The history of Climate Change

Jun 2017
422
USA
It's actually much much colder now than it was in in medieval times, and and it is an incredible degree colder compared to when the first cities formed back around 6-10k years ago.

In fact the sahara desert everyone worries so much about was cause due to the world getting colder since then.

Oil will run out in 100-200 years anyway and we would have to move the climate literally 10000x more to get back to the point where there is no sahara desert again. Even given the most liberal estimates of how much we might have moved the climate - which could be basically zero since the air readings don't show any increase at all - the 30s are still the hottest years on record by far.

So I am not even remotely worried. It's basically all a scam at this point. Originally it may not have been, but people will make up anything to get rich and famous, let alone to get billions in government monies.
 

Lowell2

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,541
California
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/08/cfans-forecast-for-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season/#more-23110
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.

Research conducted by Senior Scientist Jim Johnstone at my company Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified skillful new predictors for seasonal Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/08/cfans-forecast-for-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season/#more-23110
CFAN’s prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:

ACE: 134 (average value 103 since 1982)
# of U.S. landfalling hurricanes: 3 (average value 1.7 since 1900)
The frequencies of U.S. and Florida landfalling hurricanes also changes sporadically, with recent decades witnessing multiple Category 3+ hurricanes in consecutive years of 2004 and 2005, two of the most active seasons of the past century, but also multi-year periods of quiescence, including an absence of major hurricane and Florida landfalls from 2006 to 2015.
 

Lowell2

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,541
California
contrary to many media assertions, the following study shows flooding in Great Britain is - normal.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1631–1650, 2017
HESS - Abstract - High-magnitude flooding across Britain since AD 1750
doi:10.5194/hess-21-1631-2017
High-magnitude flooding across Britain since AD 1750
Neil Macdonald and Heather Sangster
Department of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZT, UK
Correspondence to: Neil Macdonald (neil.macdonald@liverpool.ac.uk)
Received: 23 July 2014 – Discussion started: 8 September 2014
Revised: 27 January 2017 – Accepted: 13 February 2017 – Published: 20 March 2017
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1631/2017/hess-21-1631-2017.pdf

Abstract. The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from high magnitude floods. A perceived increase in extreme floods in recent years has decreased public confidence in conventional flood risk estimates; the results affect society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and companies (e.g. water resource managers). Here, we show how historical records from Britain have improved understanding of high-magnitude floods, by examining past spatial and temporal variability. The findings identify that whilst recent floods are notable, several comparable periods of increased flooding
are identifiable historically, with periods of greater frequency (flood-rich periods). Statistically significant relationships between the British flood index, the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are identified.
1875 flood windsor (see The River Thames Flooding Windsor, 1870s - 1890s. Thamesweb History)
 

Lowell2

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,541
California
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/06/china-completing-another-nuclear-reactor-and-japans-court-clear-two-more-reactors-for-restart.html CNNC’s Fuqing plant will eventually house six Chinese-designed pressurized water reactors, the first four being 1087 MWe CPR-1000 units. Units 1 to 3 entered commercial operation in November 2014, October 2015 and October 2016, respectively. Unit 4 is scheduled to start up later this year.
A court in Japan has dismissed a request for an injunction against the restart of units 3 and 4 of Kyushu Electric Power Company’s Genkai nuclear power plant in Saga Prefecture. The court sided with the utility in deciding the units are safe to operate. Genkai 3 and 4 are expected to resume operation later this year, once the Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority has completed remaining safety inspections. Of Japan’s 42 operable reactors, five have so far cleared inspections confirming they meet the new regulatory safety standards and have resumed operation. These are: Kyushu’s Sendai units 1 and 2; Shikoku’s Ikata unit 3; and, Kansai’s Takahama units 3 and 4. Another 19 reactors have applied to restart.
 
Jun 2017
422
USA
another reason why political mandates have no place in actual science or engineering.
New Study: Large CO2 Emissions From Batteries Of Electric Cars | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) NEW STUDY: LARGE CO2 EMISSIONS FROM BATTERIES OF ELECTRIC CARS
Date: 12/06/17 Johan Kristensson, New Technology
Enormous hope rests on electric cars as the solution by the motor industry to climate change. However the batteries of electric cars are not environmentally friendly when manufactured. Several tonnes of carbon dioxide are being released, even before electric batteries leave the factory.

(original report. Not in English. a translator is available on the website. Transporter)

t to understand the importance of battery size here’s one example: Two standard electric cars on the market, Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model S, have batteries of approximately 30 kWh and 100 kWh respectively.

