What would WWI look like if France, Austria-Hungary, and Russia allied with each other?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,833
SoCal
#1
Here's a fun scenario: Let's say that German Kaiser Wilhelm II hits his head really head on something and experiences a significant personality change. In turn, this makes him an advocate of national self-determination in both Austria-Hungary and Russia--thus causing these two powers to come closer together and ally with each other as well as with France. In turn, this Franco-Austro-Russo-Hungarian alliance causes Britain to ally with Germany for balance-of-power reasons. Italy also allies with Germany in order to acquire territory at A-H's expense--as do both Serbia and Romania. Meanwhile, Bulgaria allies with Russia since it wants to acquire Macedonia from Serbia. Thus, we ultimately have these alliance systems at the start of an alt-WWI:

The Ring Powers: France, Austria-Hungary, Russia, and Bulgaria.
The Entente Powers: Britain, Germany, Italy, Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, and possibly Greece as well.

What would an alt-WWI look like in this scenario and how exactly would it progress?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,833
SoCal
#5
There would have been no war. AH would have had its way with Serbia. Russia would sit out as would Germany. End of story.
Germany's encirclement mentality would've still been there in 1914 in this scenario, though. If anything, it might have been even more severe than it was in real life due to Austria-Hungary being a German enemy in this scenario.
 
Jan 2010
4,133
Atlanta, Georgia USA
#8
Germany's encirclement mentality would've still been there in 1914 in this scenario, though. If anything, it might have been even more severe than it was in real life due to Austria-Hungary being a German enemy in this scenario.
Well yes, but Germany would have had no reason to take part in war—unless it had a treaty with Serbia. Germany would have justly feared encirclement but that would have been a reason for staying out of war—at least at that time
 
Sep 2012
3,553
Bulgaria
#9
Where are the Ottomans in this speculative scenario? What is their stance? Did they win the balkan war? Allies with Germany and GB against Russia I presume? They controlled the whole middle east, how you gonna keep 'em neutral?

What happened to Dreikaiserbund in your scenario. It was disbanded in 1878 after Russo-Turkish war by AH due to the Russian support for Serbia. In this scenario AH and Russia are still allies ergo Russia is against Serbia.

Germany and Britain versus Austria-Hungary, Russia and France... Sounds a bit like the Seven Years' War.
Kingdom of Prussia is not Germany.
 
Last edited:
Dec 2011
4,293
Iowa USA
#10
What happened to Dreikaiserbund in your scenario. It was disbanded in 1878 after Russo-Turkish war by AH due to the Russian support for Serbia.
My thought on this question was that the Russians' approval of Ferdinand of Coburg for Prince of Bulgaria is evidence that the (secret) 3xCaesar League was smoothly operating early in Alexander III's reign.

But to the larger question... if Futurist will give me some playing field here to maneuver, why not have the change in Wilhelm's personality happen between his first visit to the Holy Land/O.E. and the original Morocco crisis?

Well before the reckless Sazanov was installed as Russian F.M., that seems to be necessary...
 
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