Will it really be bad for the world if the US collapsed?

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,068
Connecticut
#11
Lol, I can see why lots of people wouldn't mind if the US collapsed. I consider many of Trump’s decisions, especially with regard to the Mideast including Iran, so irresponsible. But without the US there might be international chaos.
 
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Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
34,525
T'Republic of Yorkshire
#12
While a world without the US is possible (and some would say preferable), a sudden collapse of the US would be catastrophic. So much of today's world relies on the US to keep it in equilibrium, from international trade and economic system to military stalemates and technology. Imagine if the DNS and GPS systems were suddenly unavailable.
 

Tulius

Ad Honorem
May 2016
5,555
Portugal
#13
Lol, I can see why lots of people wouldn't mind if the US collapsed. I consider many of Trump’s decisions, especially with regard to the Mideast including Iran, so irresponsible. But without the US there might be international chaos.
From considering that an USA current president and administration are taking wrong and idiotic decisions, privately motivated, pro-Russian, not only in the Middle East but worldwide, to wanting that the USA collapses goes a hugeeeee, really hugeeeee step.
 
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Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,245
here
#14
All things considered, the US has had a beneficent impact on the world and on history. Not always, but overall, America has been a force for good.

If the US collapses, there will be a huge power vacuum. The most glaring thing or sequence of events I see taking place in such a scenario is an arms race in the Pacific. China would be left unchecked to do as it wants. Japan, in an effort to protect its own interests and to counterbalance against China would rearm and militarize with a vengeance, that includes seeking nuclear weapons. Smaller countries on the periphery of these two giants would seek an alliance, countries like S. Korea and Taiwan would be natural allies of the Japanese. I think Vietnam would benefit as well from allying itself with Japan.


Elsewhere, I see the Israelis looking for a new alliance. And contrary to what some might say about how the tail wags the dog vis a vis the Israeli-American dynamic, I see the US as having a somewhat restraining effect on Israel. And without this restraint I see Israel being even more aggressive; they might annex the whole of certain places like the West Bank and deny citizenship to the Palestinians living there or they might push them out altogether.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,968
SoCal
#15
All things considered, the US has had a beneficent impact on the world and on history. Not always, but overall, America has been a force for good.
Well, it protected various countries from Communism during the Cold War--but also engaged in some dubious regime change projects (as well as some good ones). :(

If the US collapses, there will be a huge power vacuum. The most glaring thing or sequence of events I see taking place in such a scenario is an arms race in the Pacific. China would be left unchecked to do as it wants. Japan, in an effort to protect its own interests and to counterbalance against China would rearm and militarize with a vengeance, that includes seeking nuclear weapons. Smaller countries on the periphery of these two giants would seek an alliance, countries like S. Korea and Taiwan would be natural allies of the Japanese. I think Vietnam would benefit as well from allying itself with Japan.
Without the US, the countries near China are not going to stand a chance against China unless they will develop nukes. China's population advantage is simply way too great.

Elsewhere, I see the Israelis looking for a new alliance. And contrary to what some might say about how the tail wags the dog vis a vis the Israeli-American dynamic, I see the US as having a somewhat restraining effect on Israel. And without this restraint I see Israel being even more aggressive; they might annex the whole of certain places like the West Bank and deny citizenship to the Palestinians living there or they might push them out altogether.
Agreed. TBH, I think that the Israeli right ultimately wants this outcome--if not the entire West Bank:

 
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starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,068
Connecticut
#16
From considering that an USA current president and administration are taking wrong and idiotic decisions, privately motivated, pro-Russian, not only in the Middle East but worldwide, to wanting that the USA collapses goes a hugeeeee, really hugeeeee step.
It’s not just the current administration, since the pro-Israel element has long been entrenched on capital hill. But I agree. It would be infinitely preferable to see the US change—if only the hard way—than collapse.
 
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starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,068
Connecticut
#17
If the US collapses, there will be a huge power vacuum. The most glaring thing or sequence of events I see taking place in such a scenario is an arms race in the Pacific. China would be left unchecked to do as it wants.
Not necessarily because it would have a tough time invading Japan or Taiwan, and Russia might offer protection to other states.

I see the US as having a somewhat restraining effect on Israel. And without this restraint I see Israel being even more aggressive; they might annex the whole of certain places like the West Bank and deny citizenship to the Palestinians living there or they might push them out altogether.
Generally without the US I think Israel would finally be put in its place. It probably wouldn’t become more aggressive because it would no longer have a superpower to back it up. To gain influence, Russia and China could promise Arab states they’d blow Israel up if it attacked them. And while Israel is strong, in the past Russia backed the Arabs because they are economically and geopolitically far more important. I think Russia would have the same basic policy.
 
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Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,245
here
#18
Not necessarily because it would have a tough time invading Japan or Taiwan, and Russia might offer protection to other states.
What are you saying "Not necessarily," to? That China's neighbor's won't have any reason to be fearful because it's too hard for China to invade them?

And Russia is already a 2nd rate power, their star is not and isn't going to be in the ascendant anytime soon.


Generally without the US I think Israel would finally be put in its place. It probably wouldn’t become more aggressive because it would no longer have a superpower to back it up. To gain influence, Russia and China could promise Arab states they’d blow Israel up if it attacked them. And while Israel is strong, in the past Russia backed the Arabs because they are economically and geopolitically far more important. I think Russia would have the same basic policy.
And why would Russia or China do such a thing? That's absurd.
 

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,068
Connecticut
#20
What are you saying "Not necessarily," to? That China's neighbor's won't have any reason to be fearful because it's too hard for China to invade them?

And Russia is already a 2nd rate power, their star is not and isn't going to be in the ascendant anytime soon.
Without US protection, they'd have reason to be fearful, as China could strike at them even without invading. Russia retains its nuclear aresenal and could provide a new “nuclear umbrella.”



And why would Russia or China do such a thing? That's absurd.
I already indicated why in my previous post—to gain influence in a vitally important part of the world. Russia has sought this for 70 years. Without any US to restrain Israel if necessary, the Arabs would have to turn to some other state for protection, and most likely Russia or China. But neither is really in a position to match Israeli conventional strength locally, so for their promises of protection to be credible they’d have to include n bombs.
 

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