What if 'The Second Miracle of the House of Brandenburg' never happened?

Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#11
Ah; OK. So, it depends on whether or not Prussia still allies with Russia in this scenario.

Greece and Turkey did just that by mutually joining NATO just a couple of decades after the Turks expelled the Greeks from Anatolia.

That's why I suggested using Saxony as a way to sweeten Russo-Prussian relations after the loss of East Prussia. I mean, Saxony isn't worth less than East Prussia--is it?
Greece and Turkey put aside their differences to resist soviet expansion, a greater threat. They had also not fought each other in two decades, time enough for old wounds to heal. That and Greece in that time had been invaded by Italy and Germany and fought a civil war. Turkey wasn't on their problem list.

Saxony was an Austrian ally, Russia "giving" it to Prussia would start a war with Austria. Prussia was still recovering from the seven years war and wasn't in the mood for another war.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#12
Greece and Turkey put aside their differences to resist soviet expansion, a greater threat. They had also not fought each other in two decades, time enough for old wounds to heal. That and Greece in that time had been invaded by Italy and Germany and fought a civil war. Turkey wasn't on their problem list.
Fair enough.

Saxony was an Austrian ally, Russia "giving" it to Prussia would start a war with Austria. Prussia was still recovering from the seven years war and wasn't in the mood for another war.
But if Saxony is off-limits, why not still make a move on Poland? I mean, offering Prussia some Polish territory could be a good way for Russia to revive its alliance with Prussia.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#15
For instance, in 1945 in real life, the Poles and Soviets chose to take a lot of territory from Germany in order to make the German-Polish border as short as possible--as well as in order to give the Poles the longest border with Czechoslovakia that is reasonably possible.
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#16
Its a poor deal. East Prussia was already in Prussia (and its namesake) and had a german population. Taking it in exchange for random polish territory (which would stick out as well, so not making it "shorter") would be a poor exchange.
For comparison look at Sweden during the Napoleonic wars, they lost finland but were compensated with Norway. Norway had no history of being part of Sweden (unlike Finland) and eventually broke away. It was a bad deal.
 
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Mar 2016
1,222
Australia
#17
I recall reading in a couple of history books that covered the war (God and Kaiser by Richard Bassett, and Iron Kingdom by Christopher Clark) that a joint agreement between the three major allies (Austria, France, Russia) was to partition Prussia between themselves, ala Poland-Lithuania a few decades later. Prussia had territory that each power wanted for themselves, and the blatant aggression of Prussia (i.e. being the aggressors in multiple wars) showed that Prussia could not be tolerated to behave 'properly' as a major European state. Unlike the vast majority of wars in this era, it was a truly existential threat that Prussia faced (granted, of its own making), and defeat would have seen the destruction of the entire kingdom - Frederick was well aware of this, hence his claim that he would kill himself if defeated again.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#18
I recall reading in a couple of history books that covered the war (God and Kaiser by Richard Bassett, and Iron Kingdom by Christopher Clark) that a joint agreement between the three major allies (Austria, France, Russia) was to partition Prussia between themselves, ala Poland-Lithuania a few decades later. Prussia had territory that each power wanted for themselves, and the blatant aggression of Prussia (i.e. being the aggressors in multiple wars) showed that Prussia could not be tolerated to behave 'properly' as a major European state. Unlike the vast majority of wars in this era, it was a truly existential threat that Prussia faced (granted, of its own making), and defeat would have seen the destruction of the entire kingdom - Frederick was well aware of this, hence his claim that he would kill himself if defeated again.
Which Prussian territory would France have taken, though? I don't see any Prussian territories that France could have easily taken based on this map of Prussia's territorial possessions in 1763:



Prussia didn't actually acquire the Rhineland until 1815.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#19
Its a poor deal. East Prussia was already in Prussia (and its namesake) and had a german population. Taking it in exchange for random polish territory (which would stick out as well, so not making it "shorter") would be a poor exchange.
The Polish territory would not stick out as much. One can draw a relatively straight line based on the trajectory of the Vistula River. Russia's border with Germany would have been much straighter in 1914 had Russia controlled East Prussia:



For comparison look at Sweden during the Napoleonic wars, they lost finland but were compensated with Norway. Norway had no history of being part of Sweden (unlike Finland) and eventually broke away. It was a bad deal.
But was this failure actually visible in hindsight?

Also, please keep in mind that, AFAIK, Russia's Germans were generally reliable and loyal to it until WWI. Why would the East Prussian Germans have been any different if Russia would have decided to rule over them?
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#20
Which Prussian territory would France have taken, though? I don't see any Prussian territories that France could have easily taken based on this map of Prussia's territorial possessions in 1763:

Prussia didn't actually acquire the Rhineland until 1815.
Prussia did have several small and valuable territories in the Rhineland, they are the westernmost territories on the map.
France was to be given the Austrian Netherlands in exchange for Parma, financial and military support during the war.

If the Vistula river was the border, there would be a large chunk between Austrian and Russian territory.
Yes, Norwegians had a long had a rivalry with Sweden.
I didn't say the germans wouldn't be loyal to the Russians. In this scenario they would be ruled by Poland anyway.
 
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