Pearl Harbor - who knew?

Pim

Joined Feb 2013
53 Posts | 0+
Adelaide, Australia
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Just askin' ... :)

Let's face it, when you look at Churchill's speech to the House of Commons on 4 June 1940, his "We will fight them on the beaches" speech - and here's the last bit of that speech:

Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.

... and a fortnight later, on announcing to the British Parliament that France had fallen to the Germans and that Britain would be next in the firing line, his game plan becomes obvious, and that was to hold out for an American entry into the war:

What General Weygand called the Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilization. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and might of the enemy must very soon be turned on us. Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this Island or lose the war. If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be free and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour."

It was a correct strategy and based on the time-honoured British strategy, probably going back to the Armada, of keeping an enemy confined to continental Europe and denying him the island of Britain. In the case of WW2 it was "hang in there until the US Cavalry arrives". The US "cavalry" did begin to arrive 18 months later and the rest is history, but those 18 months were a close run thing and the entry of the US into the War was not guaranteed.

Which is why Pearl Harbor is so interesting. If you apply the "cui bono?" (= who benefits?) test to Pearl Harbor you'd have to conclude that the greatest beneficiaries of Pearl Harbor were the British since it pushed the Americans into the War and that changed ... well ... everything!

I'm not suggesting that it was all a British plot. Nothing so crass. But Bletchley Park was a fine British institution which had successfully broken all Axis codes by 1940 - including the Japanese. One of them was one of our guys - Capt Eric Nave RAN (Royal Australian Navy). By Pearl Harbor the British had long been in a position, with listening posts throughout the Pacific from Singapore to Hong Kong, to eavesdrop on all Japanese radio chatter and to decode encrypted messages.

They would have known something was up. What didn't they tell the Americans? I'd be surprised if Pearl Harbor and the subsequent entry of the US into the war didn't cause the odd champagne glass to be raised in London.
 
Joined Nov 2010
10,011 Posts | 3,078+
Stockport Cheshire UK
Who knew...the Japanese :)
After that nobody. The Japanese task force kept a strict radio silence, so there were no messages to decode which would have given the USA warning of the attack.
 
Joined Mar 2013
485 Posts | 2+
Moscow
There were suggestions that F.Roosevelt knew about Japan plans to attack and didn't take measures to save Pearl Harbour, because he needed an excuse to enter the war. USA couldn't admit capture of China by Japan and occupation of Britain by Hitler, but American people didn't want war. After humiliating defeat there was no choice but war.
 
Joined Mar 2010
9,845 Posts | 31+
If Roosevelt knew, why be completely unprepared???? And loose so many capital ships. Surely the better plan would've been to ambush the Japanese fleet and annihilate it, that would've still given the American cause for war, and struck a mighty blow against there enemy.

Also remember America did not decalre war on Germany. Germany decalared war on the USA. Another piont against the Roosevelt knew theory.
 
Joined Jan 2007
16,359 Posts | 31+
Nebraska
... Also remember America did not decalre war on Germany. Germany decalared war on the USA. Another piont against the Roosevelt knew theory.

But what if Hitler was in on the plot?

But seriously, the US was caught napping at Pearl Harbor on account of hubris. Everyone knew that the "little yellow monkeys" would never dare to attack the mightiest naval/air base on the planet.
 
Joined Nov 2011
8,940 Posts | 226+
The Dustbin, formerly, Garden of England
It is a bit of a bugbear of mine that only a few hundred decrypts of Japanese signals decoded by GC&CS are currently available and they date only from 1943 onwards. We know that IN25 was broken in January 1941 but there is no evidence of a smoking gun that information was witheld from the US, quite the reverse. The British (which includes the Australians) and the Dutch were working as closely with the Americans in the Far East as possible throughout 1941. Churchill leaned on the Dutch over oil supplies to Japan and joined America's goading of japan with sanctions and asset freezing although those moves did not seem to be advantageous to Britain.
As Lucius says, it was all about complacency. An attack was expected somewhere--but who would expect it on US territory so far from japan?
 
Joined Feb 2013
6,724 Posts | 28+
It should be emphasized that the USA was focusing on an attack on the Philippines that actually *was* launched on the same say (and led to a truly inexcusable moment of stupidity on the part of MacArthur that sent the disaster dominoes in motion there). What they did not and to a great degree judging from earlier Japanese performance *could* not predict was a simultaneous assault on the Philippines and Pearl Harbor as the attack stretched Japanese logistics to breaking point.
 
