The Ottomans win the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,729
SoCal
#1
What if, for whatever reason, the Ottomans would have managed to win the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878? In real life, the Russian victory in this war allowed Romania and Serbia (and perhaps Montenegro--I'll have check on this part) to become independent, Bulgaria to become autonomous, and Austria-Hungary to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina. Russia itself got Kars and Batumi Oblasts from the Ottoman Empire as a result of its victory in this war.

What would the effects of an Ottoman victory in this war have been?
 
Jan 2013
886
Toronto, Canada
#2
An Ottoman victory would have reenforced the status quo in the short term. In the long term, there would have been another Balkan revolt 10 or 20 years later and the Russians would have tried to intervene again.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,729
SoCal
#3
An Ottoman victory would have reenforced the status quo in the short term. In the long term, there would have been another Balkan revolt 10 or 20 years later and the Russians would have tried to intervene again.
The Russians didn't intervene in the 1890s when the Ottomans were slaughtering their Armenian population en masse, though.
 
Jan 2013
886
Toronto, Canada
#4
1. Intervening in the Caucuses is a lot harder than intervening in the Balkans.
2. After 1878, the western powers made it clear that Russia couldn't just carve off Ottoman territory at will.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,729
SoCal
#5
1. Intervening in the Caucuses is a lot harder than intervening in the Balkans.
How so?

2. After 1878, the western powers made it clear that Russia couldn't just carve off Ottoman territory at will.
They might have made an exception for Ottoman Armenia as long as Russia would have made it clear that it is uninterested in conquering Constantinople in this war, though.
 
Jan 2013
886
Toronto, Canada
#6
Balkan terrain is rugged, but the Caucasus are perfect for guerrilla warfare. Russia still has trouble controlling the region.

They might have made an exception for Ottoman Armenia as long as Russia would have made it clear that it is uninterested in conquering Constantinople in this war, though.
Maybe, but the British became pretty paranoid about Russian intentions after 1878.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,729
SoCal
#7
Balkan terrain is rugged, but the Caucasus are perfect for guerrilla warfare. Russia still has trouble controlling the region.
I don't seem to recall Armenians being capable of launching large-scale guerilla warfare against the Ottomans in the Caucasus, though.

Maybe, but the British became pretty paranoid about Russian intentions after 1878.
Yes, but the Ottomans' bad behavior in the Hamidian massacres cooled British enthusiasm for the Ottomans--at least temporarily.