Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,044
SoCal
#1
Here's the compromise peace:

-Germany acquires Poland, Lithuania, and Courland as German puppet states.
-Russia acquires eastern Galicia, Ottoman Armenia, and Trebizond from Austria and the Ottoman Empire, respectively.
-Neither side has to pay any reparations or indemnities.
-Germany gives Russia a free hand in Persia, Afghanistan, and the Far East (as in, East Asia) in any future conflicts which Russia may have there.

How exactly does this peace deal sound? Would the Central Powers have accepted this peace deal?
 
Apr 2017
1,180
U.S.A.
#2
The Austrians and Ottomans wouldn't be happy about Germany giving away their territory. I don't think Russia would be very happy with the swap, they'd be losing a lot of Baltic coastline and industrialized areas for some less useful territory. It would also be giving away border territory and leaving the capital vulnerable to future german aggressions. As for Germany giving Russia a free hand in the middle/far east, Germany couldn't do anything to stop them there anyway. Britain wouldn't allow Russia to invade Persia or Afghanistan. As for the far east, that was already checked by Japan.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,044
SoCal
#3
The Austrians and Ottomans wouldn't be happy about Germany giving away their territory.
So, they'd reject this peace deal?

I don't think Russia would be very happy with the swap, they'd be losing a lot of Baltic coastline and industrialized areas for some less useful territory.
They would also lose a lot of hostile Poles--which would be a plus. Thus, it wouldn't be all bad for Russia.

Also, maybe it's possible to relocate some of the industry in Poland and Lithuania to the interior of Russia. :)

Eastern Galicia would be symbolically important for Russia as helping to fulfill the reunification of the Russian people (the Russian Empire considered Ukrainians and Belarusians to be Russians). It would be nice to get Subcarpathian Ruthenia as well, but I think that Hungary would strongly object to this. That said, though, Russia can compromise on Galicia if necessary but not on Ottoman Armenia.

Finally, I really do wonder if Ottoman Armenia could become Russia's version of Florida in the long(er)-run.

It would also be giving away border territory and leaving the capital vulnerable to future german aggressions.
To some extent, Yes--though Riga would still remain in Russian hands and thus will continue to protect the Russian capital.

As for Germany giving Russia a free hand in the middle/far east, Germany couldn't do anything to stop them there anyway. Britain wouldn't allow Russia to invade Persia or Afghanistan. As for the far east, that was already checked by Japan.
So, basically, Russia needs to become strong enough to fight Britain and Japan--if necessary, both of them simultaneously. That's probably eventually doable as long as Germany doesn't also intervene in this war.
 

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
5,847
US
#4
I am trying to recall the turn of events for Russia. I know they had some very early success. If by 1915 or 1916 things were a stalemate, a grind, and if the czar had some insight into what was going to occur, as far as political unrest, then I believe the Russians would have accepted the deal. And I believe the Central Powers would have well. Let's face it, by 1916 it was obvious that Germany was carrying the Central Powers. If Germany wanted it (and why not, it is a very expansion east for them, always on their agenda), then I believe it would have happened.
 
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Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,257
#5
I really think at least the Germans in 1915 or 16 would not consider a separate peace. They wanted to win. They thought they could win. In the end they DID win. And what they wanted was a victory os such magnitude it would reasonably nerf Russia as a future threat altogether.

Part of the German post-war unwillingness to accept defeat in WWI was due to the eastern front being a war comprehensively won. Only to seemingly inexplicably suddenly end in overall defeat and national humiliation in the west. It all just felt wrong.

Germany thought it could win in the east, and it did. And then it thought it could win in the west, but didn't. All these kinds of scenarios tend to hinge on the German high command becoming convinced they could not win outright. We know that wasn't what they were thinking.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,044
SoCal
#6
I really think at least the Germans in 1915 or 16 would not consider a separate peace. They wanted to win. They thought they could win. In the end they DID win. And what they wanted was a victory os such magnitude it would reasonably nerf Russia as a future threat altogether.

