- May 2014
You're forgetting the psychological effect of the US entry into the war on the Germans. Sometimes the psychological effect of causing one's enemy to believe in impending doom is worth an awful lot.Actual US involvement in the fighting was minimal and the Lack of AEF would not directly chnage anything much.
Completely agreed with all of this. In turn, this makes me wonder--would Britain and France be willing to sue for a compromise peace before Germany would have collapsed? Also, I'm presuming that imports from the East are not going to be able to save the Germans in this scenario, correct?However there are two bigger issues
(a) without the pressure of US entry into war and the immense amount of fresh troops the Germans may not have embarked on their massive 1918 offensives which broke the German army as a fighting force.
(b) with US credit, large amounts of material woudl not have been soucred from the USA. Purchaused would not have totally stopped as godl exports and other exports would have been enough to pay for significnat but much smaller amount of imports from the USA. (mostly likely causing a recession in the USA) This would have greatly reduced the abilty of the Entente to make large scale ofensives on the western front.
but the lack of US entry into war would not have changed much for the Ottomans, Bulgarians and Austria-Hungarains whuch would haver collasped and sought pecae on any terms inlate 1918 anyway, freeing up significnat Entente resources.
US Entry would also have had an upside, million tons of Entente shipping freed up form transportingt and supplying AEF in 1917, and 2 million tons in 1918. France and Britain equiped the AEF with artillery, machine guns, tanks and aircraft , the decrease in resources froml;ack of US material would be signifnctaly offset by these savings (though I;m pretty sure a significant deficit would remain,)
So in an 1918-19 where the Germans hodl the Hindenberg line in greater strnegth and the Entente is unable to resource large scale offensives, what does the stalmate mean for both sides. Well the Central powers economic collapse is much more prounced and woudl be reduced to just Germany which would feeling internal stability problems.
Also, if Britain and France do win due to German collapse, are they going to aim for an even harsher peace treaty considering that they would know from the very beginning that the Americans are not going to help them enforce this peace treaty?