The French create an independent Alawite state from a part of Syria

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#1
What if the French would have created an independent Alawite state from a part of Syria just like they separated Lebanon from Syria? This state would have borders identical to or at least very similar to those in the pink territory in this map:





This would actually have big effects due to the fact that the Alawite Assads are going to located in this independent Alawite state rather than in Syria in this scenario. Another big effect here is that after the loss of Hatay to Turkey in 1939 (due to the French), Syria is going to be completely landlocked in this scenario--unless, of course, the French allow Syria to keep a narrow corridor to the Mediterranean Sea. Anyway, though, in any case, Syria's sea access is going to be either significantly reduced or completely eliminated.

Anyway, what would Syria and this independent Alawite state have looked like over the last 80 years in this scenario? Also, what effects would this partition of Syria have had on the rest of its neighborhood?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#2
Interestingly enough, Bashar al-Assad's grandfather (and Hafez al-Assad's father) was actually an Alawite separatist and pro-French back in the 1930s:

Ali Sulayman al-Assad - Wikipedia

Also, I wonder if a landlocked or almost landlocked Syria might be much more interested in a union with Jordan than it was in real life. After all, at least that way it is going to get access to the Gulf of Aqaba. Plus, Jordan is an artificial country/creation anyway.
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#3
The French probably would have left some small corridor to the sea so Syria could function. However after independence Syria would probably invade and conquer the alawite state, leading to years of rebellion. The main difference for this would be the potential absence of Syria in the later wars with Israel as they are busy with other things. Also a lack of support for the Palestinians, possibly preventing the rise of HAMAS.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#4
The French probably would have left some small corridor to the sea so Syria could function. However after independence Syria would probably invade and conquer the alawite state, leading to years of rebellion. The main difference for this would be the potential absence of Syria in the later wars with Israel as they are busy with other things. Also a lack of support for the Palestinians, possibly preventing the rise of HAMAS.
Agreed about the small corridor part. As for conquering this Alawite state, I'm actually unsure that Syria would be able to pull this off. After all, the Alawite region is protected by mountains:



Plus, this independent Alawite state might rely on military assistance from France and/or Israel--perhaps even up to the point of having an alliance with one or both of these countries (especially with France). So, again, I don't think that it would be particular easy for Syria to conquer this region. I do wonder if a Syria-Jordan union is much more likely in this scenario due to Syria's much shorter coastline, though. Probably not since I doubt that the Syrian elite would be willing to give up political power if their country still has a coastline--however narrow; however, who knows?
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#5
The alawite state would have a very small population, and would be very small in size. it wouldn't take much for Syria to conquer them. Israel had its hands full with other things (fighting Egypt and such) and didn't even border the Alawite state, so little assistance they could provide. France could paly a major role but they had their hands full with Vietnam and Algeria, I doubt they would care enough to intervene. I see no reason for Syria to unite with Jordan, they didn't in real life, so no reason in this reality. This could be comparable to the two Yemen states during the cold war.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#6
The alawite state would have a very small population, and would be very small in size. it wouldn't take much for Syria to conquer them. Israel had its hands full with other things (fighting Egypt and such) and didn't even border the Alawite state, so little assistance they could provide. France could paly a major role but they had their hands full with Vietnam and Algeria, I doubt they would care enough to intervene.
I think that even a France that was busy in Vietnam and/or Algeria would be willing to intervene to protect a small Alawite state that is pro-French from a Syrian reconquest, though. The French brand would take a severe hit if France threw the Alawite Francophiles under the bus.

I also wonder if the US could be a possible ally for the Alawites.

I see no reason for Syria to unite with Jordan, they didn't in real life, so no reason in this reality. This could be comparable to the two Yemen states during the cold war.
You mean Syria and Jordan being comparable to the two Yemens?
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#7
I think that even a France that was busy in Vietnam and/or Algeria would be willing to intervene to protect a small Alawite state that is pro-French from a Syrian reconquest, though. The French brand would take a severe hit if France threw the Alawite Francophiles under the bus.

I also wonder if the US could be a possible ally for the Alawites.



You mean Syria and Jordan being comparable to the two Yemens?
No, Syria and the alawite state would be comparable to the two Yemens.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#8
Oh. Well, unlike the two Yemens, they would be unlikely to reunify after the end of the Cold War. I mean, Lebanon also used to be a part of (French) Syria and yet it never reunified with Syria.
 

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