- Dec 2012
The logic that suggests Mexico would invade an independent California suggests that the United States of America would invade Canada. The latter isn't happening, so what makes you think the former would happen? Besides, even were Mexico to commit enough of its army to overcome the California National Guard and subdue its people (which might not even be economically or logistically possible for it, but simply supposing for the sake of discussion), it would probably result in the United States of America intervening, not necessarily out of any concern for California itself so much as to avoid having a military aggressive rogue state on its doorstep. It is entirely possible that secession could eventually turn California into a "Latin American" country in the long term, but that's more a result of their immigration policy choices than any threat of invasion from Mexico.
Would a independent California be a nation without a military? And I'm not just referring to the existing National Guard, I'm talking about a full fledged army, navy, air force, etc.
I asked a similar question a while back in a thread about Scotland leaving the UK. What happens to all the British bases in Scotland? What happens, in the event that Scotland seceded, to Scottish troops serving in the British armed forces?
I don't know the answers to these questions, but I'm assuming an independent California would have plans for creating a military.
And maybe an independent California remains an ally of the United States? In that case, there's no way Mexico is invading.
Lastly, I'm guessing many of California's citizens would take issue with being invaded by Mexico. I don't expect that these folks would sit idly by.