Would a second American Civil War break out had the Confederacy won the first one?

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,975
Republika Srpska
So, let's assume the South won its independence in the 1860s. We would have the United States and the Confederate States and there would probably be a lot of bad blood between them. Naturally, I assume tensions would be high. Now, my question is: would these tensions eventually lead to another war between the two? Perhaps over territories in the West or over the border states? Maybe the North would refuse to recognize the South even after losing the first war and this would be the trigger.

What do you think?
 
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Feb 2019
1,162
Serbia
Depends on how the South wins and what happens to the North in terms of damage. There is also a chance for the British Empire to support the South and if that happens I doubt the North would dare to attack.

Furthermore what happens to the French Invasion of Mexico? I don't know if the South would be willing to antagonise France in such as scenario and the North probably wouldn't be able to do much.

As for renewed tensions a rivalry is pretty likely however I can't tell if there would be full blown reconquest war.
 
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Jun 2017
734
maine
It mightn't have been necessary. The seeds for further disintegration existed in the Confederacy's constitution. The North would just have to sit back and wait.
 
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Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
6,171
US
I don't see that occurring, at least within a generation of the first. With all the bloodshed, loss and pain, it would take a subsequent generation to undertake such a task. Now if the North continued to develop industrially and technologically, filled with European immigrants, as actually occurred, then perhaps within several decades the North may have grown to be significantly stronger than the South and would have tried again. As for European immigration to the north, without Blacks migrating from the south at the turn of the 20th century, perhaps even more European immigrants would have been needed and came.
 
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Apr 2019
80
U.S.A.
I think that the south would have eventually had to give up slavery anyways. During the reconstruction era, when the south was beginning to install the jim crow stance, the north was reluctant to send troops or assist the african-americans. I believe a war weary north would have tippy-toed threw their differences and I believe the south would have been pretty sick of war as well and taken the simular methods as the north.
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
5,009
Dispargum
The most likely scenario for Southern victory was if the North gave up through war weariness. This means that at the end of the war there would be little, if any, interest in the North to continue or resume fighting. This weariness would continue for at least a decade maybe longer. As Roger says, before a second war could be fought a new generation would have to grow up that had no memory of the first war. Further, the North's primary motivation to fight the war was to preserve the union. If the South was independent for a decade or more, there is effectively no union to preserve. Nor do I see any desire to restore the old union. The longer the South remained independent, the more the North would learn to get along without the South.

The South, by breaking away, forfiets any claim to the western frontier that it did not control at the end of the war. If the Confederacy tried expanding into the west, it risked provoking a new war with the US. I doubt the Confederacy would have much interest in the west, given that the climate was unsuited to slavery. An independent South had no need to add more slave states just to maintain balance of power against the North as under the Missouri Compromise. If the South wanted to expand, I think they would be more likely to try to annex Cuba or some other place in Latin America.

There probably would remain a minority element in the North that sought to abolish slavery in the South on humanitarain or civil rights grounds. I think a majority of Northerners would quickly forget that were slaves in the South. I am unaware that Americans in the 1870s were very concerned that slavery still existed in Brazil.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
So, let's assume the South won its independence in the 1860s. We would have the United States and the Confederate States and there would probably be a lot of bad blood between them. Naturally, I assume tensions would be high. Now, my question is: would these tensions eventually lead to another war between the two? Perhaps over territories in the West or over the border states? Maybe the North would refuse to recognize the South even after losing the first war and this would be the trigger.

What do you think?
No, I don't think so--unless the Confederacy does something really stupid like form an alliance with an enemy of the US. I really don't think that the Confederacy is going to be willing to risk its existence to acquire further territory from the US; after all, they'd view their sacrifices in the American Civil War as already being great enough as it is and thus not want to bleed themselves even further for something that doesn't have much odds of success. I mean, the US would be much more powerful than the Confederacy and thus the Confederacy isn't going to be able to defeat it in an offensive (as opposed to a defensive) war.

The Confederacy could try expanding into the Caribbean and perhaps into Central America and/or South America, but even this would probably be unlikely due to the fact that the US and Britain are both likely to strongly oppose such a move and even to initiate large-scale military action to stop such a move.

The one thing that I could potentially see as having a chance of triggering another US-Confederate war would be if an extremely massive number of slaves were to escape and flee to the US--thus creating a refugee crisis here. In such a scenario, it's not completely impossible that the US will decide to deal with this problem once and for all by finishing off the Confederacy. Still, if the US does this, it might only want to annex the northern part of the Confederacy and perhaps Texas as well while turning the rest of the Confederacy into a Black ethno-state (with the hope that this would be enough to prevent Blacks from fleeing en masse to the US afterwards).
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
The most likely scenario for Southern victory was if the North gave up through war weariness. This means that at the end of the war there would be little, if any, interest in the North to continue or resume fighting. This weariness would continue for at least a decade maybe longer. As Roger says, before a second war could be fought a new generation would have to grow up that had no memory of the first war. Further, the North's primary motivation to fight the war was to preserve the union. If the South was independent for a decade or more, there is effectively no union to preserve. Nor do I see any desire to restore the old union. The longer the South remained independent, the more the North would learn to get along without the South.

The South, by breaking away, forfiets any claim to the western frontier that it did not control at the end of the war. If the Confederacy tried expanding into the west, it risked provoking a new war with the US. I doubt the Confederacy would have much interest in the west, given that the climate was unsuited to slavery. An independent South had no need to add more slave states just to maintain balance of power against the North as under the Missouri Compromise. If the South wanted to expand, I think they would be more likely to try to annex Cuba or some other place in Latin America.

There probably would remain a minority element in the North that sought to abolish slavery in the South on humanitarain or civil rights grounds. I think a majority of Northerners would quickly forget that were slaves in the South. I am unaware that Americans in the 1870s were very concerned that slavery still existed in Brazil.
Excellent analysis, Chlodio! :)

I do agree that the longer that the Confederacy survives, the more likely it is that the Union is not going to be particularly eager to reacquire it. I agree that a new war is unlikely, but possible in one of these scenarios:

1. The Confederacy tries to expand into the Caribbean and/or into Latin America. This could trigger a US-British military intervention against the Confederacy in order to prevent it from expanding slavery any further. In such a scenario, the US might decide that the Confederacy should be finished off completely--especially if the industrial gap between the US and the Confederacy will grow even larger in the years and decades after the end of the American Civil War.

2. The Confederacy allies with a power that is hostile to the US--such as Germany during an alt-WWI.

3. Large numbers of slaves escape from the Confederacy and flee to the US. This could create a refugee crisis in the US that could motivate the US to act and to crush the Confederacy.

Of course, in the event of a new US-Confederate war, it's possible that the US would only want to reacquire the northern part of the Confederacy as well as perhaps Texas while creating an independent Black ethno-state out of the rest of the Confederacy. After all, people in the Northern US didn't exactly like Blacks.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
I don't see that occurring, at least within a generation of the first. With all the bloodshed, loss and pain, it would take a subsequent generation to undertake such a task. Now if the North continued to develop industrially and technologically, filled with European immigrants, as actually occurred, then perhaps within several decades the North may have grown to be significantly stronger than the South and would have tried again.
Completely agreed.

As for European immigration to the north, without Blacks migrating from the south at the turn of the 20th century, perhaps even more European immigrants would have been needed and came.
Or the US could have simply tried resorting more to automation. AFAIK, it wasn't yet clear that large numbers of Blacks were going to migrate to the North when the US largely closed its doors to European immigration in the 1920s.
 
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