Worst case outcome of the 1990s Bosnian War

Jan 2019
127
Finland
Sure, but Kosovo's independence created a dangerous precedent. Russia already used it, who knows what country will use it next. If Kosovo can be independent, so can Donetsk and Lugansk. Of course, we must take circumstances into account, but in both cases the separatists (Albanians/Russians) claimed they were intolerably oppressed by the country they were seceding from and so they needed independence.
I'd say it doesn't matter. If the countries aligned with NATO and the EU decide that some particular region should have national self-determination they'll recognise it, and maybe China, Russia, India, etc will say "nah" because it means dividing up a country they have influence with. And vice versa. There is no precedence in international law. Nobody will care if Donetsk and Lugansk use precedence because not even Russia will recognise them.
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
I'd say it doesn't matter. If the countries aligned with NATO and the EU decide that some particular region should have national self-determination they'll recognise it, and maybe China, Russia, India, etc will say "nah" because it means dividing up a country they have influence with. And vice versa. There is no precedence in international law. Nobody will care if Donetsk and Lugansk use precedence because not even Russia will recognise them.
Yes, international law is changeable, but it would be interesting to see what would happen if the situation in the disputed areas change.
 
Jan 2019
127
Finland
Yes, international law is changeable, but it would be interesting to see what would happen if the situation in the disputed areas change.
I wouldn't say the law is changeable, rather the application is. How the situation in the disputed areas could change is that they return to status quo as that has been declared to be the lawful way, or rather, regards to some regions. Kosovo will be independent and other regions that don't fit the geopolitical agenda will be santioned.
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
Kosovo will be independent and other regions that don't fit the geopolitical agenda will be santioned.
Yes, but without Serbia's recognition, Kosovo won't be able to enter the UN nor the EU. It will remain in a perpetual limbo until one day the situation explodes and then...who knows?
 
Jan 2019
127
Finland
Yes, but without Serbia's recognition, Kosovo won't be able to enter the UN nor the EU. It will remain in a perpetual limbo until one day the situation explodes and then...who knows?
If the UN or the EU had the desire they would induct Kosovo into their midst if it were just a legal matter. That Serbia would go to war over that is what keeps it from happening.
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
If the UN or the EU had the desire they would induct Kosovo into their midst if it were just a legal matter. That Serbia would go to war over that is what keeps it from happening.
Russia and China would veto any move to get Kosovo into the UN and Spain already said that Kosovo can only join the EU as a province of Serbia. If Serbia recognizes Kosovo, then the issue is settled of course.
 
Last edited:
Jan 2019
127
Finland
How? Russia and China would veto any move to get Kosovo into the UN and Spain already said that Kosovo can only join the EU as a province of Serbia.
Well I was clearly overreaching there with my suppositions. You're right on their veto-powers for sure.
 
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Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,546
Republika Srpska
this resulted in a lot of non-Bosniak territories being put into Bosnia
Another thing to note: Bosnia is not only for the Bosniaks. They are the youngest of the three constituent peoples. It's true that Bosnian Serbs and Croats do not identify with Bosnia today, but that is also due to Bosniak attempts to present themselves as the only true Bosnian people.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,728
SoCal
Sure, but Kosovo's independence created a dangerous precedent. Russia already used it, who knows what country will use it next. If Kosovo can be independent, so can Donetsk and Lugansk. Of course, we must take circumstances into account, but in both cases the separatists (Albanians/Russians) claimed they were intolerably oppressed by the country they were seceding from and so they needed independence.
If so, shouldn't the Presevo Valley be entitled to independence (by joining Kosovo) as well? I mean, if even a post-Milosevic Serbia can't be trusted to treat Kosovar Albanians well, how exactly can they be trusted to treat Presevo Valley Albanians well?

For that matter, why should Kosovo Serbs be forced to remain in Kosovo if they fear that they won't be treated well? As in, why not allow northern Kosovo to secede from Kosovo and join Serbia so that at least some of the Serbs in Kosovo will be free of Kosovar Albanian rule?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,728
SoCal
Another thing to note: Bosnia is not only for the Bosniaks. They are the youngest of the three constituent peoples. It's true that Bosnian Serbs and Croats do not identify with Bosnia today, but that is also due to Bosniak attempts to present themselves as the only true Bosnian people.
What is interesting is that the pre-WWII Yugoslav government did not attempt to create a territorial unit out of all of Bosnia like the post-WWII Yugoslav government did. In the 1939 Cvetkovic-Macek Agreement, Bosnia was split and a part of Bosnia was given to an autonomous Croatia.