The Post-World War II Peace Settlement if France Doesn't Fall and if Hitler is Kaput

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
#1
How exactly would the post-World War II peace settlement look if France doesn't fall in 1940 or afterwards and if Hitler and the Nazis will successfully get overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle in 1941?

To elaborate on this:

Maurice Gamelin decides that sending the French strategic reserve to the Low Countries in 1940 is a bad move and thus decided to keep it at Rheims as per the original plan. Thus, the German advance through the Ardennes is successfully halted, as in another German advance through Belgium. Afterwards, the front lines stabilize in the Ardennes and in northern Belgium (with Germany occupying eastern Belgium and all of the Netherlands). In the winter of 1940-1941, in an attempt to break this stalemate, Hitler orders another offensive. While this offensive initially makes some successes and results in the Germans capturing the rest of Belgium and parts of northern France, the Germans fail to get to Paris. Afterwards, Britain and France launch their first large-scale counteroffensive in World War II and successfully push the Germans out of northern France and out of western Belgium. This debacle convinces the Schwarze Kapelle that they should try overthrowing Hitler and the Nazis as soon as possible. Thus, the Schwarze Kapelle "gears into action" and successfully overthrows Hitler and the Nazis in either mid-1941 or late 1941 (with Hitler and all of the other big Nazis being either killed or imprisoned by the Schwarze Kapelle).

After its successful coup, the Schwarze Kapelle officially (and publicly) announces that the war will continue but simultaneously privately sends peace feelers to Britain and France. Basically, the Schwarze Kapelle will want to keep as much of its territorial gains as possible, a fact which it will make crystal-clear to Britain and France. Also, though, the Schwarze Kapelle will tell Britain and France that Germany is prepared to endure World War I-style casualties if it does not get a peace deal that it can live with. Thus, my question here is this--can the Schwarze Kapelle and the Anglo-French alliance come to a peace deal which both sides can live with? If so, then exactly how would such a peace deal look like? Also, how long is it going to take for them to reach such a peace deal (if at all)? (After all, please remember that there is no armistice in this scenario; rather, the war continue at the same time that Germany, Britain, and France secretly pursue peace negotiations.)

(Also, though, here is some additional information for you--Mussolini still invades Greece in late 1940 and gets bogged down in a stalemate there. Afterwards, in the winter of 1940-1941, Horthy and Stalin secretly agree to partition Romania between the two of them, with the Carpathian Mountains being the dividing line. Shortly afterwards, Hungary and the Soviet Union jointly invade Romania. However, Stalin doesn't stop there--rather, he also invades Bulgaria shortly afterwards. In addition to this, Stalin offers Horthy and Mussolini a secret deal to partition Yugoslavia and Greece (for Greece, excluding Hungary) between them. Due to him still being stuck in a stalemate in Greece, Mussolini reluctantly accepts Stalin's offer (as does Horthy). Thus, by late 1941, eastern Romania, Bulgaria, eastern Greece, Serbia, and eastern Bosnia are under Soviet control while Albania, western Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, western Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia are under Italian control and while Transylvania are the Hungarian-majority parts of Serbia (in Vojvodina) are under Hungarian control.

Thus, Britain and France are also going to need to somehow deal with the "aggressive trio" (Mussolini, Horthy, and Stalin) after they finish fighting Germany.)

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,029
SoCal
#2
Also, for what it's worth, the front lines in World War II in late 1941 in this scenario closely match the armistice line of November 1918 from World War I (but with the exception of all or almost all of Alsace-Lorraine still being under French control (due to the Maginot Line successfully protecting Alsace-Lorraine from any German invasion(s)) and with all or almost all of the Netherlands being under German occupation):

 
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Sam-Nary

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
6,787
At present SD, USA
#3
Also, for what it's worth, the front lines in World War II in late 1941 in this scenario closely match the armistice line of November 1918 from World War I (but with all or almost all of the Netherlands being under German occupation):

Such a line wouldn't be possible, as it would mean that the Germans overran the Maginot completely, something they didn't do in history in the conquest of France.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,029
SoCal
#4
Such a line wouldn't be possible, as it would mean that the Germans overran the Maginot completely, something they didn't do in history in the conquest of France.
Agreed, and that was a Freudian slip on my part; I have now fixed this error of mine. :)

Is that better?

Also, though, do you have any thoughts on this scenario of mine, Sam-Nary?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,029
SoCal
#5
In addition to this, if this information is relevant, I would like to point out that the Nazis already killed at least several hundred thousand of the Jews under their control before they got overthrown in 1941 in this scenario. :(
 

Sam-Nary

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
6,787
At present SD, USA
#7
Agreed, and that was a Freudian slip on my part; I have now fixed this error of mine. :)

Is that better?

Also, though, do you have any thoughts on this scenario of mine, Sam-Nary?
With regards to the German/Allied conflict? My thoughts on this are going to be the same on the "If France won the Battle of France" thread. How much the Germans are going to get is going to depend on what they're willing to give up and how the war goes...

If the Allies win strategic victories, but don't crush the Germans in them... essentially the sort of attritional victories they won in WWI...it'd take awhile for ANY serious German resistance to Hitler to build, given how long it took for the army to begin trying to kill Hitler in history. The victories might enrage Hitler and lead to either further mistakes in his attacks... or dismissing generals for perceived failures, but unless Germany is looking at complete and utter collapse... any resistance against Hitler by the army will be limited and ineffective...

