What if you became Fuhrer in June 1942?

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,106
Connecticut
They were freaking out because they figured the Germans would try for Moscow again so placed most of their reserves there. When the Germans went to the Caucasus instead, they were hoodwinked.

Operationally and tactically panicking doesn't mean they would surrender as a nation.
I didn’t say they’d surrender (!!) just be more willing to negotiate.

So your improved plan is to do nearly exactly what actually happened? The Germans couldn't even get to Grozny. You should research why.
My plan calls for no attack on Stalingrad, stronger defenses along the Don and Volga, cutting of Volga traffic as was done historically and a somewhat stronger effort in the Caucasus to take Grozny and bomb Baku. Loss of oil for the Soviets would also make them more willing to negotiate and strengthen the German bargaining position.

If you try to hold western German border, same thing happens. A gigantic fire support plan and assault eventually rips a hole through the West Wall and inside Germany. Or the big ambush offensive, which is just copying the Ardenne offensive of 44, wears out the defenders to make it even easier.
But in this scenario the Germans, spared most of the losses of 1942, 1943 and early 1944, are tremendously stronger both defensively and offensively.

And you still ignore all the positives of holding France. Like strategic depth. Like industry. Like natural resources. Like high ...
Unfortunately the positives are outweighed by the negatives of fighting close to allied air bases with longer lines of communication, and battleships....

British still broke Enigma. Which means any secret attempt to move at least one army group to attack western allies, that's going to get detected.
Lol just use the same code word that misled the allies in real life—wacht Im Rhein or some such.

How are you getting peace in 42? Your plan is to do the nearly exact thing that actually happened in 42. Send too few Germans too far into the Caucasus.
No you’re misunderstanding or misrepresenting my views.
 

aggienation

Ad Honorem
Jul 2016
9,749
USA
I didn’t say they’d surrender (!!) just be more willing to negotiate.
And you still have no way of doing that. Your method is doing nearly the exact thing that Hitler did in 1942 and expecting a different result. Because?

My plan calls for no attack on Stalingrad, stronger defenses along the Don and Volga, cutting of Volga traffic as was done historically and a somewhat stronger effort in the Caucasus to take Grozny and bomb Baku. Loss of oil for the Soviets would also make them more willing to negotiate and strengthen the German bargaining position.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result.

Stalingrad was not part of Operation Blue planning, it only became an important objective later on. And why? Because they wanted to have it to hold the Volga.

Otherwise, the ONLY difference between your objective and that of actual Blue is Baku. You even earlier posted to not go beyond the Don and just changed that too. And you still have no way of hitting Baku with bombs because if you launch Blue as you want, the Luftwaffe air fleet are going to be tied up supporting your ground forces conducting an advance far beyond what they are really capable of, and unable to spend weeks hitting a far away target.

But in this scenario the Germans, spared most of the losses of 1942, 1943 and early 1944, are tremendously stronger both defensively and offensively.
No. In this scenario the exact same thing happens in 1942, because you're sending most of German strength to the Caucasus with a bad plan and the same thing happens to them come winter.

1943 and beyond simply change, they don't get better. As Fuhrer, you simply lose the war a slightly different way.

Unfortunately the positives are outweighed by the negatives of fighting close to allied air bases with longer lines of communication, and battleships....
LOL, battleships. Shorter lines of communication. Versus millions of tons of plundered natural resources and millions of almost free labor. Versus the decision to tell Germany, the Nazis, and the German military, that you plan to give France back to angry Frenchmen to use as a base for future invasion of Germany without even putting up a basic fight. LOL, I'm sure that will go over well.

Lol just use the same code word that misled the allies in real life—wacht Im Rhein or some such.
Communication discipline for the Ardenne Offensive was the reason the Allies knew so little, not because confusion over a code name. Hitler was paranoid about his generals and their loyalty and didn't tell most of them, even army commanders, until very shortly before the operation started about what it was about. They literally were only told, by courier not radio, to prepare for offensive operations by x time, and that was it. At the last moment they received movement orders (by courier, not radio) to get to their assembly areas, sometimes many hundreds of miles away, and then at the very last moment were given maps and objectives. But because Hitler was paranoid, it worked out because there was little radio traffic about it, so little SIGINT to be intercepted.

