What would a KMT-led China look like?


Ad Honoris
May 2014
What if the KMT (Kuomintang) had won the Chinese Civil War instead of the Communists? What would a KMT-led China look like today and what would the last seven decades have looked like for China?

Personally, I think that China would have avoided the catastrophes of Communist rule and Maoism--thus resulting in tens of millions of lives being saved. I also think that China would have seen its total fertility rate fall faster and without a One-Child policy due to the fact that a KMT-led China would have industrialized and modernized it earlier--thus initiating an earlier demographic transition in China. Nowadays China would probably be as wealthy per capita as Taiwan is right now in real life. Also, there would have been no Korean War in this scenario since Kim Il-Sung wouldn't have been able to count on Chinese support. Thus, he would have never dared start the Korean War in this scenario.

I expect China's foreign policy during the Cold War to have been non-aligned, but closer to that of the US than that of the USSR due to the shared capitalist economic system. I would also expect China to transition to democracy--perhaps in the 1980s when the Cold War is winding down. (This is what both South Korea and Taiwan experienced in real life.) After the end of the Cold War, I expect China to be the largest economy in the world and a huge global player. I suspect that China-US relations would be friendly but perhaps not completely free of tensions.

What are your thoughts on this?
May 2017
Kuomintang winning does nothing to solve the problems that led to Kuomintang losing. Wasn't much of the country under control of different war lords?


Ad Honorem
Oct 2013
Why? Chinese are presumably much smarter than Indians are, on average.
Most likely China would have been cursed to run as a multiparty democracy, and that might've retarded Chinese growth and rejuvenation more than Mao's catastrophes

Yeah, that seems realistic. Basically, Taiwan times fifty.
The KMT can't even maintain a pure Chinese identity from attempts at erosion by Taiwanese DPP and hold onto power in the tiny island of Taiwan, how could it hope to create and force a uniting national identity and keep power and order on the mainland?