Which of these four European monarchies was most likely to eventually get overthrown in the absence of World War I?

Which of these four European monarchies was most likely to eventually get overthrown in the absence

  • The Hohenzollerns in Germany

  • The Hapsburgs in Austria

  • The Savoyards in Italy

  • The Romanovs in Russia


Results are only viewable after voting.

Shtajerc

Ad Honorem
Jul 2014
6,526
Lower Styria, Slovenia
#21
I meant giving every adult male in Hungary the right to vote. Women's suffrage wasn't a big issue yet and thus women would probably be excluded from the suffrage.

Here's where I got this idea from, BTW:

Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!

https://ww1.habsburger.net/en/chapters/franz-ferdinand-and-his-political-programme

"One reform measure envisioned the introduction of universal franchise in Hungary in order to break the supremacy of the Magyar elite. It was thought in Franz Ferdinand’s circle that these disputes about nationality would lame the Hungarian Parliament exactly as had happened in the Austrian Imperial Council. The restructuring of the constitution was tantamount to a coup d’état and designed to bring about a massive weakening of Hungarian autonomy within the totality of the State. In a state of emergency any resistance or even a potential civil war would be crushed using violence through military action. The objective was a reinforcement of the central power, and the Dual Monarchy would be replaced by a unified state with distinct emphasis on the German element – comparable with the Austrian Empire before the revolution of 1848. This programme, itself hazarding the consequences of an authoritarian coup d’état, eloquently expresses the idiosyncratic mixture of reactionary conservatism and reform zeal typical of Franz Ferdinand."
This I would have too look deeper into, but I think you might be on to something. One man one vote certainly weekens Hungarian hegemony in that half of the empire, but if the various minorities don't work together, their votes remain fractured. Rallying Slovaks, Romanians, Serbs, Slovenes and Croats to the same cause could prove to be quite difficult, I think.

So, which ethnicities were actually loyal to the crown?
Germans and most of the Slovenes until 1917/18 for sure. Italians, Hungarians, Serbs and Czechs rather not. I can't speak about Poles and Rhutenians/Ukrainians with conficence because I don't know enough about them, I merely know their quarrels between each other started to grow in the time right before ww1 in Galicia. For Slovaks and Romanians I guess it depends on how much you can influence them via their animossity against Hungarians and other Slavs (in case of the Romanians) and what you promise them. Croats were pushing for Trialism, thus I'd put them on the less loyal side as well. Bosniaks proved as good and relyable soldiers in ww1 but afaik they didn't have much of a say in Austrian-controlled Bosnia and don't forget about their relations with the Croats and Serbs although I think other South Slavic members of our forum might say more about this than I.

This reinforces what I wrote above here, no?
I guess so?

I certainly wasn't talking about killing them, though! After all, a monarch can be overthrown without being killed. For instance, Kaiser Bill and Kaiser Karl were overthrown but not killed. The same could have happened to Nicholas had there been no Bolshevik Revolution in Russia. He would have still been out of power, but at least he would have kept his life.
Agreed, but without ww1 there is might be less of a push for the Romanovs to be deposed. Unless Rasputin's growing influence keeps growing and remains unchallenged to a point where it becomes a reason to overthrow the Tsar. How likely do you think this is? He was much trusted by the imperial family, especially the Empress, but he gained more influence through the Empress in the Tsar's relative absence or apathy in face of the war. I'd like to hear your opinion aboit this.

Agreed that Tsarist Russia could have potentially avoided revolution in a scenario without the World Wars if it would have had sufficiently competent leadership. The question is, though, whether it would have actually had such a leadership in this scenario.
I forget who it was - the Tsar's uncle, merhinks? You know, the very tall gentleman with a mustache who was a military figure in the war as well. Perhaps he'd play some role in this scenario as well?

I think that Kaiser Bill would be very afraid of Germany's only real ally (Italy and Romania were unreliable allies) in continental Europe descended into revolution since this would leave Germany completely isolated and ripe for attack by its enemies. Granted, his calculation might have been a little bit different had Britain changes sides and allied with Germany by that point in time, though even then Kaiser Bill would have very likely preferred to have both Britain and Austria-Hungary as Germany's allies rather than to have only Britain as a German ally.
Britain's monarch was closer kin than the A-H one though and if you want to play big, Britains support is more important internationally, whereas A-H might prove a growing dead end. In the case of A-H crumbling, perhaps German Austria could have been incorporated in the empire as a kingdom, like Bavaria, Saxony or Württemberg (I doubt Habsburg pride would allow this though) and then they'd influence the newly formed states economically or whatever. Hard to say. Don't forget the Ottoman Epire though. They were an ally then as well. Not that they matter much, if A-H falls beforehand, but if Germany is on good terms with Britain, they could get some colonies in that region, if the Ottoman Empire goes down as well.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
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Shtajerc

Ad Honorem
Jul 2014
6,526
Lower Styria, Slovenia
#22
I was talking about Germany creating a Czech puppet state as opposed to directly annexing Czechia, though. The Sudetenland, though, is the one part of Czechia that Germany actually had a realistic chance of annexing.