No you’re misunderstanding or misrepresenting my views.
No, I'm simply ripping them to pieces, because they are disastrous. You're unhappy, so you're fighting back.
 

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,106
Connecticut
And you still have no way of doing that. Your method is doing nearly the exact thing that Hitler did in 1942 and expecting a different result. Because?
It’s much different because Stalingrad would not be attacked hence the don and Volga flanks would retain their strength, and the Germans would be able to impede Soviet oil production on a more lasting basis.Together with the territorial losses by the end of July, that would improve prospects for a negotiated settelemsnt on terms acceptable to the Reich. Stalin was upset because there was no second front and could’ve made peace to shift the burden of fighting the Germans to the allies.

Stalingrad was not part of Operation Blue planning, it only became an important objective later on. And why? Because they wanted to have it to hold the Volga.
Because Adolf erred badly by trying to take it for political reasons.

Otherwise, the ONLY difference between your objective and that of actual Blue is Baku. You even earlier posted to not go beyond the Don and just changed that too. And you still have no way of hitting Baku with bombs because if you launch Blue as you want, the Luftwaffe air fleet are going to be tied up supporting your ground forces conducting an advance far beyond what they are really capable of, and unable to spend weeks hitting a far away target.
But there’s no attack on stalingrad and no major advance into the Caucasus. The luftwaffe wouldn’t bomb those places like it did historically but strike at Baku or maybe astrakhan.


No. In this scenario the exact same thing happens in 1942, because you're sending most of German strength to the Caucasus with a bad plan and the same thing happens to them come winter.
Not most and the same thing doesn’t happen because the flanks are much stronger.


LOL, battleships. Shorter lines of communication. Versus millions of tons of plundered natural resources and millions of almost free labor. Versus the decision to tell Germany, the Nazis, and the German military, that you plan to give France back to angry Frenchmen to use as a base for future invasion of Germany without even putting up a basic fight. LOL, I'm sure that will go over well.
But the Germans wouldn’t lose France until 1944. Trying to defend the long French coastline was futile in view that of allied air and sea supremacy. Conserving strength for much stronger defense at the German border and a massive counterattack would’ve been much better, especially if strength were greatly bolstered by peace in the east since ‘42.


Communication discipline for the Ardenne Offensive was the reason the Allies knew so little, not because confusion over a code name. Hitler was paranoid about his generals and their loyalty and didn't tell most of them, even army commanders, until very shortly before the operation started about what it was about. They literally were only told, by courier not radio, to prepare for offensive operations by x time, and that was it. At the last moment they received movement orders (by courier, not radio) to get to their assembly areas, sometimes many hundreds of miles away, and then at the very last moment were given maps and objectives. But because Hitler was paranoid, it worked out because there was little radio traffic about it, so little SIGINT to be intercepted.
OK the Germans can do the same in this scenario too.

No, I'm simply ripping them to pieces, because they are disastrous.
Lol your opinion....
 

aggienation

Ad Honorem
Jul 2016
9,749
USA
It’s much different because Stalingrad would not be attacked hence the don and Volga flanks would retain their strength, and the Germans would be able to impede Soviet oil production on a more lasting basis.Together with the territorial losses by the end of July, that would improve prospects for a negotiated settelemsnt on terms acceptable to the Reich. Stalin was upset because there was no second front and could’ve made peace to shift the burden of fighting the Germans to the allies.
Stalingrad was not due to be taken by assault as part of the original Plan Blue, it only became an important objective later.

Meanwhile, your plan is near exactly the same .You want to drive deep into the Caucasus, past where the Germans in real life couldn't get to. You initially only wanted to hold the Don, then upon realizing you also needed to hold the Volga, decided you wanted that too, but only decided not to attack Stalingrad. Besides diverting most of your Luftwaffe medium bombers to a mission many hundreds of miles away from friendly forces (Baku), its the same plan.

