The republicans win the Spanish Civil War

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,746
SoCal
#1
What if the republicans would have somehow won the Spanish Civil War in the late 1930s? What would Spain under their rule have looked like and what would have happened afterwards to Spain, Spain's colonies, and the rest of the neighborhood?
 
Nov 2010
7,647
Cornwall
#2
Spain's colonies were already gone by then, unless you count Spanish Sahara and Equatorial Guinea (which is hardly worth it).

Their rule would have looked a bit like the Republican rule in the first place, which is why a general rebellion occurred. Terrible polarised politics in the 20s and 30s
 
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caldrail

Ad Honorem
Feb 2012
5,296
#3
It might well have made the Cold War a more complicated campaign! That said, with such a regime, one wonders if Hitler would have risked an invasion hoping to take Gibraltar.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,746
SoCal
#4
Spain's colonies were already gone by then, unless you count Spanish Sahara and Equatorial Guinea (which is hardly worth it).
There's also Spanish northern Morocco, no?

Their rule would have looked a bit like the Republican rule in the first place, which is why a general rebellion occurred. Terrible polarised politics in the 20s and 30s
So, they wouldn't have learned any lessons from their 1930s experiences and thus might have opened themselves up to a Nazi invasion of their country after the fall of France?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,746
SoCal
#5
It might well have made the Cold War a more complicated campaign! That said, with such a regime, one wonders if Hitler would have risked an invasion hoping to take Gibraltar.
After the fall of France, if Hitler sees the Spanish republicans as being too cozy with Britain, the USSR, and/or the US, then a Nazi invasion of Spain is certainly a very real possibility--especially if poor republican governance triggers additional unrest in Spain after the republicans win the civil war there.
 
Feb 2012
5,296
#6
Gibraltar was a more tempting target. it would severely hamper British logistics in Axis hands. Hitler did try to get Franco to allow an invasion force permission to move through Spain but Franco insisted that Britain must be invaded before he'd allow it. Of course, a pro-soviet Spain next door to a British outpost much desired by Spain takes that scenario to a difficult Cold War situation.
 
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May 2016
5,541
Portugal
#7
Their rule would have looked a bit like the Republican rule in the first place, which is why a general rebellion occurred. Terrible polarised politics in the 20s and 30s
The republic turned even more to the left during the civil war and established strong connections with the Soviet Union that couldn’t be easily broken. The Communist party was the main political force of the republic by then, so I think that is fair to consider that a Republican win would lead the republic to a different path of the pre-1939 republic.

After the fall of France, if Hitler sees the Spanish republicans as being too cozy with Britain, the USSR, and/or the US, then a Nazi invasion of Spain is certainly a very real possibility--especially if poor republican governance triggers additional unrest in Spain after the republicans win the civil war there.
A Republican Spain would have eventually dragged Spain and Portugal to the war, after the fall of France. The Iberian Peninsula would eventually fall. Azores, Madeira, Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands would be invaded by British Forces.
 
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May 2014
19,746
SoCal
#8
The republic turned even more to the left during the civil war and established strong connections with the Soviet Union that couldn’t be easily broken. The Communist party was the main political force of the republic by then, so I think that is fair to consider that a Republican win would lead the republic to a different path of the pre-1939 republic.
So, a Communist Spain?

A Republican Spain would have eventually dragged Spain and Portugal to the war, after the fall of France. The Iberian Peninsula would eventually fall. Azores, Madeira, Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands would be invaded by British Forces.
A republican Spain would have only entered the war after Operation Barbarossa starts, no? Also, I wonder if Britain plus the republican forces in Spain could have been able to permanently hold onto a part of continental Spain.
 
May 2016
5,541
Portugal
#9
So, a Communist Spain? .
Mostly. Even if in the subsequent years we would see a fight among the left forces there. The communist would probably prevail.

A republican Spain would have only entered the war after Operation Barbarossa starts, no? Also, I wonder if Britain plus the republican forces in Spain could have been able to permanently hold onto a part of continental Spain.
The Germans had supported and fought along the Nationalists. The Nationalists loose the war. Will Germany wait to be dragged in the Soviet Union to fight in Spain? Again in two fronts? We are one a speculative scenario, so everything is possible. But I think more possible that Germany would attack Spain, Portugal and Gibraltar in 1940, after the fall of France. The Candy to control the entry to the Mediterranean Sea would be too good to be truth. Don’t think that the UK was in conditions to hold any part of the Iberian Peninsula, even if there was a plan to hold Lisbon, as Wellington did during the Peninsular War.

Meanwhile the Germans would have plenty of collaborators among the defeated Nationalists. Even in Portugal there was some right wing tendencies that could support the Germans.

The UK would have to be satisfied with the Islands and with the support of the Portuguese colonies.
 
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