The Ottomans win the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878

Jun 2017
What if, for whatever reason, the Ottomans would have managed to win the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878? In real life, the Russian victory in this war allowed Romania and Serbia (and perhaps Montenegro--I'll have check on this part) to become independent, Bulgaria to become autonomous, and Austria-Hungary to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina. Russia itself got Kars and Batumi Oblasts from the Ottoman Empire as a result of its victory in this war.

What would the effects of an Ottoman victory in this war have been?

Might not have prevented WWI, like I've said believe the French were the main catalyst there and this scenario makes it easier not harder for the French to recruit the Russians. Certainly changes how things go, there would be no Franz Ferdinand assassination and that scenario is dead cause there's no Austrian occupation. What happens in it's place seems very hard to predict though and WWI might just happen anyway in a different context. Seems very hard to say.

Ottomans might be screwed anyway seeing how there's several subsequent pre WWI regional wars where the Orthodox satellites showed their capability to beat the Ottomans by their lonesome but the big alternative reality's I see are Bosnia and Russia suffering this humiliation a bit earlier(though it can be argued Russia was still humiliated even in victory given how the settlement went down with no Constantinople and Bosnia going to Austria, Russia might even be less humiliated in defeat given they wouldn't be forced by outside powers to back down on their demands they'd have just failed. Not sure if winning and losing changes how it's viewed in Russia all too much cause Russia's main reason for fighting the Ottomans was to get Constantinople and win or lose they don't get it. Kind of like an Italy sore winner thing though of course later humiliations were required to induce the Russians stubborn 1914 front.
Likes: Futurist


Ad Honoris
May 2014
If WWI still occurs in this scenario and the Entente/Allies still win it, how are the Balkans likely to get partitioned after the end of WWI in this scenario? After all, in this scenario, I'm presuming that the Ottomans are going to keep their 1815 borders in the west until WWI, no?