However, if the Allies not only win strategic victories but win decisively and inflict heavy losses on the Germans, that might give the German resistance to Hitler more courage and more support. However, it should still be noted that even in history, when the Soviets began winning these sorts of battles at Stalingrad and then again at Kursk, through the loss of Africa and Italy, and the defeat in the Overlord Campaign... the German Resistance, while brave, never had the strength to overpower the Nazi regime. There were too many officers who were Nazis in terms of their ideology, that would have turned on the army in support of the Nazis if the army voiced any disillusionment. See Otto Remer for an example of this... and even look at Kluge, who was involved in the attempt to blow up Hitler's plane, but chickened out of Valkyrie...

However, should the army somehow manage to successfully overthrow Hitler... the terms that the Allies would likely demand at the very least would be a return to the borders agreed on at Munich in 1938 and the reestablishment of the Free Polish government in Warsaw, as well as the governments in Belgium, Luxembourg, and Holland... The Allies might also want the restoration of Austria as an independent state and the restoration of Czechoslovakia... but those demands might only come about if Germany rejects the base demands and fights on... essentially fighting to the bitter end as Germany did in history.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
#8
With regards to the German/Allied conflict? My thoughts on this are going to be the same on the "If France won the Battle of France" thread. How much the Germans are going to get is going to depend on what they're willing to give up and how the war goes...
OK.

If the Allies win strategic victories, but don't crush the Germans in them... essentially the sort of attritional victories they won in WWI...it'd take awhile for ANY serious German resistance to Hitler to build, given how long it took for the army to begin trying to kill Hitler in history. The victories might enrage Hitler and lead to either further mistakes in his attacks... or dismissing generals for perceived failures, but unless Germany is looking at complete and utter collapse... any resistance against Hitler by the army will be limited and ineffective...
One thing, though--Hitler's massive victories in 1940-1942 might have given him an aura of invincibility that took some time to wear off in real life. In contrast, Hitler is not going to have these massive victories in real life in order to make him look invincible. Plus, unlike in real life, the Allies (specifically Britain and France) almost certainly won't insist on unconditional surrender in this scenario.

However, if the Allies not only win strategic victories but win decisively and inflict heavy losses on the Germans, that might give the German resistance to Hitler more courage and more support.
Agreed.

However, it should still be noted that even in history, when the Soviets began winning these sorts of battles at Stalingrad and then again at Kursk, through the loss of Africa and Italy, and the defeat in the Overlord Campaign... the German Resistance, while brave, never had the strength to overpower the Nazi regime. There were too many officers who were Nazis in terms of their ideology, that would have turned on the army in support of the Nazis if the army voiced any disillusionment. See Otto Remer for an example of this... and even look at Kluge, who was involved in the attempt to blow up Hitler's plane, but chickened out of Valkyrie...
Yes, you are very much correct in regards to this. Of course, please see my point above about Hitler acquiring an aura of invincibility a result of his victories in 1940-1942 in real life.

However, should the army somehow manage to successfully overthrow Hitler... the terms that the Allies would likely demand at the very least would be a return to the borders agreed on at Munich in 1938 and the reestablishment of the Free Polish government in Warsaw, as well as the governments in Belgium, Luxembourg, and Holland...
What about Danzig and the Memelland? Would Germany be allowed to keep those two areas?

Also, would Germany be required to disarm and/or to pay reparations to some or all of the Allies?

In addition to this, though, would Germany be required to restore democracy within its borders and to repeal all of its anti-Semitic legislation?

Finally, would Germany be required to hand over all Nazi war criminals to the Allies so that the Allies can put them on trial?

The Allies might also want the restoration of Austria as an independent state and the restoration of Czechoslovakia... but those demands might only come about if Germany rejects the base demands and fights on... essentially fighting to the bitter end as Germany did in history.
Frankly, I don't see the Schwarze Kapelle fighting on if they will get a good enough peace deal from Britain and France. After all, Hitler and the Nazis appear to have had a love of war and fighting that the Schwarze Kapelle does not appear to have. (Indeed, I suppose that one can argue that for Hitler and the Nazis, war and fighting eventually became ends in themselves rather than means to an end.)

Also, though, Germany ended up losing much more than that in real life. After all, getting pushed back all the way up to the Oder-Neisse Line in the East and getting partitioned for almost half a century is certainly a much more severe punishment than simply being forced to return to its 1937 borders.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
#9
Also, out of curiosity--how exactly do you think that Britain and France will respond to Mussolini's, Horthy's, and Stalin's aggression (as per my posts above) in the Balkans (in other words, southeastern Europe) after they are done fighting Germany, Sam-Nary? After all, while Britain and France were busy fighting Germany, Mussolini, Horthy, and Stalin were able to partition the Balkans (southeastern Europe) between the three of them! (Again, please see my posts above for a more detailed explanation.)
 

WeisSaul

Ad Honorem
Mar 2012
2,836
New Amsterdam
#10
No Fall of France means a shorter war.

There are more French soldiers, the Italians don't enter the war opportunistically, the French Navy is still sailing around, the Japanese don't move into Indochina, the Germans don't get access to French industry, and the British don't have to waste resources in Syria and Lebanon.
 
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