What are the most plausible/realistic ways to have the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth survive up to the present-day?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,631
SoCal
What are the most plausible/realistic ways to have the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth survive up to the present-day? Basically, I want a PLC that successfully avoids partition by its neighbors and that avoids getting absorbed by any of its neighbors.

Also, what would the effects of a surviving PLC be on the PLC territories themselves, on the rest of Europe, and on the rest of the world?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,631
SoCal
I'm also curious if a surviving PLC would eventually try to expand--such as into Novorossiya and/or into East Prussia.
 
Feb 2014
322
Miami
Have France win the 7 years war. I believe they were an ally of the commonwealth. It would also weaken Prussia at the expense of Austria who was also allied before the partitions.

The war of independence would still occur as the British demand even harsher taxes for reparations against the French. They would keep their colonial gains from the French in the Americas and India.

Poland would probably be the beacon for the Jews. They were highly tolerated in this country the country should become a constitutional monarchy no later than the 1848 revolutions.

I do not think the polish had recovered well after the deluge so I still don’t see them reclaiming their losses against the Russians until maybe a similar-like Crimean war. Maybe reclaim Moldavia from the ottomans before this as well
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,631
SoCal
Have France win the 7 years war. I believe they were an ally of the commonwealth. It would also weaken Prussia at the expense of Austria who was also allied before the partitions.
How do you have France win? I mean, I could see Russia winning if Empress Elizabeth lives longer, but is that in itself actually going to be enough for France to win?
 
Feb 2014
322
Miami
How do you have France win? I mean, I could see Russia winning if Empress Elizabeth lives longer, but is that in itself actually going to be enough for France to win?
If Russian remains in the war longer, I don’t foresee Prussia being able to maintain the war.

At least win in continental Europe. I also added some to the previous one! And lose the colonial wars to Britain. Semi draw? It isn’t a life and death struggle like against Napoleon was. I could foresee France and Britain coming to a negotiated peace in favor of Britain getting the same colonies it did, but also weakening Prussia and giving Silesia to Austria.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,631
SoCal
Have France win the 7 years war. I believe they were an ally of the commonwealth. It would also weaken Prussia at the expense of Austria who was also allied before the partitions.

The war of independence would still occur as the British demand even harsher taxes for reparations against the French. They would keep their colonial gains from the French in the Americas and India.

Poland would probably be the beacon for the Jews. They were highly tolerated in this country the country should become a constitutional monarchy no later than the 1848 revolutions.

I do not think the polish had recovered well after the deluge so I still don’t see them reclaiming their losses against the Russians until maybe a similar-like Crimean war. Maybe reclaim Moldavia from the ottomans before this as well
Is Poland actually going to be able to put its house in order by 1848, though? Also, might a surviving PLC eventually get completely absorbed by Russia?

If Russian remains in the war longer, I don’t foresee Prussia being able to maintain the war.

At least win in continental Europe. I also added some to the previous one! And lose the colonial wars to Britain. Semi draw? It isn’t a life and death struggle like against Napoleon was. I could foresee France and Britain coming to a negotiated peace in favor of Britain getting the same colonies it did, but also weakening Prussia and giving Silesia to Austria.
Makes sense.
 
Feb 2014
322
Miami
Is Poland actually going to be able to put its house in order by 1848, though? Also, might a surviving PLC eventually get completely absorbed by Russia?



Makes sense.

I know one of the things that lead to the partition was the ottoman Russian war of 1868. The Austrians threatened to intervene but Frederick the great negotiated to redirect Russian expansion to instead Poland which was a weak state. With the loss of Silesia to Austria, I would foresee Prussia not be willing to prevent a war where its rival would certainly be outmatched against the Russians and could probably aly against the Austrians with the Russians.

I am sure Russia may probably eat Poland eventually, but I can’t think of a way France would oppose Russia. Her and Britain would still be in debt after the 7 years war which occurred 5 years prior. Maybe the treaty and cease fire breaks down with France joining Austria against Russia?

But Britain would always join the weaker side, and would certainly never help her millineal old rival of France. Maybe seek to finish off the rest of her colonies? But I don’t foresee someone winning against the Russians. But maybe Poland could be a good buffer state against Europe?
 
Last edited:
Feb 2014
322
Miami
Is Poland actually going to be able to put its house in order by 1848, though? Also, might a surviving PLC eventually get completely absorbed by Russia?



Makes sense.
Also one thing for a France and allies negotiated peace.

I didn’t know until I read a little bit more. Prussia would probably Hand over pommeria to Sweden.

Spain may annex European Portugal with their government most likely relocating to Brazil.

As both were allied to French side.