What if 'The Second Miracle of the House of Brandenburg' never happened?

Sep 2019
45
Canada
During 'The Seven Years War', by December 1761, after five years of war, the strategic situation for Prussia turned bleak despite several tactical successes. Following the defeat of Kunersdorf, Frederick the Great of Prussia was convinced that as soon as the Russian/Austrian forces crossed the river Oder, the Prussian people would be forced to fight for their lives and most likely not succeed in doing so. Following a brief occupation of Berlin, it seemed that a Prussian defeat would be imminent.
It was then, in January 1762, that the Empress Elizabeth of Russia died, and it was then that her nephew Peter III (who was soon to be ousted), succeeded her. Peter III was a true admirer or Prussia and Germanic culture, and an overall fan of Frederick the Great.
It was then, that Peter III unilaterally signed a White Peace with Prussia, and even went so far as to allow Frederick the Great to use some of his troops to fight against the Austrian, before they had to be called back to Russia.

Prussia was on the brink of total destruction before the death of Elizabeth. Being vastly outnumbered, and forced to fight in their capital, it would be fair to assume that Frederick would have lost this defense, hence this historical act being a 'miracle' for Prussia.
So, WHAT IF Elizabeth never passed away, and the Austrian/Russian forces pushed their advantage, and defeated Frederick/Prussia?
What would this mean for the future of Prussia, and quite possibly, the history of Germany itself soon to come??
 

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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,730
SoCal
Frederick loses East Prussia but maybe Frederick could make a deal with Russia whereby he could acquire Saxony. Also, I wonder if the Partitions of Poland still occur in this scenario.
 
Sep 2019
45
Canada
Frederick loses East Prussia but maybe Frederick could make a deal with Russia whereby he could acquire Saxony. Also, I wonder if the Partitions of Poland still occur in this scenario.
Very interesting. I could see that being a possibility.
Also, as for the Partitions of Poland, that is an excellent question! Perhaps it would have been split only between Russia and Austria, or perhaps Prussia would lose out and only receive tiny amounts of land.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,730
SoCal
Very interesting. I could see that being a possibility.
Yeah, at least, that's what I heard someone else (or possibly even more than one person) previously suggest.

Also, as for the Partitions of Poland, that is an excellent question! Perhaps it would have been split only between Russia and Austria, or perhaps Prussia would lose out and only receive tiny amounts of land.
Honestly, I could perhaps see Prussia expanding up to the Vistula but not beyond it during the Partitions of Poland in this TL. Thus, East Prussia will remain in Russian hands.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,730
SoCal
Frederick would be defeated, Prussia would lose east Prussia to Poland (in exchange for Courland to Russia), Silesia to Austria, the partition of Poland wouldn't happen and Prussia may never become a major power.
Couldn't Russia still see value in partitioning Poland even in a scenario where Prussia ceases to be a major power, though? (And I'm not even sure that Prussia would have actually ceased to be a major power if it would have been allowed to conquer and annex Saxony as compensation for the loss of East Prussia.)
 
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Apr 2017
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Couldn't Russia still see value in partitioning Poland even in a scenario where Prussia ceases to be a major power, though? (And I'm not even sure that Prussia would have actually ceased to be a major power if it would have been allowed to conquer and annex Saxony as compensation for the loss of East Prussia.)
The idea to partition Poland was Frederick the great's as he did not want to be drawn into a war via alliance against Austria with Russia. If Prussia was defeated in this war there would be no Prusso-Russian alliance and this wouldn't come to fruition. Additionally this alliance also put Poland under Prussian and Russian influence, excluding france. No alliance and France still has influence there, making a partition difficult.
There is no reason Prussia would be allowed to annex Saxony. Austria wanted to crush Prussia and retake Silesia, Saxony was an ally of Austria. If Prussia was completely defeated why would they give them anything?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,730
SoCal
The idea to partition Poland was Frederick the great's as he did not want to be drawn into a war via alliance against Austria with Russia.
How would partitioning Poland have helped Prussia avoid war, though?

If Prussia was defeated in this war there would be no Prusso-Russian alliance and this wouldn't come to fruition. Additionally this alliance also put Poland under Prussian and Russian influence, excluding france. No alliance and France still has influence there, making a partition difficult.
And Prussia and Russia can't still form an alliance?

There is no reason Prussia would be allowed to annex Saxony. Austria wanted to crush Prussia and retake Silesia, Saxony was an ally of Austria. If Prussia was completely defeated why would they give them anything?
Well, couldn't Russia want to have good ties with Prussia even if it would have stripped Prussia of East Prussia?
 
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Apr 2017
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How would partitioning Poland have helped Prussia avoid war, though?

And Prussia and Russia can't still form an alliance?

Well, couldn't Russia want to have good ties with Prussia even if it would have stripped Prussia of East Prussia?
Russia was in the process of seizing ottoman territory that Austria wanted (Romania), Austria threatened to ally with the ottomans to stop them, Prussia was treaty bound to side with Russia but was still rebuilding from the seven years war. Frederick the great came up with the concept of partitioning Poland instead of ottoman territories, which benefited everyone and avoided war.
Its hard to form alliances with a country after you crush them in a war and take territory.
Yeah, sure but it would be like being friends with a guy who broke into your house, beat you up and stole your computer. You can do it, but most people couldn't stomach it.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,730
SoCal
Russia was in the process of seizing ottoman territory that Austria wanted (Romania), Austria threatened to ally with the ottomans to stop them, Prussia was treaty bound to side with Russia but was still rebuilding from the seven years war. Frederick the great came up with the concept of partitioning Poland instead of ottoman territories, which benefited everyone and avoided war.
Ah; OK. So, it depends on whether or not Prussia still allies with Russia in this scenario.

Its hard to form alliances with a country after you crush them in a war and take territory.
Greece and Turkey did just that by mutually joining NATO just a couple of decades after the Turks expelled the Greeks from Anatolia.

Yeah, sure but it would be like being friends with a guy who broke into your house, beat you up and stole your computer. You can do it, but most people couldn't stomach it.
That's why I suggested using Saxony as a way to sweeten Russo-Prussian relations after the loss of East Prussia. I mean, Saxony isn't worth less than East Prussia--is it?
 
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