Which countries' independence nowadays would you say are the biggest historical flukes?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
Which countries' independence nowadays would you say are the biggest historical flukes? As in, for which countries would it have been extremely easy for them to not be independent right now had history unfolded in a different but still extremely realistic manner?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
FTR, I'm asking this question because the 20th century (and early 21st century, to a much, much lesser extent) achieved great strides in regards to national self-determination--with dozens of new countries becoming independent during the 20th century as various empires collapsed and broke up. In turn, this made me ask which of these newly acquired independences do you think were the least likely to occur without the benefit of hindsight?
 
Oct 2018
23
Australia
Monaco, San Marino, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Portugal, Former Yuguslav Republic of Macedonia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
Monaco, San Marino, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg,
Why those? They have a long history of independence, no?

Portugal,
Why Portugal? After all, it also has a long history of independence.

Former Yuguslav Republic of Macedonia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
That makes sense given that without Communist rule in Yugoslavia none of these countries would have probably ever actually been able to secede from Yugoslavia. Also, you might as well include Croatia and Kosovo here as well.