Who will be the next rising superpower

Feb 2017
373
Cardiff,UK
We all know China (If it doesn't have a Revolution) is the next big thing. Trump could return the US to top place for even longer or he could doom it. But lets assume none of that happens and China rises to America's Status. Who will be the new superpower to rise after China? Brazil? Could one of the European Counties regain it's former prowess? Could Japan become less neutral? Who will take China's current position as rising power.
 
Jun 2015
579
Camelot
Brazil's geography is too bad, and it has few traditions of power to speak of. Argentina has potential, as does Mexico. A united Shiastan comprising a revolting handful of Gulf State shia populations, Iraq, Iran, and Syria as a satellite would be imposing for its control over oil and rapid gain in riches thereof. Iran also has a very educated population and is industrially competent. India can do quite well, as can Saudi Arabia if manages to confederate the Gulf States in response to an Iranian nuclear threat.

The EU has mostly failed in almost all of its tasks.
 

pikeshot1600

Ad Honorem
Jul 2009
9,958
We all know China (If it doesn't have a Revolution) is the next big thing. Trump could return the US to top place for even longer or he could doom it. But lets assume none of that happens and China rises to America's Status. Who will be the new superpower to rise after China? Brazil? Could one of the European Counties regain it's former prowess? Could Japan become less neutral? Who will take China's current position as rising power.
The United States is aging; Europe is fractured and exhausted; Russia is fading away demographically and Japan is too small, has little access to natural resources and has its own serious demographic issues. It is hard to see Brazil as anything but a factor in South America. The country has little history of military greatness; it has no naval ambitions at all, and is still very much a developing country.

China has the tools, but also has little gravitas away from east Asia. China being a great world power is not a forgone conclusion. The country has many difficulties to negotiate. Not least of which is that it has never had to contend with a disastrous economic collapse. The West has experienced and recovered from them. China has not.
 
Feb 2017
373
Cardiff,UK
The United States is aging; Europe is fractured and exhausted; Russia is fading away demographically and Japan is too small, has little access to natural resources and has its own serious demographic issues. It is hard to see Brazil as anything but a factor in South America. The country has little history of military greatness; it has no naval ambitions at all, and is still very much a developing country.

China has the tools, but also has little gravitas away from east Asia. China being a great world power is not a forgone conclusion. The country has many difficulties to negotiate. Not least of which is that it has never had to contend with a disastrous economic collapse. The West has experienced and recovered from them. China has not.
So who is your pick to replace the US and China. The USA can still recover it has the resources and power. Just needs a strong leader.

Europe Is exhausted maybe but European Countries are #4,#5 and #6 Economies in the World and #4 and #6 could even unify in the EU (Anybody else find it wrong that such enemies as Germany and France are in a union. Foch would spin in his grave)

China is still probably going to become the next superpower though. Mabye India could compete but not yet
 
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Feb 2017
373
Cardiff,UK
Brazil's geography is too bad, and it has few traditions of power to speak of. Argentina has potential, as does Mexico. A united Shiastan comprising a revolting handful of Gulf State shia populations, Iraq, Iran, and Syria as a satellite would be imposing for its control over oil and rapid gain in riches thereof. Iran also has a very educated population and is industrially competent. India can do quite well, as can Saudi Arabia if manages to confederate the Gulf States in response to an Iranian nuclear threat.

The EU has mostly failed in almost all of its tasks.
Argentina has about as much potential as Iran. They hardly even have a military at the moment. Cant see them becoming a superpower or a rising superpower like China in the next 100 years. Mexico is actually a good pick but within 100 years? Saudis too reliant on Oil in my opinion. The EU has failed but the countries themselves?

#4,#5 and #6 World Economies with a bit of work who knows they could still pack a punch

India or Mexico seem good. Probbaly China will rise (Unless it get's revolutioned) and compete with the falling US (Unless it gets a strong leader) then India shall rise and compete with China. In my opinion. But with a strong leader I think quite a few countries have potential.

France,Germany,UK,Brazil,Mexico,USA,India,Turkey,South Korea,Japan could all do wonders with a strong leader but we don't have a strong leader at the moment. Just people like Angela Merkel or Corrupt Hillary/Rash Trump choose your poison.
 
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Jun 2015
579
Camelot
Argentina has about as much potential as Iran. They hardly even have a military at the moment. Cant see them becoming a superpower or a rising superpower like China in the next 100 years. Mexico is actually a good pick but within 100 years? Saudis too reliant on Oil in my opinion. The EU has failed but the countries themselves?

#4,#5 and #6 World Economies with a bit of work who knows they could still pack a punch

India or Mexico seem good. Probbaly China will rise (Unless it get's revolutioned) and compete with the falling US (Unless it gets a strong leader) then India shall rise and compete with China. In my opinion. But with a strong leader I think quite a few countries have potential.

