Worst case outcome of the 1990s Bosnian War

Oct 2015
1,195
California
Would it have been possible for the Yugoslavian Civil War to have turned into a larger European conflict that drags Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Russia and finally NATO into a larger European conflict?
 
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Jan 2013
1,019
Toronto, Canada
Greece, Bulgaria and Albania didn't have a stake in Bosnia. Russia was a basket case and NATO was barely willing to intervene as was.
 
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Kotromanic

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Dec 2011
4,957
Iowa USA
Macedonia's guerrilla fighting of '99'-'01 would be a more fruitful topic for this sort of speculation. In that case Greece would have a domestic political interest?
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,728
SoCal
Would it have been possible for the Yugoslavian Civil War to have turned into a larger European conflict that drags Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Russia and finally NATO into a larger European conflict?
NATO did eventually intervene but I don't see why exactly the other countries on this list would actually intervene unless they're NATO members.
 
Oct 2015
1,195
California
NATO did eventually intervene but I don't see why exactly the other countries on this list would actually intervene unless they're NATO members.
Well, I'm thinking it could turn into a religious war since it was already an ethnic war to begin with. I mean what would it have taken for Albania, a majority Muslim country to intervene on behalf of the Bosnian Muslims?

As for NATO, the only NATO member country that I can think of that actually took a stand were French Marines at the Battle of Vrbanja Bridge during the Serbian siege of Sarajevo. On May 27, 1995 the French launched an actual bayonet charge against the Serbs to recapture a UN observation post that was overrun by Serbs. The Serbs withdrew and the French recaptured the Bridge. After that incident the Serbs never picked a fight with the French again. But what if they did and the Vrbanja incident escalated first with the French increasing its military presence and then finally turning into a heavier French involvement?

As for the NATO airstrikes over Belgrade in the Kosovo War 1998-1999, what if Russia got involved?
 
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Maki

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Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
Would it have been possible for the Yugoslavian Civil War to have turned into a larger European conflict that drags Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Russia and finally NATO into a larger European conflict?
No, but also maybe. Greece, Bulgaria and Albania had no stakes in Bosnia, but Albania had stakes in both Kosovo and Macedonia (the North one). So, let's say Serbia much, much more actively gets involved in the Bosnian War. Wouldn't that open a window for the Albanians to exploit Serbia's focus on Bosnia and try to make their claims in Kosovo, Preševo and Macedonia a reality? Would they use this chance? Maybe. Albania was not in the best shape at the time, but a nationalistic war could serve as a nice little distraction from the internal issues. See: Argentina in the Falklands War.

Would this turn into a larger European conflict? No, NATO was far too dominant and Russia far too weak at the time.
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
No, but also maybe. Greece, Bulgaria and Albania had no stakes in Bosnia, but Albania had stakes in both Kosovo and Macedonia (the North one). So, let's say Serbia much, much more actively gets involved in the Bosnian War. Wouldn't that open a window for the Albanians to exploit Serbia's focus on Bosnia and try to make their claims in Kosovo, Preševo and Macedonia a reality? Would they use this chance? Maybe. Albania was not in the best shape at the time, but a nationalistic war could serve as a nice little distraction from the internal issues. See: Argentina in the Falklands War.

Would this turn into a larger European conflict? No, NATO was far too dominant and Russia far too weak at the time.
What does NATO do with Albania in this scenario?
 

Maki

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Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
Well, I'm thinking it could turn into a religious war since it was already an ethnic war to begin with. I mean what would it have taken for Albania, a majority Muslim country to intervene on behalf of the Bosnian Muslims?
There is a saying: "An Albanian's religion is Albania". After the Kosovo War, they did not only ethnically cleanse the Serbs, but other non-Albanians as well, including those who were of Muslim faith.

What does NATO do with Albania in this scenario?
Probably tells them to dial it down, but does not bomb them or anything like that.
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
There is a saying: "An Albanian's religion is Albania". After the Kosovo War, they did not only ethnically cleanse the Serbs, but other non-Albanians as well, including those who were of Muslim faith.

Probably tells them to dial it down, but does not bomb them or anything like that.
Does NATO allow Albania to keep its territorial gains?
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
Does NATO allow Albania to keep its territorial gains?
Most likely not directly. They might do it indirectly like in Kosovo though. Kosovo is a separate "country", but it is basically little Albania whose people want to be part of Albania.
 
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