What would Japanese have done if they weren't being sanctioned?

May 2019
458
Northern and Western hemispheres
If president Roosevelt didn't place metal and fuel sanctions on the Japanese would they have eventually attacked the Americans or tried to subjugate more Asian countries in addition to what they already had (Taiwan, Manchukuo, China) ?
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
5,097
Dispargum
The Japanese would have continued attacking in China. They may have tried to occupy to the Dutch East Indies the same as French Indochina. In both cases, with the European home countries occupied by the Germans, there was no one to defend the colonies.
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
36,316
T'Republic of Yorkshire
I'm not convinced they would go into Dutch Indochina if they weren't being embargoed. They went there to secure oil and rubber supplies that they could previously import from the US.
 
May 2019
458
Northern and Western hemispheres
I agree that they would have continued their war in China. Its hard to say whether or not they would have gone for Indonesia, Malaya, Singapore, or the Philippines. Their plans to attack Pearl Harbor were developed before the sanctions in the summer of '41(possibly late '40 or early '41). They had heard that the Royal Navy knocked out the Italian Navy at Taranto and decided they had inspiration for their plans.
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
5,097
Dispargum
They would have tried to take as much as they could without war. You're right about early planning for Pearl Harbor. I don't know how much of it was routine contingency planning and how much was definite war preparation. The US anticipated carrier raids on Pearl Harbor as early as the 1920s. Surely the Japanese would consider such an attack without needing a definite plan.
 

VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,889
Florania
I'm not convinced they would go into Dutch Indochina if they weren't being embargoed. They went there to secure oil and rubber supplies that they could previously import from the US.
Attack and conquest of Dutch Indochina stretched the supply line and might have accelerated the demise of the Empire of Japan.
 
Sep 2012
1,246
Tarkington, Texas
Japan went into the DEI for the oil. I have always thought they went into Malaya for the Tin and the Rubber.

Pruitt
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,160
If they could still secure strategic supplies from imports, they would have continued their war in China, but avoided fighting the British, Dutch and US.

Should they have managed to successfully wind up their war in China eventually, probability is that for a next major conflict they would have started looking at the Soviets.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
24,557
SoCal
If president Roosevelt didn't place metal and fuel sanctions on the Japanese would they have eventually attacked the Americans or tried to subjugate more Asian countries in addition to what they already had (Taiwan, Manchukuo, China) ?
If the Japanese weren't sanctioned, then I suspect that they would try hard to avoid conflict with the US--which would mean attempting to determine what exactly the US's red lines are in regards to this. The problem, of course, is that even if the US doesn't punish Japan for occupying French Indochina, Japan simply doesn't have much room to further expand. Maybe Thailand was doable, but what else was there? The Soviet Union? After all, I don't think that the US would be cool with a Japanese conquest of British and Dutch colonies and it certainly wouldn't be cool with a Japanese conquest of the Philippines.
 
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