Well I'm not a Reza Aslan fan(exaggerates his credentials, goes beyond apologizing for Islam to changing the definition of it and religions to something they clearly aren't and he also brags too much which mixed with the credential stretching does hurt his credibility IMO), but something he always mentioned I found interesting was that in these times truth wasn't really important when crafting mythology compared to the story and the message it conveyed and that just by looking for historical record we are misunderstanding the story. We do take shared commitment to historical accuracy for granted(tbf we really don't have another choice except to believe nothing) and I think here a millenia earlier those things he was discussing would be doubly true. I would be inclined to say none of it was true and it was all mythology, the story is quite mythological at face value. However if you are looking at the theory Moses and the story are based on "model's", my first strong inclination would be to look outside of Egypt. There is no evidence of the Jews being in Egypt and if the story were true elsewhere in a more obscure setting, modeling it around Egypt would certainly give the story added emphasis and importance and the story might have been based on the actual Jewish origins elsewhere. Not saying I believe the myth stuff but slavery was rampant in the Middle East in early times and I can see the story being based on true less riveting events elsewhere. Back to the idea of morals mattering more than truth, based on the timing of the Talmund is it possible this was just being used as a metaphor for the Babylon episode to inspire the people same way it can be argued the Messiah concept was? The timing would make sense and if the truth was irrelevant and the priority was the message wouldn't this be just the sort of story the Jews would need at this time in history?Akhenaten doesn't fit well ... Moses and the Israelites looked more like New Kingdom Egyptian worshippers [with a votive Ark, a hiddle place where it stayed with the presence of God ... Atensits hadn't an Ark and their temples hadn't a hidden place to host the deity: the Aten was visible in the sky and to adore it, their temples hadn't the roof ... they were literally under the sun in their temples.
This said, being in the speculative section we can speculate without troubles. I'm not thinking that the Exodus happened like described in the Bible. In that period of the history of Ancient Egytp there were not a few medium size migrations of Semitic populations to Egypt and back. Groups of Asian tribes entered Egypt and left it without needing plagues to persuade the Horo to leave them go ...
What I'm wondering, actually, is if this was a myth invented by the authors or it was a kind of literary construction built during centuries acquiring a piece here and a piece there. So I have made a mere exercise to see if there was a potential "model" for the literary figure of Moses. Prince Thutmose is a good one [but there are others as well].
The nature of the story and the time it was written makes me believe it wasn't a piece by piece thing as unlike the New Testament which is trying to scrape together the life and times of a relatively obscure man who was dead for a few generations, the Old Testament does at least to some extent claim to be a history and we know at some point it was much more accurate, the drop off in quality makes me inclined to believe they just filled in a creation myth and origin story before their contemporary political history because the former was considerably less accurate than the latter and if they were willing to build a literary construction around Egypt you'd think they'd have strayed more from the truth later(and maybe they did but the later Old Testament stuff largely checks out, while the Egypt story would require a ton of reaching to even be possible). If it was based on something else the long migration to Israel would explain the drop off in quality though, so it's certainly a good case but if that sort of thing did happen they certainly did a poor job preserving it regardless of the reason. .