Because Adolf erred badly by trying to take it for political reasons.
Not initially they weren't. Initially they wanted it because it was a major industrial site, home of numerous warmaking factories, including a major T-34 factory. They were going to have to nullify that city, but the original plan just called for destroying it all with air attacks and artillery.

But there’s no attack on stalingrad and no major advance into the Caucasus. The luftwaffe wouldn’t bomb those places like it did historically but strike at Baku or maybe astrakhan.
With your plan, there is a major advance into the Caucasus. I'll quote you: "I wasn’t suggesting the army try to advance all the way to Baku, just Maikop and Grozny while letting the Luftwaffe hit Baku."

Where do you think Maikop and Grozny are located?

To reach them means driving deep into the Caucasus, taking the Military Road, crossing a bunch of mountains, held tenaciously by the Red Army who have the benefit defending on easy terrain. The ONLY difference is Baku not being a Heer objective, but still being a Luftwaffe objective, which means Richtoven's Luftflotte 4 gets side tracked from supporting Army Group South to go bomb a faraway target, and provide fighter support for the bombers, which means the VVS is more or less unmolested around more northern Heer operations, which means they attack the crap out of Army Group South, who not only don't get the air support they need by attack aircraft, but don't get fighter support to stop Soviet air attacks.

Not most and the same thing doesn’t happen because the flanks are much stronger.
Your original plan didn't even account for going past the Don. Now you want to hold the Volga, minus dealing with a major industrial center actively pumping out tanks because hindsight, but you're still bragging as if you have strong flanks. No, you don't.

But the Germans wouldn’t lose France until 1944. Trying to defend the long French coastline was futile in view that of allied air and sea supremacy. Conserving strength for much stronger defense at the German border and a massive counterattack would’ve been much better, especially if strength were greatly bolstered by peace in the east since ‘42.
No, they'd lose it earlier, with no fight. Instead, they'd lose Germany's western border in 1944, because then the Allies wouldn't need to spend half a year crossing France, or have to risk a major invasion of Normandy, fight for ports, etc. Instead, they land easy, get their ports, set up big bases from which they stage supplies, conduct more training as the French Army is recreated, then in 1944 the combined might of UK, USA, and France all attack the western German border, which because of your actions is the only actual defensive barrier standing between Berlin and the Allies.

OK the Germans can do the same in this scenario too.
LOL. So you didn't even know the reason behind Ardenne Offensive SIGINT success, but now Germany not using Enigma is part of your brilliant plan for saving Germany.
 
Dec 2018
103
Australia
Stalingrad was not due to be taken by assault as part of the original Plan Blue, it only became an important objective later.

Meanwhile, your plan is near exactly the same .You want to drive deep into the Caucasus, past where the Germans in real life couldn't get to. You initially only wanted to hold the Don, then upon realizing you also needed to hold the Volga, decided you wanted that too, but only decided not to attack Stalingrad. Besides diverting most of your Luftwaffe medium bombers to a mission many hundreds of miles away from friendly forces (Baku), its the same plan.



Not initially they weren't. Initially they wanted it because it was a major industrial site, home of numerous warmaking factories, including a major T-34 factory. They were going to have to nullify that city, but the original plan just called for destroying it all with air attacks and artillery.



With your plan, there is a major advance into the Caucasus. I'll quote you: "I wasn’t suggesting the army try to advance all the way to Baku, just Maikop and Grozny while letting the Luftwaffe hit Baku."

Where do you think Maikop and Grozny are located?

To reach them means driving deep into the Caucasus, taking the Military Road, crossing a bunch of mountains, held tenaciously by the Red Army who have the benefit defending on easy terrain. The ONLY difference is Baku not being a Heer objective, but still being a Luftwaffe objective, which means Richtoven's Luftflotte 4 gets side tracked from supporting Army Group South to go bomb a faraway target, and provide fighter support for the bombers, which means the VVS is more or less unmolested around more northern Heer operations, which means they attack the crap out of Army Group South, who not only don't get the air support they need by attack aircraft, but don't get fighter support to stop Soviet air attacks.



