The Ottomans win the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,419
SoCal
What if, for whatever reason, the Ottomans would have managed to win the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878? In real life, the Russian victory in this war allowed Romania and Serbia (and perhaps Montenegro--I'll have check on this part) to become independent, Bulgaria to become autonomous, and Austria-Hungary to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina. Russia itself got Kars and Batumi Oblasts from the Ottoman Empire as a result of its victory in this war.

What would the effects of an Ottoman victory in this war have been?
 
Jan 2013
1,072
Toronto, Canada
An Ottoman victory would have reenforced the status quo in the short term. In the long term, there would have been another Balkan revolt 10 or 20 years later and the Russians would have tried to intervene again.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,419
SoCal
An Ottoman victory would have reenforced the status quo in the short term. In the long term, there would have been another Balkan revolt 10 or 20 years later and the Russians would have tried to intervene again.
The Russians didn't intervene in the 1890s when the Ottomans were slaughtering their Armenian population en masse, though.
 
Jan 2013
1,072
Toronto, Canada
1. Intervening in the Caucuses is a lot harder than intervening in the Balkans.
2. After 1878, the western powers made it clear that Russia couldn't just carve off Ottoman territory at will.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,419
SoCal
1. Intervening in the Caucuses is a lot harder than intervening in the Balkans.
How so?

2. After 1878, the western powers made it clear that Russia couldn't just carve off Ottoman territory at will.
They might have made an exception for Ottoman Armenia as long as Russia would have made it clear that it is uninterested in conquering Constantinople in this war, though.
 
Jan 2013
1,072
Toronto, Canada
Balkan terrain is rugged, but the Caucasus are perfect for guerrilla warfare. Russia still has trouble controlling the region.

They might have made an exception for Ottoman Armenia as long as Russia would have made it clear that it is uninterested in conquering Constantinople in this war, though.
Maybe, but the British became pretty paranoid about Russian intentions after 1878.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,419
SoCal
Balkan terrain is rugged, but the Caucasus are perfect for guerrilla warfare. Russia still has trouble controlling the region.
I don't seem to recall Armenians being capable of launching large-scale guerilla warfare against the Ottomans in the Caucasus, though.

Maybe, but the British became pretty paranoid about Russian intentions after 1878.
Yes, but the Ottomans' bad behavior in the Hamidian massacres cooled British enthusiasm for the Ottomans--at least temporarily.
 
Jan 2013
1,072
Toronto, Canada
I don't seem to recall Armenians being capable of launching large-scale guerilla warfare against the Ottomans in the Caucasus, though.
It happened during the Ottoman expansion of the 15th & 16th centuries.
 
Jan 2013
1,072
Toronto, Canada
By the Armenians? By anyone else as well?
Lots of people, but at the time, it was just conquest or defence across difficult terrain. Guerrilla warfare didn't become a distinct military strategy until the development of modern European armies during the 18th century.
 
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