Will the Conservative and Labour Parties continue to dominate the British Parliament

betgo

Ad Honorem
Jul 2011
6,509
In the proportional representation EU elections, Brexit was first and Liberal Democrats second. Will the plurality in the district system cause the Conservatives and Labour to stay in control? Will there be another general election any time soon?
 

Linschoten

Ad Honoris
Aug 2010
16,217
Welsh Marches
The first past the post system at general elections gives the two main parties a considerable advantage, and the Liberal Democrats would not do nearly as well; but if the Tories lose more than a very small percentage of their regular voters to Farage's new party, it will be impossible for them to win a general election, and they could lose a great many seats. Farage's party is a single issue party, however, and everything depends on whether the new PM manages to take the UK out of the EU within a resonably short time, perhaps by October. The Conservative party certainly faces an existential threat, but in view of the preceding consideration it is too early to think that it is likely that the two party dominance will be berought to an end. The Tories cannot afford to have a general election before Brexit is sorted, and this is a problem for Labour too, who are losing voters to both the LibDems and the Brexit party, so it is unlikely that there will be a general election any time soon.
 

notgivenaway

Ad Honorem
Jun 2015
5,787
UK
The EU election was much a protest vote as anything else.

I think the Tories and labour are too entrenched in certain areas of the country to not be forces. However, both will be damaged over this Brexit affair, and The Brexit Party got votes in many of the Labour and Tory areas that voted for these parties in the last general election.

Though the Brexit Party needs a long-term vision, or it will be UKIP 2.0. UKIP in many ways is now redundant, and Farage will be too if it doesn't further articulate its own vision and ideas. I don't think a general election will happen soon. May's successor would be foolish to do it, given the EU election result and how the public view the Tories in this Brexit affair. If I were Johnson, or McVey, or Raab, or whomever else, I would sign a deal with the EU, and ride things out until 2022. By then, which is a little time away, things may have calmed down, and if a good deal can be struck, then the Brexit Party/Farage would have their thunder stolen. His/their entire rationale now is to expose the Tories for their mismanagement, but a good deal and a thorough plan in education, healthcare, housing, transportation, etc. would dent them and maybe secure another term in office.

As for Labour, I think they are just as split on Brexit, hence why Corbyn hasn't been as strong on this issue, and why they too lost seats in the EU elections. Due to this, I believe May and Corbyn should have come to an agreement many months ago, and with their combined Whips, it would have been enough to pass through the government.
This should have been May's plan all along, and not call an election, or only consult Corbyn at the last minute.
 
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Jun 2017
2,988
Connecticut
The issue was it was a European election and seeing how much of the population doesn't want to be in the EU, this doesn't equate to general politics. Lib Dems are the only party to officially oppose Brexit so makes sense they get the most anti Brexit votes while Brexit party is the clearest way to show support for Brexit. This does not make Lib Dems a major party cause there's huge distinctions between Conservative and Labor on this issue Lib Dems were able to make themselves the alternative, they will not be able to do this generally.

In domestic elections there are naturally other reasons to support Labor and Conservative, these don't translate. People who are disgusted by Corbyn on Labour's position on Brexit for example could be enthusiastic proponents of Corbyn's overall program. That's irrelevant when assigning reps to a job you've stated your intent to terminate. It's a protest vote for everyone except those who believe they will be able to keep the UK in the EU.
 
Apr 2018
979
Upland, Sweden
I think so, the British electoral system seems to imply that happen.

Unless the tories make a complete fool of themselves, which is not impossible. My feeling (not being British I wouldn't know) is that many UK grassroots conservatives are quite unhappy with them, especially the way they've handled/ "handled" Brexit and migration related questions.
 
Jun 2017
2,988
Connecticut
Without getting too political about this, how can you differentiate between which parties are 'big' or not?The SNP has more MPs than the Lib Dems and has more members than the UK Tory party
SNP membership overtakes Tories for first time, pushing Conservative Party into third
Not bad for a 'regional' party!
Top 2 generally though I get yeah getting second technically qualifies.

SNP isn't major simply because it's part of a coalition where it is not the leader cause Scotland's population is tiny compared to England's. If Scotland were to become independent this would change within the context of an independent Scotland.

But per the Euro elections, most of the ordinary reasons people would vote for a major party were gone. This election doesn't show support for any liberal or conservative policy people might be passionate about, it was very much a referendum on the Brexit issue an issue the leadership of Brexit and Labour have not been viewed well on.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,002
Australia
There will be no Brexit in October. The new PM will be arrogant enough to think that he can negotiate a better deal than May so will request an extension. There will be no better deal. At the end of the year Britain will be exactly where it is now and calls for a second referendum or a general election will be stronger than ever.

The Australian Constitution has a relief valve for this kind of impasse called a "double dissolution". If any legislation fails to pass in the Senate on two separate occasions, the government can declare a double dissolution and is free to call an early election. With a normal election, only half the Senate seats are elected. With a DD election, the entire Senate is dissolved. It is assumed that if the government's proposed legislation has wide public support, then that Party will be returned to power with a greater majority and so can more easily pass the contentious legislation in the new Parliament.
 
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