Who is right in Hong Kong?

Mrbsct

Ad Honorem
Jul 2013
2,659
USA
Who is right in Hong Kong? The CCP or the Hong Kong protesters? I am pretty confused on the moral question.

Some say HK should be independent. Others say the CCP has the right to enforce nationhood.
 

Ichon

Ad Honorem
Mar 2013
3,778
It is confusing because Hong Kong has been basically under a different system of rule for more than a century or 3-5 generations. The whole point for China is about national pride for the treaties China was forced to sign allowing British occupation in the first place though without that occupation Hong Kong would be a small unimportant island. The real wealth of Hong Kong is in its people and China seems to bet they can satisfy national pride and gain half the people of Hong Kong and still come out ahead. I think most people in Hong Kong realized that is a bad deal for them and decided now is their best chance to modify that arrangement. I think it will fail and there will be a mass exodus from Hong Kong by those with the means- most with any real wealth have already set up to flee while a few will be captured by China with a huge amount of basically innocents also captured when China finally moves in.

The only thing stopping China now is that Hong Kong is still hugely important for facilitating international deals and technology transfers but even more important is what the precedent of Hong Kong shows for Taiwan which is the REAL strategic goal of the CCP and the PLA to finally end the civil war and prove the CCP right as well as gain undisputed access to vast areas of ocean around China where Japan and Taiwan are the main resistors against. If China uses too much force in Hong Kong then Taiwan will become hardline and while China could easily crush Hong Kong by force, if Taiwan decides it is fight to the death or die anyway then China would face hugely costly military option vs Taiwan and also have the rest of the world turn against it upsetting two decades of diplomacy.

I think the pragmatists in the PLA and CCP understand that and are winning the internal fight on what to do but Taiwan is already going more hardline with even the restraint China is displaying in Hong Kong and I think China will run out of patience before Hong Kongers do because Hong Kong understand that the current game China plays is to wait so long that no other power dares to challenge them- China is not at that point yet and might not be able to stomach Hong Kong continually slapping them in the face with the blatant resistance. If China loses its ability to keep cool with an economic downturn or political scandal due to corruption or something else that is when the real crisis happens.

Japan won't intervene if China moves into Hong Kong by force but with that as a warning, Japan will militarize even further and probably do almost everything short of a guaranty of autonomy for Taiwan while the US will also go extremely hardline vs China. China is strong enough to defeat any single adversary in its own area but I am not sure they can easily win vs the combination of the US, re-militarized, Japan, hardline Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, and probably India- India wouldn't necessarily do it to help Taiwan but out of its own self interest to grab what it can while China is distracted as the Hindu nationalists also have national pride at stake after the 1962 war that saw India cede territory to China.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Menshevik
Feb 2017
526
Latin America
Hong Kongers were not originally protesting for independence but for "democratic" autonomy. Only until the last couple of months did a significant portion of the leadership suddenly make the protests about independence when they originally were not. The whole thing started because the Chinese government extradited a man who murdered his pregnant ex-girlfriend.

Secondly, it's neither just about "nationhood", but about defending public order and defending the anti-imperialist revolution. The Hong Kong protesters are a fascist mob financed by the NED and the HRF and with ties with neo-Nazis that have killed two people, set on fire a man and laid waste to the Polytechnic Hong Kong University, as well as publicly assaulting bystanders. They're armed with gas canisters, bats and even explosive arrows. Their ideology is neocolonial, waving Union Jacks and citing the words of colonial imperialist Winston Churchill. The ultimate goal is for the US to open a military base right there if Hong Kong manages to become independent, albeit there are some protesters who have called for the UK to recolonise it. So no, it's not just, if it is even about that, "protecting Chinese nationhood" but about defeating a fascist and neocolonial counterrevolution.
 

Ichon

Ad Honorem
Mar 2013
3,778
Hong Kongers were not originally protesting for independence but for "democratic" autonomy. Only until the last couple of months did a significant portion of the leadership suddenly make the protests about independence when they originally were not. The whole thing started because the Chinese government extradited a man who murdered his pregnant ex-girlfriend.

