What are the odds of one person destroying civilization as we know it ?


Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
Its a fact that there are people with a major grudge (perhaps something traumatic has happened in their childhood or perhaps - like Thanos- they consider that mankind must be destroyed for some greated good) against mankind in general.

At any point in time there are dozens of such people in any of the major nuclear powers.... What are the odds that a sufficiently motivated, ruthless and wily person of this kind makes it to the top (aka Stalin, Hitler etc...) and engineers a situation that leads to a major nuclear exchange ?

Alternative scenario: a group of such people helping each other to achieve that goal (which I think is less likely, as it is more difficult to keep a team in line for years, all in secret... although of course it can be argued that ISIS was just such a group)