The Nationalists win the Chinese Civil War

[Kubis Gabcik]

Suppose Chiang Kai Shek and his nationalists win the Chinese Civil War. How would things be if this occurred?

 

[Futurist]

China avoids the Great Leap Backwards and the Cultural Revolution and its economic trajectory (based on PPP GDP per capita) is roughly equivalent to Taiwan's in real life. Also, China obviously gets to keep Taiwan in this scenario and there is no Korean War since the North Koreans know that they won't be able to rely on China to save their skins in this scenario. As for Vietnam, I wonder if the US would have been much more willing to invade North Vietnam in this scenario since there's no risk of Chinese intervention to help and save North Vietnam in this scenario.

 

[Devdas]

Suppose Chiang Kai Shek and his nationalists win the Chinese Civil War. How would things be if this occurred?

Ending the warlord dominance will be biggest challenge along with the integration of East Turkestan and Tibet. But lots of people would have escaped getting perished in failed policies like Great Leap Forward and Cultural revolution.

 

[Devdas]

China avoids the Great Leap Backwards and the Cultural Revolution and its economic trajectory (based on PPP GDP per capita) is roughly equivalent to Taiwan's in real life. Also, China obviously gets to keep Taiwan in this scenario and there is no Korean War since the North Koreans know that they won't be able to rely on China to save their skins in this scenario. As for Vietnam, I wonder if the US would have been much more willing to invade North Vietnam in this scenario since there's no risk of Chinese intervention to help and save North Vietnam in this scenario.

There would have constant interference from Soviet Union from up North, maybe China would have become an American ally like the second world war.

 

[Futurist]

There would have constant interference from Soviet Union from up North, maybe China would have become an American ally like the second world war.

A Chinese-US alliance is certainly very possible--though I would wonder if the US would be very happy about the possibility of China eventually eclipsing it as a global power. Still, China-US relations might be much better in this scenario than they are in real life--especially if China will eventually adopt democracy and pursue policies that are in line with those of the US.

As for the USSR, it would certainly force the Chinese to give up Mongolia but is otherwise unlikely to cause significant trouble for them. The border dispute in the Amur could be significant, though I would think that cooler heads would still prevail in this scenario just like they did in real life.

@Kubis Gabcik Would it count as a Nationalist victory if the Communists permanently kept Manchuria but the Nationalists kept everything else? Or do the Nationalists literally need to conquer all of China for them to actually declare themselves victorious in this war?

 

[Kubis Gabcik]

A Chinese-US alliance is certainly very possible--though I would wonder if the US would be very happy about the possibility of China eventually eclipsing it as a global power. Still, China-US relations might be much better in this scenario than they are in real life--especially if China will eventually adopt democracy and pursue policies that are in line with those of the US.

As for the USSR, it would certainly force the Chinese to give up Mongolia but is otherwise unlikely to cause significant trouble for them. The border dispute in the Amur could be significant, though I would think that cooler heads would still prevail in this scenario just like they did in real life.

@Kubis Gabcik Would it count as a Nationalist victory if the Communists permanently kept Manchuria but the Nationalists kept everything else? Or do the Nationalists literally need to conquer all of China for them to actually declare themselves victorious in this war?

In this situation there's a strong chance that the U.S.A and China remain allies. They like would hold military exercises together and perhaps even V-J Day celebrations. Also i can imagine some collaborative military projects like the Alpha Jet and the Eurofighter Typhoon. What do think of the possibility of them sharing nuclear weapons?

It would still count as a Nationalist victory if the Communists keep Manchukuo. All the Nationalists need to do to be victorious is control the majority of China and hold their seats in the capital of Beijing.

 

[Kubis Gabcik]

@ Futurist, What do you think becomes of the Japanese in the event of a Chinese nationalist victory? Would the Chinese and the Japanese go from bitter enemies to allies so quickly?

 

[Futurist]

In this situation there's a strong chance that the U.S.A and China remain allies. They like would hold military exercises together and perhaps even V-J Day celebrations. Also i can imagine some collaborative military projects like the Alpha Jet and the Eurofighter Typhoon. What do think of the possibility of them sharing nuclear weapons?

Theoretically, the US could station some of its nuclear weapons in China as a part of any alliance that it might have with China--similar to what it does for various European countries. That said, though, technically speaking, the US is still going to be in possessions of these nukes and thus have veto power over their use.

It would still count as a Nationalist victory if the Communists keep Manchukuo. All the Nationalists need to do to be victorious is control the majority of China and hold their seats in the capital of Beijing.

OK.

@ Futurist, What do you think becomes of the Japanese in the event of a Chinese nationalist victory? Would the Chinese and the Japanese go from bitter enemies to allies so quickly?

That might depend on just how remorseful the Japanese are for their WWII-era crimes. Of course, it certainly won't help having Hirohito remain the Emperor of Japan--even if he will become a figurehead.

 

[Kubis Gabcik]

Theoretically, the US could station some of its nuclear weapons in China as a part of any alliance that it might have with China--similar to what it does for various European countries. That said, though, technically speaking, the US is still going to be in possessions of these nukes and thus have veto power over their use.



OK.



That might depend on just how remorseful the Japanese are for their WWII-era crimes. Of course, it certainly won't help having Hirohito remain the Emperor of Japan--even if he will become a figurehead.

In the best case the Chinese and the Japanese become like Germany and the Czechoslovaks and Poles (who are NATO and EU members). I haven't interviewed any folks but I would imagine that Czechs and Poles have a higher opinion of Germans than the Chinese do of the Japanese.

 

[Futurist]

In the best case the Chinese and the Japanese become like Germany and the Czechoslovaks and Poles (who are NATO and EU members). I haven't interviewed any folks but I would imagine that Czechs and Poles have a higher opinion of Germans than the Chinese do of the Japanese.

AFAIK, though, Czechoslovak-West German and Polish-West German relations weren't exactly good during the Cold War.