As soon as you buy the car, CO2 emissions of approximately 5.3 tonnes and 17.5 tonnes, respectively, have been released for batteries of these sizes. The numbers may be difficult to relate to. By way of comparison, a trip for a person returning from Stockholm to New York by air causes emissions of more than 600 kilograms of carbon dioxide, according to the UN organization ICAO’s calculation mode Another conclusion of the study is that about half of the emissions occur during the production of raw materials and half during the production of the battery in the factory. The mining itself accounts for only a small part of between 10-20 percent.


Mats-Ola Larsson, their colleague at IVL, has calculated how long you need to drive a petrol or diesel car before it has released as much carbon dioxide as an electric car battery. The result was 2.7 years for a battery of the same size as Nissan Leaf and 8.2 years for a battery of Tesla size, based on a series of assumptions.
Current batteries are awful. Some future potential batteries will be better.

I guess electric cars will make sense when we have fusion power, but then at the same time if we have fusion power then we could easily use it to make hydrogen fuel or even something more complex.

But I don't see the point for them today anyhow because it is basically just switching from one fossil fuel energy souce to another.
 

Lowell2

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,541
California
Current batteries are awful. Some future potential batteries will be better.

I guess electric cars will make sense when we have fusion power, but then at the same time if we have fusion power then we could easily use it to make hydrogen fuel or even something more complex.

But I don't see the point for them today anyhow because it is basically just switching from one fossil fuel energy souce to another.
Electric street cars ("buses") make some sense since an in-place grid can be created in a city which then provides the energy to run the cars. This isn't because the electricity isn't of itself more efficient -- it's because one can then remove the engine from the street car, lightening the car and thus allowing the car to carry more passenger/ cargo loads. such cars have their limits as they can only go where the "grid" provides power unless they have some auxiliary power system (which reduces the plus of payload) but if the route is well traveled and the use of such vehicles frequent, they can be a real plus. Hence the use of electric street cars/ buses and the occasional electric train.






in these instances, the source of the electricity is fundamentally irrelevant. The plus is in eliminating the engine altogether in the vehicle.
 

Lowell2

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,541
California
article admitting the "pause" did exist and acknowledging that models were in error.
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2973.htm
In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyse global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modelled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/20/the-new-consensus-on-global-warming-a-shocking-admission-by-team-climate/
pointing out the "adjustments" attempting to explain the pause as a mere data anomaly and the previous assertions that those talking about the pause existing were wrong.

No, the science isn't "settled".
 

Lowell2

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,541
California
Lowest Solar Activity In 200 Years Accompanied By High Northern Hemispheric Snow And Ice Lowest Solar Activity In 200 Years Accompanied By High Northern Hemispheric Snow And Ice
By P Gosselin on 18. June 2017
Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt present their monthly solar activity report at their Die kalte Sonne site
Historically periods of weak solar activity are associated with cooler periods and altered weather patterns. -
The current cycle SC 24 has been so quiet that it is in fact the weakest since SC 6, which took place close to 200 years ago. -


Arctic sea ice has been surprising many observers lately because it has so far refused to melt like some predicted it would. Tony Heller here https://realclimatescience.com/2017/06/more-trouble-for-arctic-alarmists/writes that the Northwest Passage is “blocked by very thick ice in the Beaufort Sea“.



Latest sea ice extent chart shows sea ice extent being back into the statistical pack. There are even forecasts that point the melt season may be a slow one, see Weatherbell Weekend Summary.https://www.weatherbell.com/#icon - See more at: Lowest Solar Activity In 200 Years Accompanied By High Northern Hemispheric Snow And Ice
 
Jun 2017
422
USA
Electric street cars ("buses") make some sense since an in-place grid can be created in a city which then provides the energy to run the cars. This isn't because the electricity isn't of itself more efficient -- it's because one can then remove the engine from the street car, lightening the car and thus allowing the car to carry more passenger/ cargo loads. such cars have their limits as they can only go where the "grid" provides power unless they have some auxiliary power system (which reduces the plus of payload) but if the route is well traveled and the use of such vehicles frequent, they can be a real plus. Hence the use of electric street cars/ buses and the occasional electric train.






in these instances, the source of the electricity is fundamentally irrelevant. The plus is in eliminating the engine altogether in the vehicle.
Yeah, that's a good idea. We should use more of those and fewer buses.