Without WWII (but with WWI), which European monarchies were the most likely to get overthrown?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,804
SoCal
#1
In a scenario where WWI occurs but WWII doesn't, which European monarchies (out of those European countries who were monarchies in 1932) were the most likely to get overthrown at some future point in time (as in, sometime after 1932)?

For the record, here is a map of European monarchies in 1930 (red are monarchies and blue are republics):



The only difference in 1932 is that Spain becomes a republic (before becoming a monarchy again after WWII in real life).

Any thoughts on this?

@deaf tuner: What are your thoughts on this?
 
Mar 2016
1,193
Australia
#2
I feel like it would be more helpful to differentiate between genuine monarchies and crowned republics. Because history has shown that so long as the monarch has no real power, they will still nominally be the head of state. But this is a completely different scenario to countries where the monarchs had some degree of real power (mostly in Eastern Europe, following WWI).
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,804
SoCal
#5
I feel like it would be more helpful to differentiate between genuine monarchies and crowned republics. Because history has shown that so long as the monarch has no real power, they will still nominally be the head of state. But this is a completely different scenario to countries where the monarchs had some degree of real power (mostly in Eastern Europe, following WWI).
Well, the crowned republics are in the north and west while the "real" monarchies are in the south.
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,046
Republika Srpska
#6
Eh, although Hungary was technically a monarchy, the king never returned permanently (and was even stopped from doing so by this "kingdom" of Hungary) and it was basically a dictatorship ruled by Horthy. Their designation as a monarchy was only on paper.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,804
SoCal
#7
Eh, although Hungary was technically a monarchy, the king never returned permanently (and was even stopped from doing so by this "kingdom" of Hungary) and it was basically a dictatorship ruled by Horthy. Their designation as a monarchy was only on paper.
Sure, but it's possible that it would have become more than a paper monarchy after Horthy's death. Franco also officially restored the Spanish monarchy decades before Spain actually once again had a monarch--which only occurred after Franco's death.
 
Jun 2018
471
New Hampshire
#8
All those which were overthrown with the exception of Italy. Without the Second World War, fascism likely would not be held in the same level of disdain it is today. And there would have been no need to replace the Italian monarchy which after the war was seen as complacent in the crimes instigated by Italian fascism.

Without the war, Italy likely would be a constitutional monarchy in a similar manner to Spain.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,804
SoCal
#9
All those which were overthrown with the exception of Italy. Without the Second World War, fascism likely would not be held in the same level of disdain it is today. And there would have been no need to replace the Italian monarchy which after the war was seen as complacent in the crimes instigated by Italian fascism.

Without the war, Italy likely would be a constitutional monarchy in a similar manner to Spain.
The monarchies in southeastern Europe wouldn't have been overthrown by external forces without WWII, though. They could have been overthrown by internal forces in this scenario--though this is certainly very far from guaranteed.
 

Tulun

Ad Honorem
Nov 2010
3,805
Western Eurasia
#10
Horthy's son was appointed to be a deputy regent in 1942, who then died during ww2 in an aircraft crash (he was a pilot on the eastern front). So without ww2 likely the regency would be inherited by him, establishing a quasi regent dinasty. Alternatively if the international political climate allows it, i could imagine a later return of Habsburgs to the Hungarian throne as constitutional monarchs.
 
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