What is the future of humanity?

macon

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
3,877
Slovenia, EU
Fertility rates are easing back, but the African baby boom continues, which is projected to increase its population by another 2 billion in the next generation.
I don't understand why is ti so self-evident that west will be feeding those another 2 billions of Africans.

My idea is that west will make a sharp stop to all African breeding because it won't give them aid anymore.
 
Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
I don't understand why is ti so self-evident that west will be feeding those another 2 billions of Africans.

My idea is that west will make a sharp stop to all African breeding because it won't give them aid anymore.
Unlikely. More likely that massive famines will occur. In really poor countries, it is crucial to have large families. There is no welfare. People naturally have large families so that at least some of their children will survive to be able to care for their parents in old age., which occurs relatively young.

It is my perception, that poor countries/' regions such as India, South America and much of Africa have a much higher birth rate than affluent countries/ regions. I can't prove this contention as I have not looked up stats. Will do so if necessary. I'm aware the truth of the bleeding' obvious can be counter intuitive.
 
Aug 2014
4,355
Australia
Unlikely. More likely that massive famines will occur. In really poor countries, it is crucial to have large families. There is no welfare. People naturally have large families so that at least some of their children will survive to be able to care for their parents in old age., which occurs relatively young.

It is my perception, that poor countries/' regions such as India, South America and much of Africa have a much higher birth rate than affluent countries/ regions. I can't prove this contention as I have not looked up stats. Will do so if necessary. I'm aware the truth of the bleeding' obvious can be counter intuitive.
We've already covered this; fertility rates are related to female education levels, not poverty. The correlation can be traced back for decades - even in the poorest countries.
 
Dec 2011
2,169
I don't understand why is ti so self-evident that west will be feeding those another 2 billions of Africans.

My idea is that west will make a sharp stop to all African breeding because it won't give them aid anymore.
The West won't be feeding 2 billion Africans. Most of the food that Africans eat is grown by Africans.

Stopping aid won't stop African "breeding" at all. Aid in the form of contraception and education could slow down African population growth.
 
Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
We've already covered this; fertility rates are related to female education levels, not poverty. The correlation can be traced back for decades - even in the poorest countries.
I'm not doubting your claim, it's as I said, counter intuitive for me.I need to do some reading.
 
Aug 2014
4,355
Australia
The West won't be feeding 2 billion Africans. Most of the food that Africans eat is grown by Africans.
Yep. Africa really only needs food assistance when there are widespread crop failures caused by weather or conflict - same as everywhere else. Most foreign aid is spent on infrastructure, social development, and education programmes. If our Slovenian friend wants to reduce population growth and lower migration rates, this kind of aid should be increased, not decreased. We have direct evidence telling us what happens in regions where aid is reduced and education programmes are defunded - the fertility rate stops declining and immigration increases.
 
Last edited:
Likes: VHS
May 2017
141
Monterrey
The image that Africa is fed by Western money is pretty much the result of a few decades of Red Cross etc. famine ads on tv. Power of advertising. Of course, if you take a deeper look you should find out that Africa is a pretty sizeable continent with plenty of natural resources. The only reason they wouldn't be able to handle growth is corruption...which, I think, is less of a problem today than it was previously.
 

VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,351
Florania
Should we upgrade African education system? Should instructions utilize international languages rather than local languages?
 

caldrail

Ad Honorem
Feb 2012
5,223
This "one study" has no less than 25 contributors. You write that there are other studies but don't given any information about this different picture that you say they paint.
Calling Homo Sapiens "a hopeless creature" is to me just a slogan, with not much meaning and no evidence.
No evidence? You might want to read a newspaper or watch the evening news occaisionally. It betrays our flaws on a daily basis.

