Which European monarchies would have survived up to the present-day without the Fall of France in 1940?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,708
SoCal
Okay. You almost certainly can't get the Republic back in Germany so I'm imagining a "good old" abandonment of civil government in favor of rule by the Army. In the scenario you provide Stalin is still the main driver of events from '42. Thanks for adding the broad description of the settlement.
No problem! :)

As for a return to republicanism/democracy in Germany, I do wonder if Germany's new military leadership is going to want to try blaming the civilian politicians for Germany's WWII defeat just like they previously blamed the civilian politicians for Germany's WWI defeat. If so, there could be significant support in favor of restoring republican democracy to Germany.

One would think that the new German leadership might have its fair share of monarchists, but at the same time, I'm highly skeptical that Britain and France are actually going to be willing to agree to a Hohenzollern restoration in Germany after fighting one Kaiser in WWI and a wannabe Kaiser in WWII.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,708
SoCal
In the order of likelihood of retaining their monarchs per @Futurist's expanded scenario, I'll throw this against the wall for discussion (the six Southern monarchies):

1. Romania
2A. Bulgaria
2B. Greece
4. Yugoslavia
5. Hungary
6A. Albania
6B. Italy

(some real possibility of Albania losing its independence as Greece could be more strategically vital to the Western powers as well.)

EDIT: sincere apologies to Hungarian readers for any offense by lumping your nation with the truly Southern nations.
K, what percentage odds are you going to put in regards to each of these countries retaining their monarchies up to the present-day?
 

Kotromanic

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
4,957
Iowa USA
K, what percentage odds are you going to put in regards to each of these countries retaining their monarchies up to the present-day?
I'll say 86% for Romania, six chances in seven.

For Yugoslavia there are few open questions since the King was very young (not sure whether regency scheduled to end at age 20 or earlier) and as an exile he had a difficult life. Maybe someone with a deep knowledge of Yugo can pose another speculative thread on its own. My own reckoning on the percentage for the Monarchy to successfully pass on after Peter II is about 60 percent.

The choices at number 6, less than one in three.

(oh, to present day?) Those percentages say take us to the watershed year of '88-'89 in the actual Communist world, since let's not get into an alternate post 1992? :think:
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,708
SoCal
I'll say 86% for Romania, six chances in seven.

For Yugoslavia there are few open questions since the King was very young (not sure whether regency scheduled to end at age 20 or earlier) and as an exile he had a difficult life. Maybe someone with a deep knowledge of Yugo can pose another speculative thread on its own. My own reckoning on the percentage for the Monarchy to successfully pass on after Peter II is about 60 percent.

The choices at number 6, less than one in three.

(oh, to present day?) Those percentages say take us to the watershed year of '88-'89 in the actual Communist world, since let's not get into an alternate post 1992? :think:
You don't think that Umberto II is going to be able to redeem the Italian monarchy's image after Mussolini's death in this scenario?