France,Germany,UK,Brazil,Mexico,USA,India,Turkey,South Korea,Japan could all do wonders with a strong leader but we don't have a strong leader at the moment. Just people like Angela Merkel or Corrupt Hillary/Rash Trump choose your poison.
Germany always had potential, and don't underestimate Iran. Having a good system of patronage (also known as an Imperial System) is very important, and Russia and Iran have some of the best. Iran for example could swallow any Shi'ite or Aryanian nation, this would include Iraq, Kurdistan, Afghanistan, or even Baluchistan, and rule them with minimal discontent. The Islamic Republican government does one thing very well and that is its system of patronage is EXTREMELY good. Remember that strong countries today aren't always built on income levels but on systems as well. The Iraqi government funded by a "rapidly growing" economy collapsed under the weight of Iranian-backed PMFs and ISIS, both of which simply had better organization. Heavily armed, oil-funded, modern Arab armies were repeatedly defeated by the lower tech (for most of the Cold War) and lighter weight Israeli and Iranian armies. Mao's China was an extremely poor country but was considered a superpower because of its expertise at mobilizing every cooking pan of its people towards a domestic or foreign policy goal if needed, and the uncritical level of support it had from the masses.

In the next several years if Shale continues to boom and oil collapses, it's not inconceivable that we'd see a united Iran-Iraq-Syria, either in fact or directly on the map, maybe joined by a revolutionary Bahrain.

Japan has largely seen its last days of glory, and I'm not sure South Korea has much potential. If Japanese corporations once again came roaring back and somehow established a sphere of influence over South Korea (unlikely) and East Asia similar to their influence in the 80s, the nation would have potential to build a counterweight alliance to China, but at the moment they lost their historical wind.

South Korea has the problem of strong neighbors, and if it were to achieve full potential by integrating the north, that would be very costly. The Southern and northern systems of patronage, their "social contracts", are just so different. If the South wants to use the Northern resources at all, it will need to throw out the entire system the North has to provide services to their people and keep control, which will mean widespread discontent similar to the situation in Iraq after 2004. Despite living under a "better" system from the standpoint of development, Northerners will deplore the loss of the things they are used to receiving from the government - the collapse of state patronage.

France I think is on the way out, they had a good run. The present patronage system is too lazy, anti-growth, and reliant on delusions to elect any kind of credible leadership. A return to dirigisme might bring about an intrinsically "French" form of growth in the economy that would be widely accepted, but as we saw from Sarkozy, reforming the least efficient parts of the economy that are holding France back compared to Germany is extremely unpopular and a recipe for political suicide. The French are too used to the relaxation the government allows them.
 
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Nov 2016
1,531
Indus Valley, Pakistan
don't underestimate Iran. Having a good system of patronage (also known as an Imperial System) is very important, and Russia and Iran have some of the best. Iran for example could swallow any Shi'ite or Aryanian nation, this would include Iraq, Kurdistan, Afghanistan, or even Baluchistan, and rule them with minimal discontent.
Your way overestimating Iran. To begin with Iran's population is stagnating with mullah's offering incentives to increase the 2.1 fertility rate. Iranian nationalism is centred around Persian history with a Shia flavour that precludes Arab Shia's in Iraq or Syria.

And your suggestion that Iran could even grab a inch of Balochistan from Pakistan only exposes your lack of understanding of the dynamics of the region. Before Iran could even think of digesting Balochistan which is mostly Sunni it would recieve a nuclear sandwich with extra toppings from Pakistan.There goes Iranian dreams of expansion. Since economics is the foundation of power this infographic might help to give us idea of the future. By 2050 Chinese economy is expect to be nearly twice larger than US. Other winners and losers can be seen.




http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf
 
Jun 2015
579
Camelot
Your way overestimating Iran. To begin with Iran's population is stagnating with mullah's offering incentives to increase the 2.1 fertility rate. Iranian nationalism is centred around Persian history with a Shia flavour that precludes Arab Shia's in Iraq or Syria.

And your suggestion that Iran could even grab a inch of Balochistan from Pakistan only exposes your lack of understanding of the dynamics of the region. Before Iran could even think of digesting Balochistan which is mostly Sunni it would recieve a nuclear sandwich with extra toppings from Pakistan.There goes Iranian dreams of expansion. Since economics is the foundation of power this infographic might help to give us idea of the future. By 2050 Chinese economy is expect to be nearly twice larger than US. Other winners and losers can be seen.




http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf
You'd be surprised, Iraqis and Hazaras think very positively about Iranains. Ever since Shah Ismail, the Persian flavor of the Iranian regime has vanished with a brief and extremely unpopular resurgence under the House of Pahlavi.

Iran could never digest Baluchistan if Pakistan were whole. The days of conquest without shrewdness are over - in fact, they never existed. the on.y scenario in which that could happen is a collapse of Pakistan, which is a distinctly possible scenario. Then again, Baluchistan was just an example of one of the populaces that Iran could easily digest. Its economy will further significantly rise in the wake of sanctions removal and expanded trade. As for fertility, a more stable, American-level birth rate is probably good for the mountainous country, that has seen a population explosion in recent years.
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,636
San Antonio, Tx
Your way overestimating Iran. To begin with Iran's population is stagnating with mullah's offering incentives to increase the 2.1 fertility rate. Iranian nationalism is centred around Persian history with a Shia flavour that precludes Arab Shia's in Iraq or Syria.

And your suggestion that Iran could even grab a inch of Balochistan from Pakistan only exposes your lack of understanding of the dynamics of the region. Before Iran could even think of digesting Balochistan which is mostly Sunni it would recieve a nuclear sandwich with extra toppings from Pakistan.There goes Iranian dreams of expansion. Since economics is the foundation of power this infographic might help to give us idea of the future. By 2050 Chinese economy is expect to be nearly twice larger than US. Other winners and losers can be seen.




http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf
It's not going to happen that India will be no. 2 by 2050. India is a great and dynamic place, but if you'v ever been there you'd know how far they have to go.