I prefer to listen to what the "experts", who explain their methodologies, instead of you, because you don't show data or methodology.
Well that 's perfectly acceptable at face value but then I don't pretend to be an 'expert' nor am I writing a report on the subject. Might be as well to remember this is a casual internet discussion. Whilst you disagree with my sentiments regarding the issue at hand, it is worth realising that reports are never completely objective and indeed often form the core of movements desiring or supporting geo-political ends. They certainly got you on side :D

I've seen over the years many reports issued by groups of academics and experts - Global Warming is one rich vein of such predictive writing - and the worrying thing is that so much of it is written to support an idea rather than reaching a conclusion by analysis irrespective of how the text is composed. It's sometimes like the Bible, if you'll excuse the analogy. Some refer to it as Gods work - which it clearly isn't - or that it represents an account of fact - which iot clearly isn't given its somewhat dubious origins and subsequent censorship and rewrites - but forms the core and even substantiation of Christian belief. Now of course the report you favour isn't in the same category but please note the parallel. As much as twenty five experts might give the report credibility, which twenty five experts are we talking about? There are more than twenty five demographers out there and the label 'expert' is rather loosely applied these.


What does that mean? Take one species, the Nile Crocodile. It has been in existence for millions of years. Maybe its population was bigger at some point in the past. But it still exists. The human population is set to continue growing, level off, then have a gradual decline. There is no immediate prospect of a sudden sharp decline, if that is what you mean.
Existence is proof of stability? No. It isn't. The Crocodile - of whatever species - is a great survivor and a capable predator. One cannot argue with their presence on Earth after the changes they have weathered. But really, you have detailed information on the variance of their population levels? I doubt it. Since nature depends on opportunism and diversity for success, the crocodile remains a predator that has dominant positions in local ecologies which they seem to depend on just like other species. In other words, they survive because they're good at what they do, besides a an advantage here and there. But the reality of local ecologies is still represented in simple form by that 'Rabbit & Fox' diagram.

Humanity of course is not immune. Historically there have been factors limiting our growth as a species, notably violence, disease, and natural disaster. However, these external influences are not identical in scope. They vary in effect depending on where they strike and by what degree. People often quote modern reports of freak weather (in terms of supporting their ideas of global warming and its affect upon the world) but there are plenty of feak weather events in history that go unnoticed. By example I remember a recent television documentary following one researcher who discovered that the Caribbean had been struck by an incredibly devastating storm in the 1700's - it even smashed a stone fortress - and wiped settlements off the map completely. This is a reality of human population increase - as we become more numerous, the events that inflict change upon us are all the more likely to do so. The recent arrival of a relatively small meteorite in Russia caused a lot of property damage but luckily it fell in undeveloped territory. Imagine that hitting Moscow, or another city around the world. Thus, as population grows, the risks of mortal reduction increase, but these events mitigate against stable apogees of population which to me is a ridiculous idea to begin with.

Human population is not a mathematical equation. It cannot achieve a pure result or finite figure because the chaotic elements of breeding, environment, and other risk factos do not allow it. Predicting an apogee of one figure or another is all very well but not provable. We can only wait and see if the prediction is right, but of course we cannot predict in absolute terms how external factors will influence the actual result.

Personally - and I suspect you will contest the point - I would avoid using any report as evidence of future result. Like I said, the fastest thing to date is our prediction of the future. What remains however is our relationship with the world and the vagaries of it. No species dominates in huge numbers for ever. There is paleontological evidence that species achieving enormous dominance sooner or later fall by the wayside.

the report you favour is all very well but it does not influence my thinking on the issue. Mankind has a built-in optimism that has allowed us to spread and confront the risks we face - it's one reason for the success of our species - but it also remains a fact that Humanity has been incredibly lucky in that a stable climate has existed in our species' youth. Now things are starting to wobble again and we're worried. Our medicinal expertise is becoming fragile and threatens to return to Victorian standards. Our numbers increase population contact and the infrastructure we create has underpinned these risks all the more. Sorry if that sounds a bit apocalyptic but then the idea of stability is all too common in casual academic thinking and does not represent the existing reality that we tend to ignore if we don't experience it personally.
 

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