Of course, I was talking about the event that A-H were to actually experience a successful revolution. Also, for what it's worth, there were only something like six million Czechs in comparison to sixty million Germans. Thus, Germany could easily rule over them and crush any Czech resistance. What are the Czechs going to do? Resort to terrorism like the IRA did?
Perhaps, perhaps not. The Czechs would have certainly preffered Russia, but Idk how much Britain and France approve of an expansion of Russia's influence westwards. Might still be the lesser evil in the eyes of the French ...

Unless Germany controls German Austria as well, an anexation of the whole Sudetenland is unlikely, since it forms a ring arounf the border of Bohemia and Moravia. The Northern and Western portions perhaps, but not the Southern Bohemian (Budějovice) and Southern Moravian part around Mikulov.

Czechs might not have been numerous compared to the German mass of the time, but they would cause trouble one way or another: the Švejk way. ;) Russia still was regarded as the protector of the Slavs, who wouldn't mind expanding its influence into Czechia, like it did with Serbia and Montenegro before and as it would habe remained the case with Bulgaria, was it not for the Balkan Wars, Bulgaria's loss of Macedonia and it's resentment with it's neighbours Serbia and Greece. Would Russia risk and outright war over Czechia though? I can't say. We'd all be speculating. Depending on how stabile it is internally?
 
Likes: Futurist

arkteia

Ad Honorem
Nov 2012
4,722
Seattle
#23
I voted twice, sorry. But it did not change much. I voted for the Romanovs and the Hapsburgs. Thinking that the Romanovs would have done something without the war, and soon.

First, prince Alexis had little chance to survive puberty. His hemophilia was pretty severe, either it would have killed, him, or in any chance, he probably would not have left posterity.

I don't understand why Nicholas could have not revoked the Paline (Salic) law. His oldest daughter Olga, while somewhat emotional like her mother, was smart and strong-willed. He could have passed the throne on to her, but I think that her real power would have been seriously limited by the Duma.

The centrifugal powers in Habsburg empire were very strong. I think the empire would have split.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,885
SoCal
#24
This royal hemophiliac managed to have two children (including one son) before dying as the age of 30:

Prince Leopold, Duke of Albany - Wikipedia

Meanwhile, this royal hemophiliac managed to live to age 56 and only died as a result of a lack of available blood transfusions:

Prince Waldemar of Prussia (1889–1945) - Wikipedia

Thus, it's not out of the question that Alexei could have lived long enough to have children--including at least one son. As for Nicholas changing the Russian succession rules, he actually do that and might have very well done that if Alexei would have died. He would not have done this before Alexei's death, though; else, he would have already done it before WWI.
 

arkteia

Ad Honorem
Nov 2012
4,722
Seattle
#25
This royal hemophiliac managed to have two children (including one son) before dying as the age of 30:

Prince Leopold, Duke of Albany - Wikipedia

Meanwhile, this royal hemophiliac managed to live to age 56 and only died as a result of a lack of available blood transfusions:

Prince Waldemar of Prussia (1889–1945) - Wikipedia

Thus, it's not out of the question that Alexei could have lived long enough to have children--including at least one son. As for Nicholas changing the Russian succession rules, he actually do that and might have very well done that if Alexei would have died. He would not have done this before Alexei's death, though; else, he would have already done it before WWI.
Yes, but have you ever read that the doctors, essentially, told Nicholas that Alexis would, likely, not survive puberty? It was shortly before he abdicated.

And also, one of Queen Victoria's grandchildren died from the same hemophilia at 2 years of age.

There are different types of hemophilia. It is unknown what kind Alexis had, if we are to believe geneticists (I don't know what to think of Romanov's remnants), it was less common hemophilia B. Given the fact that the descendants of Queen Victoria have no hemophilia, one wonders if with each generation, the disease would become more severe till it would eventually kill the bearers.

JMO.

But here is what I found - very interesting; a subject for "Alternative history".

Princess Alix had a marriage proposal from her first cousin, Prince Albert, eldest son of the then Prince of Wales, later king Edward VII; imagine that she accepted. This would have returned hemophilia into direct British monarchy line.

