Will the Conservative and Labour Parties continue to dominate the British Parliament

GogLais

Ad Honorem
Sep 2013
5,214
Wirral
#21
That was partly down to ukip losing relevance, a slightly higher turnout and the smaller parties unable to field enough candidates on short(ish) notice. Looking at the polling figures in the runup, Lib Dems + ukip were both around 12% until the election was called, both dropped after that. Iirc there were a large number of undecided voters which skewed the polling figures towards a big Conservative win; once the election was called those voters rediscovered their loyalty to Labour and closed the gap (Theresa's campaign also helped in that respect).
That’s sort of my point. At various times in various elections or opinion polls both UKIP and the Lib Dems have been in the 20-30% range but they both fell away at the last GE.
 
May 2016
321
Greater Manchester
#22
She's the worst PM since George Canning in 1827, but that's only because he was PM for just four months before dying of severe pneumonia and a gunshot wound inflicted by a Cabinet colleague.

She shouldn't even be PM. She only became PM because all the other contenders in the leadership race were either stabbed in the back by a rival or pulled out, and she was the last one standing. She wasn't actually elected by the Tories.
 
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May 2016
321
Greater Manchester
#23
There will be no Brexit in October. The new PM will be arrogant enough to think that he can negotiate a better deal than May so will request an extension. There will be no better deal. At the end of the year Britain will be exactly where it is now and calls for a second referendum or a general election will be stronger than ever.

The Australian Constitution has a relief valve for this kind of impasse called a "double dissolution". If any legislation fails to pass in the Senate on two separate occasions, the government can declare a double dissolution and is free to call an early election. With a normal election, only half the Senate seats are elected. With a DD election, the entire Senate is dissolved. It is assumed that if the government's proposed legislation has wide public support, then that Party will be returned to power with a greater majority and so can more easily pass the contentious legislation in the new Parliament.
I think it will be highly unlikely there will be a further extension to Article 50. I don't think the EU would want it - It wants to be done with the matter. And all 27 member states would need to approve it, and it's seems likely that France would say "Non!" Macron doesn't seem keen on the idea.

MPs can't stop No Deal Brexit, either. If the new PM says it will be a No Deal Brexit - as per the people's vote - then that is what will happen.
 
May 2016
321
Greater Manchester
#24
No chance, turkeys don't vote for Xmas. Be back to the status quo when this is all dusted.



Cheers my friend, been nice knowing you for 300 odd years. Enjoy independence in Europe, and without English cash support :)
Two thirds of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK.

Unlike the UK, which trades more with the world outside the EU than it does with it, and the EU is becoming less important each year to the UK for trade.
 
Jun 2016
1,805
England, 200 yards from Wales
#25
I think it will be highly unlikely there will be a further extension to Article 50. I don't think the EU would want it - It wants to be done with the matter. And all 27 member states would need to approve it, and it's seems likely that France would say "Non!" Macron doesn't seem keen on the idea.

MPs can't stop No Deal Brexit, either. If the new PM says it will be a No Deal Brexit - as per the people's vote - then that is what will happen.
Why is no-deal as per the people's vote?
As I recall the leave campaign spoke constantly of the great deal we'd get, with trading arrangements giving 'the exact same benefits' as now etc etc.
I really don't remember anyone recommending no-deal, though many rejected it - the Leave Alliance said "the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. "
(What’s wrong with the WTO Option?).
In fact in discussions elsewhere I've read several comments by people who voted leave (with the good deal promised), and are quite annoyed at their vote being counted as part of a mandate for something quite different.
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
33,015
T'Republic of Yorkshire
#28
As I recall the leave campaign spoke constantly of the great deal we'd get, with trading arrangements giving 'the exact same benefits' as now etc etc.
We haven;t even got as far as negotiating future trading arrangements yet because Parliament can't even pass the agreement for the two year withdrawal period.
 
Jun 2016
1,805
England, 200 yards from Wales
#29
We haven;t even got as far as negotiating future trading arrangements yet because Parliament can't even pass the agreement for the two year withdrawal period.
Quite true, I am just querying the suggestion that no-deal was what the leave vote was all about.
The fact is , I reckon, that no deal is a nonsense unless you really mean no deal ever (which really would be against what was voted about).
After all the EU has been quite clear that before any deal-negotiating can start it will be necessary to sort out things like outstanding payments and, especially, the Irish border. If that latter thing has to be settled eventually why not do it now and arrange a deal sensibly with the proper transition period?
 
Jan 2017
1,194
Durham
#30
In the proportional representation EU elections, Brexit was first and Liberal Democrats second. Will the plurality in the district system cause the Conservatives and Labour to stay in control? Will there be another general election any time soon?
I think a change in the political landscape in Britain is long overdue, particularly as the ideals of the Labour Party lack relevance in today's world.

People simply voted against the main two parties out of a need to make the point that in the event they aren't going to carry out the people's wishes, then the people won't further their careers.

Whether or not that will follow in the medium to long term is unclear at this juncture, but the trajectory is a move away from the main two parties, particularly the Labour Party who only 15 years ago could count on the majority of votes from the old, industrial heartlands of the North - but that is changing rapidly.

I'm from the old, industrial part of the North, and we're pretty traditional in this country, so in one sense it's sad to see a political party, which actually had a far greater attachment to the people here given its deep roots in this area, go by the wayside; but for the good of the country I think Labour has ran its course.