Will the Conservative and Labour Parties continue to dominate the British Parliament

Aug 2010
16,027
Welsh Marches
#11
I think so, the British electoral system seems to imply that happen.

Unless the tories make a complete fool of themselves, which is not impossible. My feeling (not being British I wouldn't know) is that many UK grassroots conservatives are quite unhappy with them, especially the way they've handled/ "handled" Brexit and migration related questions.
That is true, there is a serious disconnect between regular Tory voters/party members and and many of the MPs and the party hierarchy. I don't think it is a simple right-left issue (though it is to some extent), more to the fact that many of the MPs are not really conservative in any proper sense, but are metroplitan careerists who largely subscribe to the liberal consensus that dominates the mainstream media, academia, etc., and view many of the people who vote for them with a certain disdain. The party has usually been able to get away with this because it needs to be able to appeal to floating voters in the centre ground, and people of more conservative or more right-wing views (as I have indicated, I think the two are not quite the same) have nowhere else to go, populist nationalist parties having less appeal in Britain than on the in some Continental countries; but it cannot get away with failing to deliver on Brexit or delivering a watered-down version, because disaffected Tory voters will turn to Farage's new party. By contrast to UKIP, which usually had mediocre candidates and some decidedly dubious ones, Fararge has recruited good middle-of-the-road candidates for his new party who will appeal to many Tory voters much more than the average Tory MP. It should be said that Tory MPs are pretty second-rate on the whole nowadays, the parliamentary party is dominated by professional politicians and no longer draws in people of substance who have achieved something in the outside world; no one could claim that most of the candidates for the Tory leadership are remotely impressive, or show any originality of mind, let alone cultural depth. So unless the next Tory leader shows real cunning and determination in dealing with the Brexit issue, there is a real danger that the Conservative party may suffer the same fate that the great Liberal party suffered after the First World War, and that politics as usual won't be resumed. The Brexit party is of course a one-issue party, but it just possible that it may morph into something more unless its raison d'etre is removed very quickly.
 
Nov 2010
7,540
Cornwall
#12
In the proportional representation EU elections, Brexit was first and Liberal Democrats second. Will the plurality in the district system cause the Conservatives and Labour to stay in control? Will there be another general election any time soon?
No chance, turkeys don't vote for Xmas. Be back to the status quo when this is all dusted.

Without getting too political about this, how can you differentiate between which parties are 'big' or not?The SNP has more MPs than the Lib Dems and has more members than the UK Tory party
SNP membership overtakes Tories for first time, pushing Conservative Party into third
Not bad for a 'regional' party!
Cheers my friend, been nice knowing you for 300 odd years. Enjoy independence in Europe, and without English cash support :)
 
Aug 2010
16,027
Welsh Marches
#13
To be sure, there won't be a general election any time soon, the Tories would be slaughtered and Labour have problems of their own, as is confirmed in their poor showing in the European elections (and realtively poor showing in recent council elections).
 
Mar 2015
1,341
Yorkshire
#14
There will be no Brexit in October. The new PM will be arrogant enough to think that he can negotiate a better deal than May so will request an extension. There will be no better deal. At the end of the year Britain will be exactly where it is now and calls for a second referendum or a general election will be stronger than ever.

The Australian Constitution has a relief valve for this kind of impasse called a "double dissolution". If any legislation fails to pass in the Senate on two separate occasions, the government can declare a double dissolution and is free to call an early election. With a normal election, only half the Senate seats are elected. With a DD election, the entire Senate is dissolved. It is assumed that if the government's proposed legislation has wide public support, then that Party will be returned to power with a greater majority and so can more easily pass the contentious legislation in the new Parliament.
Knowing absolutely nothing of the Australian system of Government, that is very interesting and might help us when the Lords continues to block or amend legislation but I can't see how it helps in this case. The problem is that we have a Parliamentary Democracy which has failed to reflect the democratic views of the voting public. The crisis is the "Parliamentary" bit - do we let our Representatives overrule our wishes or not?

The passion on both sides of the debate is very real and I see nothing but trouble which ever way the coin lands.
 
Jun 2016
1,805
England, 200 yards from Wales
#15
There will be no Brexit in October. The new PM will be arrogant enough to think that he can negotiate a better deal than May so will request an extension. There will be no better deal. At the end of the year Britain will be exactly where it is now and calls for a second referendum or a general election will be stronger than ever.
But would said new PM get an extension, if it is asked for in order to renegotiate an agreement that the EU has often said is not open to renegotiating (well, maybe it would be if the UK red lines changed, but that hardly seems likely with a harder Brexit PM)?
 
Aug 2010
16,027
Welsh Marches
#16
The question is based on a false premise because,if one looks at what the candidates have actually been saying, the new PM is as likely to say that the UK will withdraw from the EU in October if no changes can be agreed. And how can it be claimed that the new PM will be 'arrogant enough to think' anything when we don't even know who it will be, and most of the candidates have yet indicated their intentions in any case?
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
4,331
Sydney
#18
A singular effect of elections is that once voters leave one of their traditional parties ,they don't come back so easily at all
many who voted Labor because everybody in their circle did so for decades ,
have found that their voices is stronger when they switch
then their vote is less the subject of their traditional affections and more the object of hard headed reasoning
pretty much the same for the conservatives ,
if they are not the obverse of the dreaded Laborites , who recently died , what do they stand for ? ,
Is there a better choice which doesn't take me for granted
 

GogLais

Ad Honorem
Sep 2013
5,214
Wirral
#19
A singular effect of elections is that once voters leave one of their traditional parties ,they don't come back so easily at all
Not sure about that. The Lib Dem vote over the decades has gone up and down over the decades but the last GE saw the Tories and Labour have their largest combined share of the vote for a long time.
 
#20
Not sure about that. The Lib Dem vote over the decades has gone up and down over the decades but the last GE saw the Tories and Labour have their largest combined share of the vote for a long time.
That was partly down to ukip losing relevance, a slightly higher turnout and the smaller parties unable to field enough candidates on short(ish) notice. Looking at the polling figures in the runup, Lib Dems + ukip were both around 12% until the election was called, both dropped after that. Iirc there were a large number of undecided voters which skewed the polling figures towards a big Conservative win; once the election was called those voters rediscovered their loyalty to Labour and closed the gap (Theresa's campaign also helped in that respect).