How would Britain look today?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,885
SoCal
#26
This I would have too look deeper into, but I think you might be on to something. One man one vote certainly weekens Hungarian hegemony in that half of the empire, but if the various minorities don't work together, their votes remain fractured. Rallying Slovaks, Romanians, Serbs, Slovenes and Croats to the same cause could prove to be quite difficult, I think.
Yeah, the logic would be to weaken Magyar power in Hungary by giving everyone in multi-ethnic Hungary the right to vote. Of course, as you said, getting broad support among all Hungarian minorities might be quite a challenge. Indeed, I suspect that the Magyars will try playing divide and conquer in such a scenario by making deals with one ethnic group while ignoring the rest.

Germans and most of the Slovenes until 1917/18 for sure. Italians, Hungarians, Serbs and Czechs rather not.
In regards to the Hungarians, I thought that they really liked their arrangement under A-H?

I can't speak about Poles and Rhutenians/Ukrainians with conficence because I don't know enough about them, I merely know their quarrels between each other started to grow in the time right before ww1 in Galicia. For Slovaks and Romanians I guess it depends on how much you can influence them via their animossity against Hungarians and other Slavs (in case of the Romanians) and what you promise them. Croats were pushing for Trialism, thus I'd put them on the less loyal side as well. Bosniaks proved as good and relyable soldiers in ww1 but afaik they didn't have much of a say in Austrian-controlled Bosnia and don't forget about their relations with the Croats and Serbs although I think other South Slavic members of our forum might say more about this than I.
OK.

I guess so?
OK.

Agreed, but without ww1 there is might be less of a push for the Romanovs to be deposed.
In the short-run, Yes. In the long-run, I'm not so sure.

I didn't say that the Romanovs would be deposed immediately; rather, I said that I suspect that the Romanovs have a high chance of being deposed eventually even without the World Wars.

Unless Rasputin's growing influence keeps growing and remains unchallenged to a point where it becomes a reason to overthrow the Tsar. How likely do you think this is? He was much trusted by the imperial family, especially the Empress, but he gained more influence through the Empress in the Tsar's relative absence or apathy in face of the war. I'd like to hear your opinion aboit this.
Rasputin could still have a lot of influence in Russia even without World War I. After all, Nicholas's wife trusted him and Nicholas might not have wanted to risk disobeying his wife and Rasputin--especially if Alexei would have died shortly after such disobedience and his wife and Rasputin would have blamed Nicholas's disobedience for Alexei's death.

I forget who it was - the Tsar's uncle, merhinks? You know, the very tall gentleman with a mustache who was a military figure in the war as well. Perhaps he'd play some role in this scenario as well?
You mean Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich?

Britain's monarch was closer kin than the A-H one though and if you want to play big, Britains support is more important internationally, whereas A-H might prove a growing dead end. In the case of A-H crumbling, perhaps German Austria could have been incorporated in the empire as a kingdom, like Bavaria, Saxony or Württemberg (I doubt Habsburg pride would allow this though) and then they'd influence the newly formed states economically or whatever. Hard to say. Don't forget the Ottoman Epire though. They were an ally then as well. Not that they matter much, if A-H falls beforehand, but if Germany is on good terms with Britain, they could get some colonies in that region, if the Ottoman Empire goes down as well.
I don't think that Germany actually wanted to annex any part of A-H, though. Rather, it probably wanted to keep A-H intact in order to have a strong ally in Central Europe. Sure, A-H had its own problems, but it was a German ally for several decades by the 1910s. Thus, I don't think that Germany would have let A-H collapse and break up without a fight. Please keep in mind that, regardless of their genealogical relationship to each other, Kaiser Bill and Franz Ferdinand appear to have been good friends--and let's face it, good friends are willing to help each other out when one of them is in trouble.

As for the Ottomans, it's possible that they could break up eventually, but like with A-H, I don't see this happening in the near future without the World Wars. What would help the Ottomans is the common faith of their subjects, though.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,885
SoCal
#27
Yes, but have you ever read that the doctors, essentially, told Nicholas that Alexis would, likely, not survive puberty? It was shortly before he abdicated.

And also, one of Queen Victoria's grandchildren died from the same hemophilia at 2 years of age.

There are different types of hemophilia. It is unknown what kind Alexis had, if we are to believe geneticists (I don't know what to think of Romanov's remnants), it was less common hemophilia B. Given the fact that the descendants of Queen Victoria have no hemophilia, one wonders if with each generation, the disease would become more severe till it would eventually kill the bearers.

JMO.
Do you like a link for this? Indeed, I would personally like to read this.

But here is what I found - very interesting; a subject for "Alternative history".

Princess Alix had a marriage proposal from her first cousin, Prince Albert, eldest son of the then Prince of Wales, later king Edward VII; imagine that she accepted. This would have returned hemophilia into direct British monarchy line.

How would Britain look today?
Well, at least Britain wouldn't have had to worry about as much since their monarch had much less power than the Russian one.