Your original plan didn't even account for going past the Don. Now you want to hold the Volga, minus dealing with a major industrial center actively pumping out tanks because hindsight, but you're still bragging as if you have strong flanks. No, you don't.



No, they'd lose it earlier, with no fight. Instead, they'd lose Germany's western border in 1944, because then the Allies wouldn't need to spend half a year crossing France, or have to risk a major invasion of Normandy, fight for ports, etc. Instead, they land easy, get their ports, set up big bases from which they stage supplies, conduct more training as the French Army is recreated, then in 1944 the combined might of UK, USA, and France all attack the western German border, which because of your actions is the only actual defensive barrier standing between Berlin and the Allies.



LOL. So you didn't even know the reason behind Ardenne Offensive SIGINT success, but now Germany not using Enigma is part of your brilliant plan for saving Germany.
@aggienation Why didn't the Germans flank Stalingrad and deal with it later? That was what they had done earlier.
 

aggienation

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Jul 2016
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USA
@aggienation Why didn't the Germans flank Stalingrad and deal with it later? That was what they had done earlier.
It was Hitler's decision, part of a constant series of fragmentary orders, changes to a plan that wasn't working.

The original plan called for the attack on Voronezh by 2nd Army, 6th Army, 4th Panzer Army, then 4th Panzer would head south toward Millerovo, catching the entire Soviet force structure south of Voronezh in a giant kessel. They were picturing many hundreds of thousands killed or captured, but it didn't go to plan as 4th Panzer took too long and deployed south in piecemeal fashion, so Timoshenko's armies managed to retreat to the Don.

This infuriated Hitler, because he was already tired of timid generals, and knew the strategic importance of the campaign, which would make or break Germany.

With one Luftstoss, a missed blow in the air, it was repeated by another while crossing the Don. They took a few tens of thousands of prisoners, but not nearly as many as they'd hoped, like in 1941, because by 1942 the Red Army wasn't sticking around to be encircled.

Timoshenko started pulling his armies back from the Don to Stalingrad. As part of the original Blue II plan, 6th Army was supposed to past the Don and past the Volga, toward the Stalingrad area, but the city and its very strong industry was supposed to be nullified by way of Richthofen's 4th Air Fleet through operational bombing. But with two empty kessels, Timeshenko were still largely entact and some were heading to Stalingrad.

At that point Hitler made a bunch of insane and disastrous decisions. He broke Army Group South into two weaker, smaller army groups, A and B, and instead of taking the Stalingrad area first and then heading to the Caucasus, he wanted to do both at the same time. I kind of understand his desire, because the way things were going, both weren't going to be done in a single campaign season if the did them consecutively. But they definitely didn't have the logistics to focus on everyone at once.

For instance, 6th Army was already having a hard time moving and werent getting enough supplies. Because of the three primary German armies, it was ranked three of three in supply priority. But when it became apparent that they wouldnt even reach Stalingrad without prioritizing supplies, Hitler changed it, making 2nd Panzer Army, previously first priority relegated to second, while 4th Panzer, which Hitler so graciously tasked to assist 6th Army was stuck at third priority, so they constantly ran out of fuel after driving into the Caucasus and then having to move north again to help 6th Army.

Meanwhile, to 6th Army's flanks were a number of allied Axis field armies. Primarily two Romanian, Hungarian, and Italian. All of whom hated one another, were weakly armed, and not very effective fighting forces. With them they couldn't even get past the Don fully, only 6th and 4th Panzer armies could, so encircling Stalingrad was out, unless they were willing to commit more troops (that they didn't have in theater), more supplies (that they were already struggling to move), and more time (at least a few months).

As it was, 6th Army, undermanned (they weren't even at full manpower when Plan Blue was launched), didn't even get into the city until early September.

Had they been better supplied in early August, they probably could have taken the city in a coup de main without much of a fight, but that month saw the USSR fortify the city, send more troops, and after the 4th Air Fleet rubbled it, mix of heavy HE and incendiary bombs against civilian and industrial targets, it made defending that much easier.