Secondly, it's neither just about "nationhood", but about defending public order and defending the anti-imperialist revolution. The Hong Kong protesters are a fascist mob financed by the NED and the HRF and with ties with neo-Nazis that have killed two people, set on fire a man and laid waste to the Polytechnic Hong Kong University, as well as publicly assaulting bystanders. They're armed with gas canisters, bats and even explosive arrows. Their ideology is neocolonial, waving Union Jacks and citing the words of colonial imperialist Winston Churchill. The ultimate goal is for the US to open a military base right there if Hong Kong manages to become independent, albeit there are some protesters who have called for the UK to recolonise it. So no, it's not just, if it is even about that, "protecting Chinese nationhood" but about defeating a fascist and neocolonial counterrevolution.
There is some suspicious financing of a few of the protester organizations but do you really believe 100,000s of people are getting paid to protest week after week? That would be entirely easy to prove and is propaganda by China who really wishes that were true. The people in Hong Kong have a different mindset from modern Chinese. Most people in Hong Kong did not live thru what mainlanders did and are the product of a fusion of Confucian 20th century Chinese business and British colonialism and really do think differently than mainlanders. If China could remain stable and slowly gain authority and place propaganda in the Hong Kong school system and convince most of the wealthy in Hong Kong their future success relies with China then in 1-2 generations Hong Kong would re-unite with China with only a few protests. Unfortunately, China seems to be impatient to demonstrate its new power and the game in Hong Kong is distant 2nd to the game with Taiwan and I think that China will lose patience before Hong Kong does though really Hong Kong has not suffered yet and it will be interesting to see how much resistance occurs by the relatively spoiled citizen of Hong Kong when China really makes a threat.
 

Mrbsct

Ad Honorem
Jul 2013
2,659
USA
My problem is this. Yes the HKers have the right to be themselves, my problem is they are protesting for something that was never meant to be. The British had no right being there.

Yes the CCP is tyrannical. So is Modi in India. Why isn't the media protesting over there?
 
Feb 2017
526
Latin America
There is some suspicious financing of a few of the protester organizations but do you really believe 100,000s of people are getting paid to protest week after week? That would be entirely easy to prove and is propaganda by China who really wishes that were true.
No, but the leaders that mobilise them such as Joshua Wong are. Also, by saying "suspicious" you seem to imply it's not been proven. It's not something that has yet to be fully established, it's a fact:
I mean, they've been financing their leadership since before the current round of protests because Netflix even made a documentary two years ago about Joshua Wong.


The people in Hong Kong have a different mindset from modern Chinese. Most people in Hong Kong did not live thru what mainlanders did and are the product of a fusion of Confucian 20th century Chinese business and British colonialism and really do think differently than mainlanders.
"Thinking differently" doesn't justify any recolonisation attempts nor any form of neocolonialism.

If China could remain stable and slowly gain authority and place propaganda in the Hong Kong school system and convince most of the wealthy in Hong Kong their future success relies with China then in 1-2 generations Hong Kong would re-unite with China with only a few protests. Unfortunately, China seems to be impatient to demonstrate its new power and the game in Hong Kong is distant 2nd to the game with Taiwan and I think that China will lose patience before Hong Kong does though really Hong Kong has not suffered yet and it will be interesting to see how much resistance occurs by the relatively spoiled citizen of Hong Kong when China really makes a threat.
The Hong Kong protest leadership has already lost its patience because it has killed 2 people and nearly killed another by setting him on fire. In fact, if anything, the Chinese government has been so lenient on the Hong Kong fascist mob one can even think it's complicit in their violent behaviour. Also, the Chinese haven't done absolutely anything remotely authoritarian in Hong Kong since they were reunited except by the laughable, illegitimate standards of the imperialist West, so I simply don't know where you get that China plays superpower with Hong Kong when it simply doesn't.
 
