Will it really be bad for the world if the US collapsed?

Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,240
here
#31
Japan and Taiwan have long relied in US i.e. outside protection. They’re hardly big enough to stand up to China themselves.



Putin appears to have good relations with Israel but I think that’s just expediency. The principal focus lately has been on fighting internal enemies of Arab regimes, notably in Syria, not Israel. But things should change when the internal messes are finally cleaned up. Inter-Arab conflicts come and go but Israel is a perennial...In order to maintain its position in the Arab or Muslim world, Russia will have to back the Arabs against Israel—just like in the past. China would have to do the same. In fact the US has long been just about the only country to back Israel fully, no doubt because only it could afford such a foolish luxury i.e. risk alienating the vastly more important Arab world by backing Israel.



Without the risk of US intervention, it would be quite feasible. But presumably it would only be done—after initial warning— in the event of an all out Israeli attack like in ‘67, which the arabs can’t handle themselves.
If we're going to entertain these silly notions of Russia or China nuking Israel, then we need to consider what Israel will do in response. Israel has nukes. They could nuke Russia or China in retaliation. Obviously, Russia or China would win in such an exchange, but even if Israel only succeeded in hitting just a few of their cities, it would be a huge blow, a catastrophe for either country. Would it really be worth it for China or Russia to engage in such a game of brinkmanship?
 
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Theodoric

Ad Honorem
Mar 2012
2,738
#32
Do people miss the Soviet Union? =/

Perhaps as a unified nation with the promise of actually BEING a democratic socialist republic instead of an authoritarian republican-tsardom: complete with a state-wide command economy structure.

I am not saying that there aren't people who miss it; different opinions exist. But in its form from Stalin to the end, I find it difficult to believe anyone misses that except perhaps Slavic nationalists who like the idea of a dominant Slavic union... and very confused Westerners (there are some) who like the concept of democratic socialism and don't understand that it wasn't realized in the USSR - maybe it could have been!

And we may be past the point in history where traditional models of socialism can be effective economic forms - at least for very long, now that automation is becoming a huge factor. I think UBI is what will work in the future.


Anyway, onto the question. Yes the US disappearing would be catastrophic for the West. It would also be bad in the short term for second and third world nations under the US corporate imperialism, but in the longterm, it may be better (assuming no one else moves into the mass luxury consumption slot). In the long term, the transition of third world economies away from globalism will be FAR healthier for them. It's kind of like Europe during the medieval era: while the Romans disappearing was clearly bad for Europe, the transition to local economies allowed for tremendous growth. Under the Romans there was a lot of stagnation, particularly during the final 5-600 years from some point during the Antonine era to the fall of the Goths/Byzantine rule (which brought an end to the Roman globalism around the mid-6th to early 8th centuries); the medieval era, saw slow but sustained growth potential that really began to explode from the 11th century, unlike the Roman Empire. Europe's economy by 1400 dwarfed the Roman Europe's. Italy saw a big slide, but the rest of Europe grew during the Middle Ages. I think this is similar to what we would see with third world nations - but I expect EU not to benefit from the loss of the US.



Any economists with want to chime in?
 
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Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,716
SoCal
#33
Not necessarily because it would have a tough time invading Japan or Taiwan, and Russia might offer protection to other states.

Generally without the US I think Israel would finally be put in its place. It probably wouldn’t become more aggressive because it would no longer have a superpower to back it up. To gain influence, Russia and China could promise Arab states they’d blow Israel up if it attacked them. And while Israel is strong, in the past Russia backed the Arabs because they are economically and geopolitically far more important. I think Russia would have the same basic policy.
Just how much did the Soviet Union actually benefit from its pro-Arab stance during the Cold War, though?
 
Likes: Menshevik

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,716
SoCal
#34
If we're going to entertain these silly notions of Russia or China nuking Israel, then we need to consider what Israel will do in response. Israel has nukes. They could nuke Russia or China in retaliation. Obviously, Russia or China would win in such an exchange, but even if Israel only succeeded in hitting just a few of their cities, it would be a huge blow, a catastrophe for either country. Would it really be worth it for China or Russia to engage in such a game of brinkmanship?
There's also another factor to consider--Israel probably still has a lot of Russian citizens due to the large-scale emigration of ex-USSR Jews to Israel starting from 1989. Russia certainly wouldn't want to kill huge numbers of its own citizens!
 
Feb 2019
345
California
#35
Lol, I can see why lots of people wouldn't mind if the US collapsed. I consider many of Trump’s decisions, especially with regard to the Mideast including Iran, so irresponsible. But without the US there might be international chaos.
Well let's not get into Trump, ok? Not everyone is a leftie and there are other forums for that kind of discussion.
 
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Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,240
here
#36
Lol, I can see why lots of people wouldn't mind if the US collapsed. I consider many of Trump’s decisions, especially with regard to the Mideast including Iran, so irresponsible. But without the US there might be international chaos.
As if these negative opinions of US foreign policy only started with the current president...... :rolleyes:
 
Likes: Futurist

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,026
Connecticut
#38
If we're going to entertain these silly notions of Russia or China nuking Israel, then we need to consider what Israel will do in response. Israel has nukes. They could nuke Russia or China in retaliation. Obviously, Russia or China would win in such an exchange, but even if Israel only succeeded in hitting just a few of their cities, it would be a huge blow, a catastrophe for either country. Would it really be worth it for China or Russia to engage in such a game of brinkmanship?
Without a superpower backup Israel would probably be deterred i.e. not launch an all out attack on neighboring Arab states (Russian Clients) in the first place. Or a series of attacks like in Syria lately.
 

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,026
Connecticut
#40
There's also another factor to consider--Israel probably still has a lot of Russian citizens due to the large-scale emigration of ex-USSR Jews to Israel starting from 1989. Russia certainly wouldn't want to kill huge numbers of its own citizens!
Stalin didn’t seem so reluctant. Furthermore if they’re Jews it may not seem like quite the same thing.
 

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