Would (most of) the USSR have survived if that Aug. 1991 coup attempt never occurred?

Futurist

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May 2014
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Basically, it appears that all 9 of the SSRs who participated in this March 17, 1991 referendum voted to keep the Soviet Union:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union_referendum,_1991

Thus, what I am wondering about is this--if that August 1991 coup attempt would have never occurred, then would (most of) the USSR (Soviet Union) have survived (in some form)?

Any thoughts on this?
 

starman

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Jan 2014
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Connecticut
By then the USSR was too far gone. Too many party members too demoralized, and the people wanted change.
 

deaf tuner

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Oct 2013
14,633
Europix
As already said, nope : the coup was just the burial, CCCP was dead.

But up to a limit, the RF position, relations with former Soviet republics could have been a bit different.
 

WeisSaul

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Mar 2012
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New Amsterdam
Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all lost. The remaining 9 SSRs voted to remain with Moscow (though Ukraine demanded considerable autonomy I think).

Transdniestria will allow Moscow leverage over Moldova, Armenia was and is Pro-Russian, and Georgia will likely be put in its place by Moscow over the matters of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (perhaps the Armenians of southern Georgia would rise up as well).

A bigger and more aggressive Russia results in Moscow pressuring Estonia and Latvia on the rights of Russians and Russophones in both countries. Lithuania is also bullied into staying in line.

The Baltics are more of a buffer Zone than soviet satellites though.

Odds are Poland, Romania, and Slovakia will form an anti-Soviet defense alliance given the proximity of Russian forces. The Czechs and Austrians will be allowed into the EU, but Brussels will want to avoid a direct border with Moscow.


I think the Union of Sovereign States could have held together reasonably well.
 

Futurist

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May 2014
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Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all lost. The remaining 9 SSRs voted to remain with Moscow (though Ukraine demanded considerable autonomy I think).
Agreed. That said, though, will any of these 9 additional SSRs try to secede from the Soviet Union in the future?

Transdniestria will allow Moscow leverage over Moldova,
Agreed.

Armenia was and is Pro-Russian,
Then why exactly did Armenia want to secede from the Soviet Union in 1990-1991?

and Georgia will likely be put in its place by Moscow over the matters of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (perhaps the Armenians of southern Georgia would rise up as well).
Agreed.

A bigger and more aggressive Russia results in Moscow pressuring Estonia and Latvia on the rights of Russians and Russophones in both countries. Lithuania is also bullied into staying in line.
Agreed.

The Baltics are more of a buffer Zone than soviet satellites though.
Agreed.

Odds are Poland, Romania, and Slovakia will form an anti-Soviet defense alliance given the proximity of Russian forces.
Agreed, though Poland might also sign alliances with some NATO members (such as France and Britain) in order to ensure that there will never be any German revanchism in the East ever again.

The Czechs and Austrians will be allowed into the EU, but Brussels will want to avoid a direct border with Moscow.
Agreed. Also, I think that Slovenia and some of the other Balkan countries (such as Croatia) will still eventually be admitted into the EU in this scenario.

I think the Union of Sovereign States could have held together reasonably well.
Agreed.
 

Futurist

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May 2014
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Also, out of curiosity--what exactly would happen in Afghanistan after 1991 in this scenario? After all, I would think that the Soviet Union (a.k.a. the U.S.S.) will continue funding Najibullah's government in Afghanistan after 1991 in this scenario.
 
May 2017
68
Turkmenistan
Gorbachev ruined the country with new political mind.1-st reason of fall is trying to quickly move to capitalism,2-reason Chernobyl,3-reason unlucky war in Afghanistan and supplying mojaheds and their needs from Pakistan,4-reason weakening of control over situation.
 

Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
Russia might have been able to hang onto Belarus and Kazakhstan.
That's it?

Gorbachev ruined the country with new political mind.1-st reason of fall is trying to quickly move to capitalism,2-reason Chernobyl,3-reason unlucky war in Afghanistan and supplying mojaheds and their needs from Pakistan,4-reason weakening of control over situation.
How much of an effort did Gorbachev make to move towards capitalism, though? Indeed, wasn't Gorbachev much more focused on political liberalization rather than on economic liberalization?