Last edited:

Ichon

Ad Honorem
Mar 2013
3,778
No, but the leaders that mobilise them such as Joshua Wong are. Also, by saying "suspicious" you seem to imply it's not been proven. It's not something that has yet to be fully established, it's a fact:

"Thinking differently" doesn't justify any recolonisation attempts nor any form of neocolonialism.

The Hong Kong protest leadership has already lost its patience because it has killed 2 people and nearly killed another by setting him on fire. In fact, if anything, the Chinese government has been so lenient on the Hong Kong fascist mob one can even think it's complicit in their violent behaviour. Also, the Chinese haven't done absolutely anything remotely authoritarian in Hong Kong since they were reunited except by the laughable, illegitimate standards of the imperialist West, so I simply don't know where you get that China plays superpower with Hong Kong when it simply doesn't.
It depends on what you believe is the intent of foreign financing. There is no question foreign groups are supporting many people who are taking leading roles financially but are they fully directing those people? Maybe a handful are acting as actual foreign agents but most are simply doing what is more like unofficial lobbying.

I never said Hong Kong is justified- only that I understand why so many people there are eager to protest so long as it doesn't cost them too much. China and Hong Kong have different mindset and when China does take over Hong Kong things will change. People that don't like that will naturally protest and many with the opportunity will leave but when it comes down to making real sacrifices to leave vs stay I think China is making the bet more will stay and I think they are probably correct in the short term but in the long term in the 10-20 years after China fully controls Hong Kong there will be many of the most skilled people in Hong Kong leaving if they can. Probably still less than 20% of the population but the most valuable 20%

Should I quote myself where I said China has shown restraint and Hong Kong hasn't had to really suffer anything yet except for a handful of people randomly caught in the violence? I am saying that IF China loses its patience THEN there will be tyranny but it hasn't happened yet. I believe it WILL happen because China is actually being too nice. If China acted a bit more strongly more quickly and used non-violent means to remind Hong Kong what is at stake the 'cause' wouldn't be so eagerly supported by young people who find it a cool 'daring' challenge to authority at relatively low risk. The danger is in acting TOO hard or too soft. I have the feeling China will overcompensate for having acted too soft because it doesn't understand the mindset of Hong Kong.

The tactics China is using would work in China... Hong Kong IS China... but the people aren't the same as mainland Chinese and that is the mistake.
 
Feb 2017
526
Latin America
It depends on what you believe is the intent of foreign financing. There is no question foreign groups are supporting many people who are taking leading roles financially but are they fully directing those people? Maybe a handful are acting as actual foreign agents but most are simply doing what is more like unofficial lobbying.
Why does it matter if it's "unofficial lobbying"? What matters is that they are being financed. And yes, they are fully directing them. Joshua Wong has met with US officials, including high level ones like Ted Cruz.



I never said Hong Kong is justified- only that I understand why so many people there are eager to protest so long as it doesn't cost them too much. China and Hong Kong have different mindset and when China does take over Hong Kong things will change. People that don't like that will naturally protest and many with the opportunity will leave but when it comes down to making real sacrifices to leave vs stay I think China is making the bet more will stay and I think they are probably correct in the short term but in the long term in the 10-20 years after China fully controls Hong Kong there will be many of the most skilled people in Hong Kong leaving if they can. Probably still less than 20% of the population but the most valuable 20%
You don't back up this sort of authoritarian control and repression over Hong Kong. China can "take over" Hong Kong all it wants too. It's part of its territory. It's like Scotland "taking over" the Orkneys or Denmark "taking over" Zealand.


Should I quote myself where I said China has shown restraint and Hong Kong hasn't had to really suffer anything yet except for a handful of people randomly caught in the violence?
Mother of Christ this is awful. No, people didn't "randomly caught in the violence". This is so terrible when we have the video of the man set on fire intentionally by one of the fascist protesters, while arguing with the person. The man killed by a brick thrown at him wasn't something unintentional, it was by those mobs intentionally targeting people telling them to go away. A student was pushed from a parking lot. This is the opposite of getting caught in violence. This is targeted violence by these fascist mobs.

