Which countries are likely to break up in the event of a revolution or war loss?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,127
SoCal
#1
Which countries are likely to break up in the event of a revolution or war loss?

Basically, what I am thinking of here is having countries endure the same fate that Austria-Hungary endured in 1918 and that the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia endured after the collapse of Communism in the early 1990s.

Also, I hope that I didn't previously ask this question on here.

Anyway, does anyone have any candidate countries for this? Or do you think that most countries are too stable to share a fate similar to that of the Soviet Union even in the event of a revolution or war loss?

Any thoughts on this?
 
May 2017
1,201
Syria
#3
iraq and syria, look at kurd.
Remember September 2017? The Iraqi Kurds held a failed independence referendum which resulted in the Iraqi army marching to and capturing Kirkuk and various other towns and villages in Iraqi Kurdistan.

As for in Syria, Syria's Kurds don't want independence but rather a federation with the Syrian government, according to their official statements anyway. It's too early to speculate what they want.

But in short, an independent Kurdistan is not gonna happen because nobody in the region wants it to. Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria all strongly oppose the idea, and the Kurds failed to gain any foreign support for independence even from the US, their strongest ally.
 
Apr 2018
480
Upland, Sweden
#4
Russia. All of the caucasus Republics could well attempt to break free, as well as some parts of Siberia, if massive political instability were to hit the country again.


Some people might say China because of its "many different ethnicities". I am not sure about that. The Beijong government has been quite successful in implementing mandarin, especially with younger generations and 85% of the population is Han Chinese. Xinjiang and Tibet might try to break away though, of course.



The most serious contender is however the United States. As the latest election has demonstrated, the feeling of "American-ness" between the coasts and "fly-over country" are not that great, and the ethnic disparaties are already very great (and increasing). The US is a very unusual state historically speaking, and if the american dream looks unconvincing enough to a large enough number of people and pride in the US constitution keeps diminishing (as it seems to do), and its interpretation grows increasingly contested... there is just no way the US is going to stay together, at least not in its current form.
 
Jul 2016
242
Just outside the Rust Belt
#5
Russia. All of the caucasus Republics could well attempt to break free, as well as some parts of Siberia, if massive political instability were to hit the country again.


Some people might say China because of its "many different ethnicities". I am not sure about that. The Beijong government has been quite successful in implementing mandarin, especially with younger generations and 85% of the population is Han Chinese. Xinjiang and Tibet might try to break away though, of course.



The most serious contender is however the United States. As the latest election has demonstrated, the feeling of "American-ness" between the coasts and "fly-over country" are not that great, and the ethnic disparaties are already very great (and increasing). The US is a very unusual state historically speaking, and if the american dream looks unconvincing enough to a large enough number of people and pride in the US constitution keeps diminishing (as it seems to do), and its interpretation grows increasingly contested... there is just no way the US is going to stay together, at least not in its current form.
Hm. Growth is good.
Both independence movements are considered jokes by even the states they are from.
Other then we might live in what might be considered the second civil rights era I do not see any chaos in America. America survived Watergate, the Civil Rights Era, Vietnam, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the CIVIL WAR. No, America is here to stay.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,127
SoCal
#7
Russia. All of the caucasus Republics could well attempt to break free, as well as some parts of Siberia, if massive political instability were to hit the country again.
Some secessions in the Caucasus are very possible. However, I wouldn't bet on Siberia seceding considering that it is majority Russian.

Some people might say China because of its "many different ethnicities". I am not sure about that. The Beijong government has been quite successful in implementing mandarin, especially with younger generations and 85% of the population is Han Chinese. Xinjiang and Tibet might try to break away though, of course.
Yeah, I have read that various Chinese dialects are dying out due to them not being used by young people as much. That said, though, I don't think that the speakers of various Chinese dialects have ever actually wanted to secede from China.

A secession of western Xinjiang and/or Tibet is more realistic if there is a revolution in China, but certainly nowhere near being guaranteed. Indeed, I seem to recall a poll which stated that only 29% of Tibetans actually want independence from China.

The most serious contender is however the United States. As the latest election has demonstrated, the feeling of "American-ness" between the coasts and "fly-over country" are not that great, and the ethnic disparaties are already very great (and increasing). The US is a very unusual state historically speaking, and if the american dream looks unconvincing enough to a large enough number of people and pride in the US constitution keeps diminishing (as it seems to do), and its interpretation grows increasingly contested... there is just no way the US is going to stay together, at least not in its current form.
I think that you are being way too pessimistic about the U.S. here.

Plus, there really don't appear to be any good ways to divide the United States of America. After all, liberals and Democrats are scattered in various cities throughout the United States.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,127
SoCal
#8
Hm. Growth is good.
Both independence movements are considered jokes by even the states they are from.
Other then we might live in what might be considered the second civil rights era I do not see any chaos in America. America survived Watergate, the Civil Rights Era, Vietnam, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the CIVIL WAR. No, America is here to stay.
Completely agreed with this. Indeed, the U.S. has survived a lot and is certainly here to stay. :)

Also, again, how exactly does one neatly divide the U.S.? :

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...ntial_county_map_shaded_by_vote_share.svg.png



As the 2016 U.S. presidential election map above shows (blue = Democratic; red = Republican), there really does appear to be no good way of dividing the U.S.
 
Dec 2011
4,363
Iowa USA
#10
I think that you are being way too pessimistic about the U.S. here.

Plus, there really don't appear to be any good ways to divide the United States of America. After all, liberals are scattered in various cities throughout the United States.
The U.S. is (by any standard since Late Medieval period) an old republic, the poster was expressing that Constitution is not accorded the same respect by educated people that it was in the recent past. If that is a trend that continues in forty years many things are possible in the U.S.