Will it really be bad for the world if the US collapsed?

Dec 2012
9,083
here
#21
Without US protection, they'd have reason to be fearful, as China could strike at them even without invading. Russia retains its nuclear aresenal and could provide a new “nuclear umbrella.”
And why would these countries look to Russia for protection? Why wouldn't these countries just create their own nuclear weapons?


I already indicated why in my previous post—to gain influence in a vitally important part of the world. Russia has sought this for 70 years. Without any US to restrain Israel if necessary, the Arabs would have to turn to some other state for protection, and most likely Russia or China. But neither is really in a position to match Israeli conventional strength locally, so for their promises of protection to be credible they’d have to include n bombs.
But Russia and China already have influence in the ME and part of that influence is predicated on their relations (which include military and economic ties) with Israel.

And the thought that Russia or China would use nuclear weapons on Israel should it attack one of it's neighbors isn't logical, it's preposterous.
 
Feb 2016
4,294
Japan
#23
It’s a rather big concept, but how the world would handle it would depend on the speed and nature of the collapse.

A staggered, managed break up would have less impact than an overnight collapse or annihilation...

If it’s the latter, the whole world would be affected, instantly. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea would suddenly be in a very weak position vs China, China itself would be plunged into economic disaster... would see simple effects around the globe.
 
Likes: Azad67
Jan 2017
4,323
Sydney
#24
The geopolitics wouldn't get too drastic , with Israel as an exception
the economics would be really bad ,
while the world could bear the disappearance of the US Navy with a shrug
the disappearance of the US dollar would create a 100 Trillions black hole
the world trading would be shaken to the core
 
Likes: Azad67
Jan 2014
3,992
Connecticut
#25
And why would these countries look to Russia for protection? Why wouldn't these countries just create their own nuclear weapons?
Japan and Taiwan have long relied in US i.e. outside protection. They’re hardly big enough to stand up to China themselves.

But Russia and China already have influence in the ME and part of that influence is predicated on their relations (which include military and economic ties) with Israel.
Putin appears to have good relations with Israel but I think that’s just expediency. The principal focus lately has been on fighting internal enemies of Arab regimes, notably in Syria, not Israel. But things should change when the internal messes are finally cleaned up. Inter-Arab conflicts come and go but Israel is a perennial...In order to maintain its position in the Arab or Muslim world, Russia will have to back the Arabs against Israel—just like in the past. China would have to do the same. In fact the US has long been just about the only country to back Israel fully, no doubt because only it could afford such a foolish luxury i.e. risk alienating the vastly more important Arab world by backing Israel.

And the thought that Russia or China would use nuclear weapons on Israel should it attack one of it's neighbors isn't logical, it's preposterous.
Without the risk of US intervention, it would be quite feasible. But presumably it would only be done—after initial warning— in the event of an all out Israeli attack like in ‘67, which the arabs can’t handle themselves.
 
Jan 2019
41
Eastern Europe
#26
countries like S. Korea and Taiwan would be natural allies of the Japanese
Will they though? I heard the phrase that in Asia, countries don't like China but hate Japan.

Generally without the US I think Israel would finally be put in its place. It probably wouldn’t become more aggressive because it would no longer have a superpower to back it up
I am not sure about its place, but after six-day war I don't believe that any arab country should claim that Israel is bad.


Though I would argue the definition of collapse, after all USA is not the union unlike soviets, that could split into multiple countries. Though I do dream about single North American Country that include Canada, Mexico and USA. Would be a great powerhouse. We won't have a power vacuum anymore because it is not the cold war era with two blocks. We have China, India, EU, USA and South America + Africa on the rise. I get the idea of Trump to remove dollar as a global currency and create clearing zones instead though.
 
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Likes: Menshevik
Oct 2015
936
Norway
#27
Yes, it would be bad for the rest of the world. All of the potential alternatives that would rise to fill the void are significantly worse than the US.
I agree. Who would fill the gap? The EU is too wrapped up in their own problems, Russia has a lower GDP than Spain and is under uathoritarian rule. China would fill much of the void. The US has many faults, but I would chose the USA over China 100 out of a 100 times.
 
Jan 2017
4,323
Sydney
#28
everyone seems to forget that the "superpower" meme is a typical American construct
superman , superfries , super-whatever
neither China , India or Russia care much for it
their concern is for their regional sphere and wish not for anyone pushing them around
once they get the respect they consider due to them , it's all peachy from then on
The US took the mantle of the world great protector
none of the other above mentioned countries really care for this silly job
one could even say that a temporary eclipse of the USA would do wonder for a lot of present day conflicts
 
Jan 2017
4,323
Sydney
#30
Nothing wrong with hating one's neighbor
that's normal
but keeping the peace rest on a cool headed vision of the consequences
should there be any doubts
a bit of head kicking bring peace and love soon enough
 

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