I am saying that IF China loses its patience THEN there will be tyranny but it hasn't happened yet. I believe it WILL happen because China is actually being too nice. If China acted a bit more strongly more quickly and used non-violent means to remind Hong Kong what is at stake the 'cause' wouldn't be so eagerly supported by young people who find it a cool 'daring' challenge to authority at relatively low risk. The danger is in acting TOO hard or too soft. I have the feeling China will overcompensate for having acted too soft because it doesn't understand the mindset of Hong Kong.
Again, it's the Hong Kong protesters who have lost their patience, and you're right, the Chinese government is playing so nice with them that one can accuse it of being downright complicit in their violence.

The tactics China is using would work in China... Hong Kong IS China... but the people aren't the same as mainland Chinese and that is the mistake.
So you're saying that the Hong Kongers who speak Chinese, were before British colonisation politically part of China, are geographically a strip of land inside of China, and are culturally Chinese in their Confucian, Daoist and Buddhist culture, aren't Chinese?
 

Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,503
here
My problem is this. Yes the HKers have the right to be themselves, my problem is they are protesting for something that was never meant to be. The British had no right being there.

Yes the CCP is tyrannical. So is Modi in India. Why isn't the media protesting over there?
The British had no right being there then, but the CCP does now? Why?
 

Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,503
here
It is confusing because Hong Kong has been basically under a different system of rule for more than a century or 3-5 generations. The whole point for China is about national pride for the treaties China was forced to sign allowing British occupation in the first place though without that occupation Hong Kong would be a small unimportant island. The real wealth of Hong Kong is in its people and China seems to bet they can satisfy national pride and gain half the people of Hong Kong and still come out ahead. I think most people in Hong Kong realized that is a bad deal for them and decided now is their best chance to modify that arrangement. I think it will fail and there will be a mass exodus from Hong Kong by those with the means- most with any real wealth have already set up to flee while a few will be captured by China with a huge amount of basically innocents also captured when China finally moves in.

The only thing stopping China now is that Hong Kong is still hugely important for facilitating international deals and technology transfers but even more important is what the precedent of Hong Kong shows for Taiwan which is the REAL strategic goal of the CCP and the PLA to finally end the civil war and prove the CCP right as well as gain undisputed access to vast areas of ocean around China where Japan and Taiwan are the main resistors against. If China uses too much force in Hong Kong then Taiwan will become hardline and while China could easily crush Hong Kong by force, if Taiwan decides it is fight to the death or die anyway then China would face hugely costly military option vs Taiwan and also have the rest of the world turn against it upsetting two decades of diplomacy.

I think the pragmatists in the PLA and CCP understand that and are winning the internal fight on what to do but Taiwan is already going more hardline with even the restraint China is displaying in Hong Kong and I think China will run out of patience before Hong Kongers do because Hong Kong understand that the current game China plays is to wait so long that no other power dares to challenge them- China is not at that point yet and might not be able to stomach Hong Kong continually slapping them in the face with the blatant resistance. If China loses its ability to keep cool with an economic downturn or political scandal due to corruption or something else that is when the real crisis happens.

Japan won't intervene if China moves into Hong Kong by force but with that as a warning, Japan will militarize even further and probably do almost everything short of a guaranty of autonomy for Taiwan while the US will also go extremely hardline vs China. China is strong enough to defeat any single adversary in its own area but I am not sure they can easily win vs the combination of the US, re-militarized, Japan, hardline Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, and probably India- India wouldn't necessarily do it to help Taiwan but out of its own self interest to grab what it can while China is distracted as the Hindu nationalists also have national pride at stake after the 1962 war that saw India cede territory to China.
Thanks for this summary. I haven’t really paid much attention to the current situation in HK. This fleshes things out for me.