Joined Nov 2011
8,940 Posts | 226+
The Dustbin, formerly, Garden of England
It should be emphasized that the USA was focusing on an attack on the Philippines that actually *was* launched on the same say (and led to a truly inexcusable moment of stupidity on the part of MacArthur that sent the disaster dominoes in motion there). What they did not and to a great degree judging from earlier Japanese performance *could* not predict was a simultaneous assault on the Philippines and Pearl Harbor as the attack stretched Japanese logistics to breaking point.

Simultaneous assaults on Thailand/Malaya, Java, Sumatra, Guam, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Burma, Borneo, the Philipines AND Pearl Harbor.
 
Joined Sep 2010
6,431 Posts | 2+
There were suggestions that F.Roosevelt knew about Japan plans to attack and didn't take measures to save Pearl Harbour, because he needed an excuse to enter the war. USA couldn't admit capture of China by Japan and occupation of Britain by Hitler, but American people didn't want war. After humiliating defeat there was no choice but war.
i don't believe that roosevelt knew. if he did, he would have told the men at pearl harbor so they would be ready. the attack still would have occured but we wouldn't have had the huge losses we had..
 
Joined May 2009
14,691 Posts | 61+
A tiny hamlet in the Carolina Sandhills
Who knew...the Japanese :)
After that nobody. The Japanese task force kept a strict radio silence, so there were no messages to decode which would have given the USA warning of the attack.

I agree with the substance of your post. However, it should be noted that nobody in either Tokyo, Washington OR London was surprised that war began in the Pacific-only in the nature of it.
 
Joined Jul 2010
7,575 Posts | 16+
Georgia, USA
As to the op's reference to raised glasses in London, I believe Churchill said to one of his secretary's, Butler I think, something like, "So, we have won after all."
 
Joined Nov 2012
887 Posts | 4+
Virginia
From what I've studied, FDR was sympathetic to the British and French for a lot of reasons, but due to the Isolationists in America, couldn't really get things going. Of course, the Isolationists believed that another European war would be a repeat of WWI and wanted nothing to do with it. Even the Lend-Lease program brought out a storm of protests as we shipped to our European allies.

What FDR wished for was the Japanese to hold off on their conquests long enough to maneuver America into a war with Germany first, and then clean up the pacific.

Even with cracking the diplomatic codes, the intelligence folks are left to interpret what was said.....its not like anyone is going to send a message stating they were going to attack a particular place at a particular time with a particular force-Intel gathering doesn't work that way.

As it turned out, the few who were closest to predicting what came about figured the attack on Formosa and Indochina, possibly with a strike on the P.I. Complacency ruled the day-neither MacArthur, nor Short or Kimmel established a comprehensive patrol schedule which might or might not have helped.
The Japanese finding Pearl Harbor sleeping might have been a blessing in disguise. Almost all of the capital ships were raised off the bottom of the harbor and rebuilt to fight another day, instead of being sunk in deep water and lost forever.
 
Joined Jan 2012
3,888 Posts | 3+
seychelles
who knew?
of course, roosevelt and his new deal gang. they provoked japan by the oil embargo and very well knew about the attack since the japanese comms were decrypted already. this was a perfect opportunity for usa to enter the war as the downtrodden man.

american planes were parked closely so that they could be destroyed easily, lots of army leaves were issued, officers were swapped with the "special" ones sent from washington, old armored ships were kept in pearl harbor but the carriers were out on the drill (despite they did their yearly drill)
 
Joined Nov 2012
887 Posts | 4+
Virginia
who knew?
of course, roosevelt and his new deal gang. they provoked japan by the oil embargo and very well knew about the attack since the japanese comms were decrypted already. this was a perfect opportunity for usa to enter the war as the downtrodden man.

american planes were parked closely so that they could be destroyed easily, lots of army leaves were issued, officers were swapped with the "special" ones sent from washington, old armored ships were kept in pearl harbor but the carriers were out on the drill (despite they did their yearly drill)

Might want to read "At Dawn We Slept" by Gordon Prange. Probably the definitive research on who knew what and when.
 
Joined Aug 2010
18,694 Posts | 3,383+
Welsh Marches
Indeed, I'm more than a little tired of the stupid myth that Roosevelt had prior knowledge.
 
Joined Jun 2012
6,680 Posts | 786+
Texas
who knew?
of course, roosevelt and his new deal gang. they provoked japan by the oil embargo and very well knew about the attack since the japanese comms were decrypted already. this was a perfect opportunity for usa to enter the war as the downtrodden man.

american planes were parked closely so that they could be destroyed easily, lots of army leaves were issued, officers were swapped with the "special" ones sent from washington, old armored ships were kept in pearl harbor but the carriers were out on the drill (despite they did their yearly drill)

Not sure if serious...:zany::sick:
 
Joined Jul 2012
147 Posts | 1+
Earth
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Which is why Pearl Harbor is so interesting. If you apply the "cui bono?" (= who benefits?) test to Pearl Harbor you'd have to conclude that the greatest beneficiaries of Pearl Harbor were the British since it pushed the Americans into the War and that changed ... well ... everything!

