The US withdraws from NATO and retreats back into isolationism after the end of the Cold War

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
While this probably isn't very likely, what if the US would have followed the path that it took back in 1919 and withdrew from NATO and retreated back into isolationism after the end of the Cold War? For the record, the US would still strongly support Europe economically and European countries would be able to keep NATO in existence--but with it becoming an exclusively European and Canadian alliance.

Anyway, what effects would such a development have on the US, Europe, the ex-USSR countries, and other parts of the world? For instance, is the EU still going to expand eastwards in this scenario? What about NATO? Is it still going to expand eastwards in this scenario? Also, is Russia going to be much more revanchist in this scenario than it was in real life?
 

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,171
US
You reference the EU and NATO. They aren't synonymous, are they? Without American support of NATO the EU would have a much different ask at hand, at least on irts nascent years. Russia wasn't much of a military force in the early 1990s, so I don't believe there would have been anything dire. But as the new century dawned, NATO would have to have made some decisions, as afr as its military development, as Russia tried to flex its muscles.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
You reference the EU and NATO. They aren't synonymous, are they?
No, they're not.

Without American support of NATO the EU would have a much different task at hand, at least on its nascent years.
I corrected some typos in your post here, Rodger! :)

Anyway, Yes, the EU would have to focus on strengthening itself more in this scenario. Of course, British and French nukes could still provide security for Europe, but their numbers pale in comparison to Russian nukes and thus Britain and France might need to engage in massive nuclear weapons construction in this scenario.

I do wonder if the EU is still going to expand eastwards in this scenario. Likewise, I wonder if a US-free NATO is still going to expand eastwards in this scenario.

Russia wasn't much of a military force in the early 1990s, so I don't believe there would have been anything dire. But as the new century dawned, NATO would have to have made some decisions, as far as its military development, as Russia tried to flex its muscles.
Yeah, Russia wasn't a threat in the 1990s, but once Russia would have recovered from its decline, the Europeans would have had to watch out for Russia--a Russia that might have very well still had an appetite to expand.
 

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,171
US
No, they're not.



I corrected some typos in your post here, Rodger! :)

Anyway, Yes, the EU would have to focus on strengthening itself more in this scenario. Of course, British and French nukes could still provide security for Europe, but their numbers pale in comparison to Russian nukes and thus Britain and France might need to engage in massive nuclear weapons construction in this scenario.

I do wonder if the EU is still going to expand eastwards in this scenario. Likewise, I wonder if a US-free NATO is still going to expand eastwards in this scenario.



Yeah, Russia wasn't a threat in the 1990s, but once Russia would have recovered from its decline, the Europeans would have had to watch out for Russia--a Russia that might have very well still had an appetite to expand.
I don't foresee the U.S. withdrawing from NATO. But, if it did in the early 1990s, the NATO nations would had to increase their military spending. As Russia recovered and tried to influence the NATO portion of Europe, a different diplomatic approach may have been necessary too. Which nation in particular would have been the mouthpiece, and sometimes the hammer, when addressing Russia under this speculative scenario?
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
I don't foresee the U.S. withdrawing from NATO.
Yeah, it would have been easier for the US to remain isolationist in the early 1940s as a result of France not falling. That could have resulted in a Cold War with relatively minimal US involvement after the end of WWII. The problem is, though, that this would have resulted in a gap of several decades where the butterfly effect could have greatly affected things. Thus, I created this scenario instead even though it would have been less likely.

But, if it did in the early 1990s, the NATO nations would had to increase their military spending.
Agreed.

As Russia recovered and tried to influence the NATO portion of Europe, a different diplomatic approach may have been necessary too. Which nation in particular would have been the mouthpiece, and sometimes the hammer, when addressing Russia under the speculative scenario?
Perhaps a coalition of Germany, France, Britain, Italy, and perhaps Spain and/or Poland as well? Of course, out of these, Germany is probably going to be the leader of the pack.
 
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