Part of the German post-war unwillingness to accept defeat in WWI was due to the eastern front being a war comprehensively won. Only to seemingly inexplicably suddenly end in overall defeat and national humiliation in the west. It all just felt wrong.

Germany thought it could win in the east, and it did. And then it thought it could win in the west, but didn't. All these kinds of scenarios tend to hinge on the German high command becoming convinced they could not win outright. We know that wasn't what they were thinking.
Didn't Germany make separate peace feelers to Russia before the Tsar's overthrow, though? Granted, this was done in order to make it easier for Germany to win in the West, but this information is still interesting.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,044
SoCal
#7
I am trying to recall the turn of events for Russia. I know they had some very early success. If by 1915 or 1916 things were a stalemate, a grind, and if the czar had some insight into what was going to occur, as far as political unrest, then I believe the Russians would have accepted the deal. And I believe the Central Powers would have well. Let's face it, by 1916 it was obvious that Germany was carrying the Central Powers. If Germany wanted it (and why not, it is a very expansion east for them, always on their agenda), then I believe it would have happened.
Yeah, one would think that such a deal would have been in Russia's interests considering that it would have given Russia a greater chance to escape Bolshevism.

Good analysis, BTW. :)
 
Likes: Rodger
Apr 2017
1,180
U.S.A.
#8
So, they'd reject this peace deal?
They would also lose a lot of hostile Poles--which would be a plus. Thus, it wouldn't be all bad for Russia.

Also, maybe it's possible to relocate some of the industry in Poland and Lithuania to the interior of Russia. :)

Eastern Galicia would be symbolically important for Russia as helping to fulfill the reunification of the Russian people (the Russian Empire considered Ukrainians and Belarusians to be Russians). It would be nice to get Subcarpathian Ruthenia as well, but I think that Hungary would strongly object to this. That said, though, Russia can compromise on Galicia if necessary but not on Ottoman Armenia.

Finally, I really do wonder if Ottoman Armenia could become Russia's version of Florida in the long(er)-run.

To some extent, Yes--though Riga would still remain in Russian hands and thus will continue to protect the Russian capital.

So, basically, Russia needs to become strong enough to fight Britain and Japan--if necessary, both of them simultaneously. That's probably eventually doable as long as Germany doesn't also intervene in this war.
If Austria or the turks have a say in the deal, Germany may tell them to deal with it.
Russia saw itself as the rightful ruler of Poland and it also helped to round out its western border.
Looting industry would probably anger Germany, as it would make the territory less valuable.
I believe the Crimea and the Caucasus coast is already considered Russia's Florida. Many wealthy Russians would go on vacation there and that's why the Russians built up Sochi for the Olympics (after deporting the native peoples).
Russia tried to check Japanese expansion in the Russo-Japanese war, they failed. Britain also checked Russia in the Crimean war, Its unlikely Russia could fight both Britain and Russia; even with German neutrality.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,044
SoCal
#9
If Austria or the turks have a say in the deal, Germany may tell them to deal with it.
That's good for Russia. :)

Russia saw itself as the rightful ruler of Poland and it also helped to round out its western border.
Poles were a huge pain in the ass for Russia (rebelling twice during the 19th century) and also created a huge salient for Russia that was hard to defend, though. The Russian border in the west is much more balanced without Poland.

Looting industry would probably anger Germany, as it would make the territory less valuable.
So, there's not going to be any looting of industry. :)

I believe the Crimea and the Caucasus coast is already considered Russia's Florida. Many wealthy Russians would go on vacation there and that's why the Russians built up Sochi for the Olympics (after deporting the native peoples).
More coastline for Russia in this area never hurts, though. :)

Russia tried to check Japanese expansion in the Russo-Japanese war, they failed. Britain also checked Russia in the Crimean war, Its unlikely Russia could fight both Britain and Russia; even with German neutrality.
Russia wasn't as industrialized in 1856 and 1905 as it would be in, say, 1950, though.