I'm not suggesting that it was all a British plot. Nothing so crass. But Bletchley Park was a fine British institution which had successfully broken all Axis codes by 1940 - including the Japanese. One of them was one of our guys - Capt Eric Nave RAN (Royal Australian Navy). By Pearl Harbor the British had long been in a position, with listening posts throughout the Pacific from Singapore to Hong Kong, to eavesdrop on all Japanese radio chatter and to decode encrypted messages.

They would have known something was up. What didn't they tell the Americans? I'd be surprised if Pearl Harbor and the subsequent entry of the US into the war didn't cause the odd champagne glass to be raised in London.

What a costly way to enter the war. And an embarrassment for the British too in what is notoriously described military blunder in Malaya. And of course, its effects in the Empire's colonial prestige.
 
Joined May 2009
14,691 Posts | 61+
A tiny hamlet in the Carolina Sandhills
who knew?
of course, roosevelt and his new deal gang. they provoked japan by the oil embargo.....
Um.....Nice try. The Roosevelt administration used economic sanctions as a tool to let the Japanese know that aggression (in Manchuria, China, and Indochina) would not go unnoticed. That's the way the game is played.

.....and very well knew about the attack since the japanese comms were decrypted already. this was a perfect opportunity for usa to enter the war as the downtrodden man.....
Balderdash. Washington had, in fact, decrypted the Japanese diplomatic code and knew that war was coming. But there isn't a shred of evidence that suggests that ONI had decrypted any of the Japanese military codes. Layton, Rochefort et all are all in accord on this score. They didn't know specific Japanese military intentions for another 3-4 months.

....american planes were parked closely so that they could be destroyed easily.....
Wrong again. Lt. Walter Short, commander of the army aircraft at PH, repeatedly testified that it was HIS decision to park the aircraft as they were to prevent 5th columnists. There isn't a single piece of contradictory evidence.

.....lots of army leaves were issued, officers were swapped with the "special" ones sent from washington.....
More misinformation. There were no more army leaves issued that weekend than others.

Moreover, if they had been issued, it wasn't Washington that issued them, but rather, Short. And the notion that Short was acting at the urging of official WAshington is demonstrably false. In late November, Washington sent the famed "war warning" to Short, among others:

"Negotiations with Japan appear to be terminated to all practical purposes with only the barest possibilities that the Japanese Government might come back and offer to continue. Japanese future action unpredictable but hostile action possible at any moment. If hostilities cannot repeat not be avoided the United States desires that Japan commit the first overt act. This policy should not repeat not be construed as restricting you to a course of action that might jeopardize your defense. Prior to hostile Japanese action you are directed to undertake such reconnaissance and other measures as you deem necessary but these measure should be carried out so as not repeat not to alarm civil population or disclose intent. Report measures taken. A separate message in being sent to G-2, Ninth Corps Area re subversive activities in the United States. Should hostilities occur you will carry out the tasks assigned in Rainbow five so far as they pertain to Japan. Limit dissemination of this highly secret information to minimum essential officers. Unquote. WPL 52 is not applicable to Pacific area and will not be placed in effect in that area except as now in force in southeast Pacific sub area and Panama naval coastal frontier. Undertake no offensive action until Japan has committed an overt act. Be prepared to carry out tasks assigned in WPL-46, so far as they apply to Japan in case hostilities occur." (Italics mine)

.....old armored ships were kept in pearl harbor but the carriers were out on the drill (despite they did their yearly drill)......
Again, this was a decision of the local commander. On November 27th, the Navy Dept. sent the following to CinCPac Husband Kimmel:

"This dispatch is to be considered a war warning. Negotiations with Japan looking toward stabilization of conditions in the Pacific have ceased and an aggressive move by Japan is expected within the next few days."(Italics mine)

Yet in spite of these clear instructions, it was Kimmel who chose to have the fleet stay in port, contrary to WPL-46.

You're o-fer.
 
Joined May 2009
14,691 Posts | 61+
A tiny hamlet in the Carolina Sandhills
Might want to read "At Dawn We Slept" by Gordon Prange. Probably the definitive research on who knew what and when.

Indeed. In fact, Prange devotes an entire chapter to destroying the revisionists.
 

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