Where would a Fascist China seek to expand?

Mar 2012
4,319
#12
Had the Qing dynasty not collapse in 1911, this might very likely be a scenario in the 1930s. The industrial gap between the Qing and Japan was not significant, at least no where near as large as the ROC was with Japan. In 1911, Qing modern steel production of the Hanyang factory was over 120,000 tons (of which over 20,000 was for railways) whereas Japanese steel production was around 270,000 tons, or just above twice of that. After the Xinhai Revolution, Chinese steel production and overall industrialization plummeted. By 1914, the ROC only produced around 4.3 tons of industrial steel, whereas Japan was producing 350,000 tons and still increasing rapidly. By 1931, Japan was producing 2,200,000 tons of steel whereas the ROC, due to civil war was only producing 1.5-2 tons.
The Hanyang factory could also produce 2000-3000 of native made type 88 Mousers (and native made Maxim guns) annually by the 1900s, whereas the ROC could only import and use old Qing models. The late Qing also produced 3,900 heavy cannons whereas the ROC only produced 98 during the war against Japan. Most importantly, the Qing could produce over 80 of its own iron clad battle ships. The ROC cannot make a single one outside of importing foreign made parts and putting them together. At no point in history did the ROC produce more steel or weapons than the Qing dynasty in the 1900s.

By 1911, the modern equipped New Army of the Qing was every bit as updated as the most modern armies of the time. With each battalion having one Gatling gun, 27 heavy guns and 18 field cannons, which had more destructive power compared to the prevalent 12 field cannon per battalion organizations that were circulating in most modern armies of the time, including the Japanese and Russian army. The total number of the New Army reached over 200,000 by the end of the Qing compared to around 300,000 standing soldiers in Japan.
By 1937, the ROC had 2 million soldiers, slightly larger than the Japanese establishment, but they lacked heavy artillery and armored division, and often lost to Japanese armies even with a 4-5:1 superiority in numbers.

Had the Qing been able to assert more centralized control, their industrial growth can certainly speed up and perhaps surpass those of Japan or even the USSR by the 1930s (through its sheer size and population), and being hit by the economic depression of the late 1920s, might also resort to expansion. The most probable scenario would be an alliance with Germany and Italy against the USSR and Japan (possibly Britain and France). German relations with the ROC was already close before the 2nd World War. Chiang Kaishek's son was trained in Germany and Germany provided many equipment to the ROC in the initial war of resistance against Japan. The only reason Germany allied with Japan is so that there is a strong check against Soviet and western power in the east. Had China rose in the 1930s, it, rather than Japan would have immediately bordered the USSR and served that role. A strong China would also prompt Japan and the USSR to find a mutual ground for alliance against in the east. A hungry Qing power would probably try to tap into Outer Manchuria first had Hitler invaded the USSR, using the excuse that it was taken by force in the past by the Tsars to begin with. The next step would be Korea and Taiwan. Had Germany taken France, it is also possible that the Qing take Vietnam (possibly also HK against the British). The United States might not even enter the war, at least not in the east, as Qing interests would probably be more aligned with those of America's in checking Japanese naval power (it is more likely and easier that the Qing develop its ground forces more than its navy vis a vis Japan)
 
Last edited:
Jan 2019
48
Croatia
#13
Probably Mongolia and Indo-China.Probably not Japan,if fascist China attacked Japan after ww2 that would probably trigger USA and UK to do something.