Would it have been a good idea for Serbia and Romania to join Austria-Hungary before WWI?

pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
8,673
#11
No not at all. The Logic is an i9mperialist logic, teh only reason it exists to support the Hapsberg empire. Whichever way you slice it it would be a Hapsberg Empire. Tehre is one real constant I have learnt studying History, no privileged class throughout history has any problem justifying those privileges , how it is right they have those priveilges and some how it's actually to everyone's benefit (including those that might look disadvantaged) that they have those privileges. There is an existing power structiure within the Austria-Hungarian Empire, it's not suddenly going to wither away, those people calling the shots, are going to hang on to power, just changing the Monarch at the top is not going to transform society. If there is some decree opening up privileged positions to Serbs and Romanians, there is a certainly to be a lareg backlash from those who had the existing positions of power (and this very fact can make them hard to shift, and have resources to oppose and roll back any change) And if Romanians and Serbs are promosed equality , they are hardly likely to accept less, and each measure that is a shortfall will be bitterly resented.

In short it's the recipe for civil disorder and civil war. The basis of support for this sort of measure is basically non existent, maybe a monarch and few intellectuals, the existsing Austria-Hungarain Elite would be almost unirvsally opposed, and the way to win them over would be to rtun into outright imperialist venture giving teh serbs and romanainas nothing. Exsisting Romain and Serbian Elites, are harldy going to welcome going from being big fish in small pond to smaller fish in large pond. And the emergent nationalist sentiments in Serbia and Romania are not going to accpet it.

Reforming the existing Austria Hungarian state into some sort of federated state of equals for it's existing population is msiion impossible enough, adding Serbia and Romania just makes many times more diffacult than impossible.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,798
SoCal
#12
Futurist, Futurist, You and Your ifs ... !
Yeah, I bring a lot of life into this part of the forum--which I certainly consider to be a good thing. :)

(thank You for Czernin, I wasn't aware of that!)
Yeah, his memoirs (in English) are quite interesting to read and they're available for free at the Internet Archive. :)

Joining A-H ? Nope. We're in the rise of nations heights, everyone in Central and Eastern Europe was discovering, creating, promoting it's own culture, history, ethnos.
Technically speaking, though, joining Austria-Hungary doesn't necessarily have to be inconsistent with this. After all, I've previously heard that Franz Ferdinand flirted with a plan to create the United States of Greater Austria--which would have given autonomy to the various subject peoples of Austria-Hungary. Had this plan (or something similar) actually been implemented, then Romania could have joined Austria-Hungary as a federal unit--with Romania uniting with Transylvania as one federal unit inside of Austria-Hungary.

Alliance, that could be discussed. I'm not sure about Serbs (rather reluctant, to be honest) but Romanians weren't anti-German at the time and giving them Transilvania would make them good allies, IMHO.
Yeah, if Franz Ferdinand is actually willing to accept the loss of some of his empire's territory, then this would certainly be a great move on FF's part. He might prefer to have Romania outright join A-H, but if Romania refuses, giving Romania Transylvania in exchange for very close military and economic ties with Romania sounds like a great move for FF. After all, this would ensure that Romania will not enter any future general European war on the Franco-Russian side due to the fact that FF will have already given Romania all or almost all of the A-H territory that Romania would have wanted to have.

Giving Transylvania to Romania would ensure that A-H loses control of its Carpathian mountain passes (which would be a great defensive line in any future war), but this shouldn't be much of an issue considering that Romania is going to be solidly in the Austro-German orbit if/after FF gives Transylvania to Romania.

But that would be impossible because Hungary.

And if it had been done, A-H would explode: Hungary would never accept that. (after a century and two WW lost, most Hungarian still don't accept the idea ...)
Please keep in mind, though, that the Hungarians might have hated FF regardless of whether or not he would have given Transylvania to Romania. Indeed, I've heard speculation that the Hungarians could refuse to renew their union with Austria in 1917 if FF lives and comes to the throne. If so, and if FF is able to successfully reconquer Hungary, this would give FF a golden opportunity to reshape his empire however he sees fit--which would include the possibility of giving Transylvania to Romania. Just like the Southern U.S. after the U.S. Civil War, Hungary might complain and howl to the Moon about this new order, but it isn't actually going to be able to do anything about this due to it being decisively defeated, crushed, and completely disarmed.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,798
SoCal
#13
No not at all. The Logic is an i9mperialist logic, teh only reason it exists to support the Hapsberg empire. Whichever way you slice it it would be a Hapsberg Empire. Tehre is one real constant I have learnt studying History, no privileged class throughout history has any problem justifying those privileges , how it is right they have those priveilges and some how it's actually to everyone's benefit (including those that might look disadvantaged) that they have those privileges. There is an existing power structiure within the Austria-Hungarian Empire, it's not suddenly going to wither away, those people calling the shots, are going to hang on to power, just changing the Monarch at the top is not going to transform society. If there is some decree opening up privileged positions to Serbs and Romanians, there is a certainly to be a lareg backlash from those who had the existing positions of power (and this very fact can make them hard to shift, and have resources to oppose and roll back any change) And if Romanians and Serbs are promosed equality , they are hardly likely to accept less, and each measure that is a shortfall will be bitterly resented.

In short it's the recipe for civil disorder and civil war. The basis of support for this sort of measure is basically non existent, maybe a monarch and few intellectuals, the existsing Austria-Hungarain Elite would be almost unirvsally opposed, and the way to win them over would be to rtun into outright imperialist venture giving teh serbs and romanainas nothing. Exsisting Romain and Serbian Elites, are harldy going to welcome going from being big fish in small pond to smaller fish in large pond. And the emergent nationalist sentiments in Serbia and Romania are not going to accpet it.

Reforming the existing Austria Hungarian state into some sort of federated state of equals for it's existing population is msiion impossible enough, adding Serbia and Romania just makes many times more diffacult than impossible.
Good points!

Anyway, what about A-H simply giving Transylvania and perhaps Bukovina as well to Romania in exchange for closer economic and military ties?