What if Japan does not attack the United States?

Nov 2019
334
United States
I'll let this one go, as it has many permutations:
1.) Russia is now in greater threat, it is much more difficult to remove it's divisions from the Manchurian borders, making the Russian winter campaign of 1941 a much more dicey probability.
2.) America's entry into war with Germany is a much longer term event, popular opinion in the U.S. is still muddled regarding intervention, and the 1942 Congressional elections loom as a potential roadblock to intervention until 1943.
3.) Although Britain is in threat, Lend/Lease, and American support of convoy protection continues, Britain is building better fighters none the less, and enhancing it's A/S capabilities for convoy protection.
4.) Monty might win Al Alamein, but the Germans can still rebound in North Africa.
5.) Japan could still take on the Dutch East Indies with questions arising about America's response.
6.) Would Britain oppose the Japanese absorption of the Dutch East Indies, assuming that the oil received by Japan would further enhance it's militarism in Asia, or conversely be unable to respond as it is to heavily involved in Europe to respond?
7.) Japan's oil supply would still be threatened by potential intervention by the U.S. in the supply lanes through the South China Sea, but not convinced that the U. S. would attack.
8.) Could Germany have been in a position in 1942 to acquire the oil fields of Baku and keep them as the Russians are now facing a probable two front war? Or would Stalingrad still have become the foolish focus of the NAZI's?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kubis Gabcik
May 2013
117
there
If Japan does not attack then the US oil embargo would cripple the Japanese economy and war machine. So its options were either find another source of oil, withdraw from China or run out of oil. Now could Japan have attacked the Dutch In Asia without the US declaring war?
 
Oct 2011
839
What about the Philippines? Do they leave US troops and planes alone? What about the Brits in Singapore? If they attack and take PI with the same outcome do you think the US would sit idly by?
 

MG1962a

Ad Honorem
Mar 2019
2,351
Kansas
I'll let this one go, as it has many permutations:
Some of this is going to depend on what Japan actually does. While the scenario relies on not attacking American assets. Do they still roll through Malaysia and into Burma.

If not, that makes the British position in North Africa a lot stronger.
 
Nov 2019
334
United States
Just like the did with Indochina, they can ask Germany to make the occupied Dutch government allow them to occupy the Dutch East Indies. When the Free Dutch Navy fights them, they sink it, and claim that force had no legal right to resist.

The attack and take Singapore and Malaysia, and in turn Burma. They also take Hong Kong, and intere any British ships.

The Dutch East Indies takes care of the Japanese oil needs.

They do not attack the Philippines, or touch any American island or vessel.
 
Nov 2019
334
United States
I'm going to guess that if the Germans hoped Japan might attack Russia, they would have been more interested in sharing technology.
 

MG1962a

Ad Honorem
Mar 2019
2,351
Kansas
I'm going to guess that if the Germans hoped Japan might attack Russia, they would have been more interested in sharing technology.
'
Oddly enough they did not tell the Japanese they were going attack. Japan basically head about Barbarossa in the papers lol
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
4,978
Dispargum
At the time Japan invaded the Philippines the Filipino Army was in a state of transition. It had recently expanded from a small colonial force to an army capable of defending an independent Philippines without US assistance. However, it was still poorly trained and poorly equipped. Had Japan waited six months or a year they would have found it much more difficult to capture the Philippines due to the Filipino Army being better trained and equipped. As it was, in December 1941-May '42 Japan barely managed to accomplish the job. The Japanese commander, Homma, was criticized for the length of the campaign and after finally capturing the islands was never given a command again. He retired in 1943. The real problem, however, wasn't so much Homma as it was the small size of the Japanese invasion force and the large numbers of defenders even if they were poorly trained and equipped. The point being, that given another six months for additional training and for equipment to arrive from the US and the Philippines may have successfully resisted the Japanese invasion.
 
Nov 2019
334
United States
Was the Philippines in the end of value to Japan? The only real reason to take it was to prevent America from having a forward base by which to attack Japanese shipping. No attack against the U.S., no known reason to attack it.

In the end FDR didn't want to enter the war without a casus belli.
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
4,978
Dispargum
Was the Philippines in the end of value to Japan? The only real reason to take it was to prevent America from having a forward base by which to attack Japanese shipping. No attack against the U.S., no known reason to attack it.

In the end FDR didn't want to enter the war without a casus belli.
Agreed, except that you're trusting the US to stay neutral. I think Japan was right to protect their sea lanes between Japan and the Dutch East Indies. I doubt the US would have stayed neutral forever.