Which independence movements that failed in real life had the best odds of success?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Which independence movements that failed in real life had the best odds of success--as in, their odds of success would have been the highest had things realistically gone a little bit differently?

I am asking this question because in real life, there was a huge success of independence movements throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. First Qing China collapsed (thus resulting in Mongolia's independence), then Austria-Hungary, the Russian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire broke up after the end of WWI (creating a whole bunch of new countries in the process), then various colonies got their independence (occasionally involving partition, such as with Palestine in 1947, India in 1947, and Pakistan in 1971), then Czechoslovakia broke up into two separate countries, the USSR broke up into fifteen separate countries (or make that twenty separate countries if one also includes unrecognized countries), and Yugoslavia broke up into seven separate countries. (Plus, this is not to mention the success of various independence movements in the Americas in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries.) So, yeah, in real life, there were extremely huge successes for national self-determination over the last couple of centuries.

In turn, what I am curious is this--which additional independence movements could have realistically achieved success had things gone a bit differently? I noticed that a huge pattern in regards to the formation of new countries involves defeat in a war, a revolution, the collapse of empires, and decades of Communist rule followed by an end to Communist rule and a collapse and break-up in the event of a multinational state. So, I was wondering which additional independence movements could have succeeded had their country experienced a defeat in a war, a revolution, a collapse of their empire, and/or decades of Communist rule followed by a collapse and break-up once Communist rule ends.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,961
Republika Srpska
Biafra. It had international support, most notably from France, but also from West Germany, Israel and China.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Biafra. It had international support, most notably from France, but also from West Germany, Israel and China.
Makes sense. Biafra could become quite wealthy due to its large oil reserves in the event of independence. It would also help that an independent Biafra won't have to share the profits from its oil reserves with the rest of Nigeria.

Any other examples?

If Germany still loses WWI, it might be willing to accept this, but France certainly wouldn't.
 
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