Also, here's another interesting AH: The future German Kaiser Wilhelm II dies in 1880 as a result of falling and severely hitting his head on a hard surface (which results in massive internal bleeding that kills him). Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich becomes the new German Kaiser in 1888 and his wife Irene is a carrier of the hemophilia gene. How does Germany deal with it if Heinrich's and Irene's firstborn son is a hemophiliac?
 
Likes: arkteia

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,885
SoCal
#28
Perhaps, perhaps not. The Czechs would have certainly preffered Russia, but Idk how much Britain and France approve of an expansion of Russia's influence westwards. Might still be the lesser evil in the eyes of the French ...
A direct Russian annexation of the Czech lands would be unlikely because German Silesia separates Russian Poland from Czechia. Is Russia also going to want to annex German Silesia--because if so, that will definitely mean war with Germany!

I think that Britain and France are going to prefer the existence of an independent Czechoslovak state. Russia might also prefer this. However, Germany might be unwilling to allow the creation of such a state since such a state would likely be a Russian ally and would form a huge salient within Germany. Maybe Germany would be willing to compromise if the Czechoslovaks will agree to install a Hohenzollern as their King, but frankly, I just don't see this as very likely--overthrowing the Hapsburgs and then replacing them with the Hohenzollerns.

Unless Germany controls German Austria as well, an anexation of the whole Sudetenland is unlikely, since it forms a ring arounf the border of Bohemia and Moravia. The Northern and Western portions perhaps, but not the Southern Bohemian (Budějovice) and Southern Moravian part around Mikulov.
Agreed.

Czechs might not have been numerous compared to the German mass of the time, but they would cause trouble one way or another: the Švejk way. ;) Russia still was regarded as the protector of the Slavs, who wouldn't mind expanding its influence into Czechia, like it did with Serbia and Montenegro before and as it would habe remained the case with Bulgaria, was it not for the Balkan Wars, Bulgaria's loss of Macedonia and it's resentment with it's neighbours Serbia and Greece. Would Russia risk and outright war over Czechia though? I can't say. We'd all be speculating. Depending on how stabile it is internally?
What is the Svejk way?

As for Russia risking outright war over Czechia, it would only have a chance of doing this if both Britain and France will give it their support.
 

arkteia

Ad Honorem
Nov 2012
4,722
Seattle
#29
Do you like a link for this? Indeed, I would personally like to read this.



Well, at least Britain wouldn't have had to worry about as much since their monarch had much less power than the Russian one.

Also, here's another interesting AH: The future German Kaiser Wilhelm II dies in 1880 as a result of falling and severely hitting his head on a hard surface (which results in massive internal bleeding that kills him). Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich becomes the new German Kaiser in 1888 and his wife Irene is a carrier of the hemophilia gene. How does Germany deal with it if Heinrich's and Irene's firstborn son is a hemophiliac?
About the link. No I don’t because it just stuck in my memory from very old times.

But the reality is, we know very little about the hemophilia Alexis had. Assuming it was hemophilia B because the mutation found in “Romanov’s bones” was of that type... but maybe not? (Until the Russian church accepts or denies Romanovs’ DNA testing results, I am having my doubts).

On the other hand, the royal mutation was of the rare type. (This is why some even allege Queen Victoria was a Non-paternal event). They cite the chance of the de novo mutation, 1:20000. Exceptionally low. These numbers are true for hemophilia B, hemophilia A is four times as common. So I assume someone, somehow, knew what type of hemophilia Queen Victoria’s descendants had, and it probably was hemophilia B.

Now there are tons of mutations known to cause hemophilia B, some of them minimal, causing mild form of the disease, some, severe. In the affected families, the penetrance is different, as some girls, surprisingly, may, too, have a severe form of hemophilia B, producing only one 10% of clotting factor IX. I don’t know how the mutant gene behaves when passed down from one generation to another, but can the disease get worse? (It is the case for Hungtington’s disease, but hemophilia B is too rare to know for sure).

To make matters more complicated, there is also Hemophilia B Leyden,

“Several mutations near the beginning of the F9 gene sequence cause an unusual form of hemophilia known as hemophilia B Leyden. People with these mutations are born with very low levels of functional coagulation factor IX, but hormonal changes cause the levels of this protein to increase gradually during puberty. As a result, adults with hemophilia B Leyden rarely experience episodes of abnormal bleeding.”

Could it be the case for Victoria’s descendants? We shall never know as Alexis was killed, but given the fact that hemophilia did not spread along all royal families in Europe, I suspect it was severe enough and royal carriers simply died out. (There is a possibility that some children of carriers could have decided not to have kids; this is suspected about Alix’s sister Ella. If so, such decisions could have helped weed the bad gene out).
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,885
SoCal
#30
We're not allowed to talk about genetics here. Thus, thank you for your information, arkteia, but I really do think that we should either stop this conversation or continue it privately via PM, if that is actually allowed on this forum.
 

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